This is one part of a two-part preliminary study. It is designed to excavate, through interviews with development field staff, perspectives and story lines on how international actors (especially development actors) can influence the degree of inclusiveness of political settlements. This is an interim step to a longer-term, more comprehensive study to assess the causal relationship between donor programming and political settlements. The purpose of this initial study is to narrow the field of inquiry by providing 'theories of change' that can then be tested. It comprises case studies on Burma, Lebanon, Nepal, Kenya, Somalia and Rwanda.
An accompanying study, more conceptually oriented, focuses on political settlements that follow violence or episodes or imminent threatened violence, to provide an exegesis of the argument that 'inclusive enough' settlements matter to stability and thus development in fragile states. That study is designed to help establish a research agenda that could test and refine that proposition.
Elgin-Cossart, M.; Jones, B.; Esberg, J. Pathways to Change. Baseline Study to Identify Theories of Change on Political Settlements and Confidence Building. Center on International Cooperation, New York University (CIC), New York, USA (2012) 238 pp.