Initial Assessment of the Impact of Poultry Sales and Production Bans on Household Incomes in Vietnam
Pathogens associated with domesticated and captive animals pose an increasing challenge to public health and economic security at the national and global level. In the three most prominent recent cases (BSE, SARS, HPAI), timely gathering, assessment, and dissemination of empirical evidence has proved critical to response effectiveness. To support more effective policies for control and mitigation of disease outbreaks occurring in managed animal populations, we have developed an integrated methodology of risk, damage and response assessment.
The SPADA (Strategic Pathogen Assessment for Domesticated Animals) approach combines rigorous epidemiological and economic analysis to assess the effects of alternative control scenarios on disease occurrence and economic outcomes. Synthesising detailed data, computer simulation models, and GIS mapping, SPADA provides new capacity for ex ante, concurrent, and ex post policy analysis. In this report, we apply the SPADA approach to the case of HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza), a significant global human and animal health risk whose emergence may necessitate significant restructuring of poultry (chicken and duck) production. In Thailand and Viet Nam, where the highest incidence of avian and human cases have been reported, poultry production is an essential economic activity for the rural poor, and their livelihoods could be adversely affected by control strategies implemented to mitigate disease risks. Our results indicate that policies must be designed carefully to facilitate accurate reporting, conformity, and to minimise propagation risks and more adverse economic consequences.
PPLPI, FAO, Rome, Italy, 6 pp.