Scoping Study on Vulnerability to climate change and climate variability in the greater horn of Africa.
Abstract
This study aims to deal with the identification and analysis of the multiple drivers of climate change vulnerability in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and the different approaches to improving livelihoods and building adaptive capacity in relation to current CCAA activities. This includes an examination of the factors causing and exacerbating both biophysical and social vulnerability. A synthesis of regional projects is conducted in seeking to identify and target areas for future project development.
The report is organized to respond to the project objectives, beginning with a review of climate change scenarios and drivers and linking them to impacts on populations and institutions. We examine trends in future population growth and discuss these changes by casting vulnerability through the ability of social institutions to respond to current and future social risks. Apart from predicted changes in climate and climate variability, we note that growing poverty and inequality are key drivers of exposure with profound effects on production systems in the region. In Chapters 4 and 5 (sections 1-4) we further examine climate change impacts on social vulnerability, resilience through adaptations and provide examples of coping and risk management in the region. In the last section of chapter 5, we review the sensitivity of agricultural, health, water/energy resources and technological sectors to changing climate. Although some of these sectors provide opportunities for investments that would increase regional adaptive capacity, there are still gaps in the knowledge framework not just for assessing regional vulnerability but also for mainstreaming adaptation into the development process. Further on in chapter 6 we perform spatial analyses using national and sub-national data sets with a view to mapping regional vulnerability hotspots and identifying current and future trends in vulnerability. We map impacts of climate change from hotspots of climate change, changing population distribution and shifting crop-livestock production systems. Chapter 7, documents information on the severity of vulnerability distribution, coping and adaptation mechanisms from regional institutions participating in the CCAA program. A summary of their project activities provides the benchmark for assessing existing policy conduits and gaps in the current implementation. These gaps arise from applications of climate data, vulnerability knowledge and focus in current ongoing CCAA projects. In the next chapter 8 we combine knowledge from the review of climate change, sensitivity of development sectors and a summary of the activities of the project partners to scout for policy dimensions and suggest policy actions in the adaptation process. This analysis is followed in chapter 9 with an overview of implications for the existing projects. In this section we also propose a regional framework for vulnerability assessment and suggest some priority areas for consideration in future CCAA project call for proposals. In chapter 10, we summarize the report by offering recommendations for targeting during CCAA project alignment.
Citation
International Livestock Research Institute, 100 pp.
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