This report presents and applies an analytical framework for assessing national-level socio-economic vulnerabilities to international oil price and supply shocks, and for mitigating the impacts of such shocks in both the short term and the long term. The report develops generic vulnerability assessments and mitigation strategy recommendations for four categories of developing countries: low income oil importing countries; lower middle income oil importing countries; upper middle income oil importing countries; and net oil exporting countries. The analysis is based on a combination of empirical data drawn from various international agencies, together with existing research concerning oil security and oil shock vulnerabilities amongst developing countries. It is accompanied by four stand-alone country case studies of vulnerabilities and likely impacts of oil shocks, each representing one of the four generic country categories.
Wakeford, J.; de Wit, M. Oil shock mitigation strategies for developing countries. Stellenbosch University, South Africa (2013) 95 pp.