Rapid desk-based study: Understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results

Abstract

Evidence on Demand was requested by DFID to undertake a rapid desk-based study to provide evidence for understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results. The work is intended to help decision makers understand some of the trends that are arising and how this is impacting vulnerability to climate change in specific contexts.

The study has been structured in order to briefly review the relative strength of climate signals across four thematic areas:

  • Health, with a focus on malaria;
  • Agriculture, considering cash crops and food security;
  • Urban and transport infrastructure aspects of economic development; and
  • Disaster resilience, including an analysis of migration, as this was considered an indication where adaptation strategies were limited.

Other sectors, which might benefit from similar review, are noted at the end of this report.

The research focused on key geographical areas for DFID such as sub-Sahara Africa and South Asia. Latin America was not heavily explored although a few cases studies were found.

Section one of this report sets out and analyses the key findings of the strength of climate signals of development and the strength of the climate signals themselves. This summarises overall findings in as a ‘traffic light’ (Red, Amber, Green) rating and sets out some of the contested nature of findings, drawing on one example from Bangladesh, before considering the strength of the climate signals themselves. Section two summarises the evidence to understand the climate signals as drivers of development. Finally, Section three presents an annotated bibliography.

This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Citation

Essex, J.; Gallego Lopez, C. Rapid desk-based study: Understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results. Evidence on Demand, UK (2014) 69 pp. [DOI: 10.12774/eod_hd.july2014.essexjetal]

Rapid desk-based study: Understanding the relative strength of climate signals compared to other expected development results

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