Estimating the Global Impact of an AIDS Vaccine

Abstract

Estimates of the potential impact of vaccines have been made by a number of scientists using simulation modeling. This paper synthesizes the results of these modeling studies and applies them to the worldwide HIV/AIDS epidemic in order to estimate the global benefits of an AIDS vaccine. Without any further expansion of prevention efforts except for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs and without a vaccine, the annual number of new infections among adults and children would increase from around 6 million today to 10 million by 2030. An AIDS vaccine with 40% efficacy provided to 20% of the population (the Low scenario) would reduce the annual number of new infections in 2030 by 32% from 10.2 million to 7.0 million. It would avert 19% of the 150 million new infections that would otherwise be expected from 2015 to 2030. An AIDS vaccine with 60% efficacy provided to 30% of the population (the Medium scenario) would reduce the annual number of new infections in 2030 by 54% to 4.7 million. It would avert 31% of new infections from 2015 to 2030. A vaccine with 95% efficacy provided to 40% of the population (the High scenario) would reduce the annual number of new infections in 2030 by 82% to 1.8 million. It would avert 47% of new infections from 2015 to 2030, amounting to a total of 70.5 million infections averted.

Citation

Policy Research Working Paper 4, International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New York, NY, USA, ISBN: 0-9773126-1-5, 22 pp.

Estimating the Global Impact of an AIDS Vaccine

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