Unlike existing studies, we adopt a multi-sectoral approach and consider the full range of climate projections. Biophysical damages are translated into economic costs using a dynamic economy-wide model. Our results for Vietnam indicate that the negative impacts on agriculture and roads are modest, at least until 2050. Larger costs are caused by rising sea levels and cyclone strikes. Overall, climate change is likely to reduce Vietnam’s national income by between one and two percent by 2050 (relative to a historical baseline). Damages double under more extreme projections. Our findings suggest that there are benefits from pre-emptive action, but also opportunity costs from precautionary adaptation investments.
Arndt, C.; Tarp, F.; Thurlow, J. The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2012) 18 pp. ISBN 978-92-9230-54-546-8 [WIDER Working Paper No. 2012/82]