This paper analyses the impact of the Kenyan post-election violence on a hugely successful export oriented industry, the Kenyan flower industry. Using export information on all Kenyan grower-exporters, it shows that the conflict reduced Kenyan flower exports by 24% overall. It finds that the conflict reduced exports by 38% for firms located in conflict areas, mainly through displacing workers. The displacement of semi-skilled workers is also shown to have had impacts substantially beyond the duration of the conflict. Research also suggests that exporters in non-conflict areas reacted to the increased insecurity by transporting larger, more secured shipments to the airport less frequently.
CSAE Economics Department, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. CSAE WPS/2009-06, 35 pp.