Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: A hybrid assessment

From:
Department for International Development
Published
1 January 2013
Document Type:
Working Paper
Theme:
Economic Growth
Authors:
Strzepek, K., Schlosser, C.A.

Abstract

Projections of regional changes in seasonal surface-air temperature and precipitation for the eastern and western Zambezi River Basin regions are presented. These projections are cast in a probabilistic context based on a numerical hybridization technique of the MIT Integrated Global System Model. Unconstrained emissions send the majority of outcomes in spring precipitation to a drying by 2050, although the total distribution spans both precipitation increases and decreases. From climate policy, the distributions’ range collapse considerably and the distributions’ mode lies near zero precipitation change. For surface air temperature, the most notable effect of climate policy is to reduce the mode value of warming as well as the occurrence of the most extreme increases.

Citation

Schlosser, C.A.; Strzepek, K. Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: A hybrid assessment. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2013) 26 pp. ISBN 978-92-9230-617-5 [WIDER Working Paper No. 2013/040]

Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: A hybrid assessment

Published 1 January 2013
Contents