This paper seeks to assess the extent to which severe or extreme poverty, measured at one point in time, can serve as an adequate proxy for chronic poverty. It analyses 23 panel data sets from 12 countries (China - Sichuan, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia - rural, Egypt, Indonesia, Nicaragua, Peru, South Africa - KwaZulu Natal, Tanzania - Kagera, Timor Leste, Uganda, Vietnam),. It concludes that severe poverty serves as a fairly reliable predictor of chronic poverty. Greater availability of panel data sets would make for a more reliable approach. Until then, severe poverty can be considered an adequate proxy for identifying significant numbers of the chronically poor.
McKay, A.; Perge, E. Is severe poverty a good proxy for chronic poverty? Evidence from a multi-country study. CPRC Working Paper No. 179. Chronic Poverty Research Centre, London, UK (2011) 25 pp. ISBN 978-1-906433-85-7