A critical challenge facing lower income countries is to attract and retain health workers to work in rural areas. Using data from South Africa, this paper uses statistical approaches to model the movement of nurses between different parts of the labour market over time. The model allows exploration of the potential consequences of policy interventions that could be used to attract nurses to work in rural areas. It shows how interventions that may have positive consequences in the short term, may have more negative effects in the longer term. Such modeling is an important tool for those who are responsible for developing human resource policy.
Lagarde, M.; Cairns, J. Modelling human resources policies with Markov models: an illustration with the South African nursing labour market. Health Care Management Science (2012) 15 (3) 270-282. [DOI: 10.1007/s10729-011-9184-5]