Research to assess impacts on developing countries of measures to address emissions in the international aviation and shipping sectors. Final Report

Abstract

As Market Based Measures (MBMs) to address transport emissions raise the costs of aviation and maritime transport, they impact economies due to increased prices for passenger travel and exported and imported goods. The main objectives of this study were to: (i) Assess the economic impacts of a number of MBMs on selected case study countries and globally; and (ii) Determine the possible, and most effective and efficient tools to address or reduce these impacts, where they are deemed undesirable.

The study focuses on a selection of case study countries which, based on their economic structure, were anticipated to be negatively impacted by MBMs for international shipping and aviation. These case study economies include: Mexico, China, India, Trinidad and Tobago, Togo, Kenya, Maldives, Samoa, Cook Islands and Chile. The policy options studied were Global Emissions Trading (for aviation and shipping), Global Mandatory Offsetting complemented by a Revenue Generation Mechanism (aviation), an International Fund for Greenhouse Gas Emissions (shipping) and the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) for aviation and shipping. Scenarios related to the implementation of MBMs have been modelled in such a way that they limit international aviation emissions to 10% below their 2005 levels and international maritime transport emissions to 20% below their 2005 levels. These targets are consistently applied as part of applicable modelling exercises for the designated analytical timeframe, namely 2015 to 2025. The business as usual (BAU) emissions follow IMO and ICAO medium scenarios (A1B and CAEP-M scenarios, respectively), implying that the actual CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping can also be lower or higher if they follow any other IMO or ICAO emissions scenario.

The main project report is accompanied by a series of annexes. These are:-

Annex I - Carbon Reduction Policies for the International Shipping and Aviation Sectors

Annex II - Specification of Market Based Measures for international aviation and modelling assumptions

Annex III - Specification of Market Based Measures for international shipping and modelling assumptions

Annex IV - Methodology and Models Used

Annex V - Economic results

Annex VI (Ten parts) - Case studies for Mexico, China, India, Trinidad and Tobago, Togo, Kenya, Maldives, Samoa, Cook Islands and Chile

Annex VII - AERO-MS computational results of MBMs for international aviation

Annex VIII. - Impact on the shipping sector

Citation

Anger, A.; Faber, J.; Koopman, M.; van Velzen, A.; Long, K.; Politt, H.; Comberti, C.; Barker, T.; Fazekas, D.; Błachowicz, A. Research to assess impacts on developing countries of measures to address emissions in the international aviation and shipping sectors. Final Report. (2013) 51 pp. + annexes

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