How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach
The strong interdependence between the developed and developing worlds surfaced with the recent economic downturn. Due to the global character of the economy, the downturn affected not only the North but also the South. In addition, the Official Development Assistance (ODA) is subject to a pro-cyclical trend in aid which falls when donors encounter recession. We attempt to answer the question of whether and how donors adjust aid budgets in response to various macroeconomic shocks. The main objective of the study is to explore the channels as well as behavioural consequences of unexpected financial shocks on aid budget adjustments in the short run. Crises are found to affect aid budgets and their trend through two channels: directly through lower revenues and indirectly by increasing fiscal costs through exchange rates and financial volatility. In addition, this relationship between aid and the donor economy is not solely economic as the donor’s internal political orientation also plays an important role.
Gravier-Rymaszewska, J. How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2012) 50 pp. ISBN 978-92-9230-488-1 [Working Paper No. 2012/25]