Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security.
This paper focuses on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and the authors employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level.
This work arises from the Sustainable Crop production for International Development (SCPRID) programme.
Singh K, McClean C, Büker P, Hartley S, Hill J (2017). Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India. Agricultural Systems 156: 76-84
Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India