Evidence on Demand was requested by DFID to undertake a rapid desk-based
study to provide evidence for understanding the relative strength of
climate signals compared to other expected development results. The work
is intended to help decision makers understand some of the trends that
are arising and how this is impacting vulnerability to climate change in
The study has been structured in order to briefly review the relative
strength of climate signals across four thematic areas:
- Health, with a focus on malaria;
- Agriculture, considering cash crops and food security;
- Urban and transport infrastructure aspects of economic development;
- Disaster resilience, including an analysis of migration, as this was
considered an indication where adaptation strategies were limited.
Other sectors, which might benefit from similar review, are noted at the
end of this report.
The research focused on key geographical areas for DFID such as
sub-Sahara Africa and South Asia. Latin America was not heavily explored
although a few cases studies were found.
Section one of this report sets out and analyses the key findings of the
strength of climate signals of development and the strength of the
climate signals themselves. This summarises overall findings in as a
‘traffic light’ (Red, Amber, Green) rating and sets out some of the
contested nature of findings, drawing on one example from Bangladesh,
before considering the strength of the climate signals themselves.
Section two summarises the evidence to understand the climate signals as
drivers of development. Finally, Section three presents an annotated
This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance
of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted
through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods
Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS)
programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and
IMC Worldwide Limited.
Essex, J.; Gallego Lopez, C. Rapid desk-based study: Understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results. Evidence on Demand, UK (2014) 69 pp. [DOI: 10.12774/eod_hd.july2014.essexjetal]