El Niño conditions developed in the tropical Pacific during the latter
half of 2015, peaking in December 2015 as one of the strongest El Niño
events on record, comparable with the 1997-98 “El Niño of the century”.
Conditions in the tropical Pacific are forecast to return to normal over
the coming months, with the potential to transition into La Niña
conditions during 2016-17. If this was to occur it would act as a
further strong perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system and lead
to further significant socio-economic impacts affecting many sectors
such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy. This report
analyses La Niña events over the last 37 years of the satellite era
(1979-present) and aims to identify regions where there is an increased
likelihood of impacts occurring.
It is important to note that this analysis is based on past analogous
events and is not a prediction for this year. No two La Niña events will
be the same – the timing and magnitude of events differs considerably.
More importantly, no two La Niña events lead to the same impacts – other
local physical and social factors come into play. Therefore, the exact
timings, locations and magnitudes of impacts should be interpreted with
caution and this should be accounted for in any preparedness measures
that are taken.
This report has been produced for Evidence on Demand with the assistance
of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted
through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods
Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS)
programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and
IMC Worldwide Limited.
Hirons, L.; Klingaman, N. La Niña 2016/2017: Historical impact analysis. Evidence on Demand, UK (2016) i + 32 pp. [DOI: 10.12774/eod_cr.february2016.hironsetal4]