El Niño conditions are currently present in the Pacific and are forecast
to develop into a strong event peaking later this year. Events such as
this are a significant perturbation, or ‘kick’, to the climate system
and can affect weather patterns globally. This report analyses El Niño
events over the last 35 years and aims to identify regions where there
is an increased likelihood of an impact occurring. This analysis is
based on past analogous events and is not a prediction for this year.
After the brief introduction, Section 2 describes El Niño and discusses
what is expected during 2015-16, providing a summary of current
forecasts. Section 3 provides a summary of the historical global impacts
of El Niño, scenarios for types of El Niño and looks at global changes
in probability of extremes. Section 4 considers impacts by region and
country: Southern Africa, West Africa, east Africa, Central Africa,
Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA), Indonesia, Southern Asia,
Southeast Asian Peninsula, Caribbean, and British Overseas Territories.
This report has been produced by University of Reading and National
Centre for Atmospheric Science for Evidence on Demand with the
assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID)
contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and
Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL
PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE
Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.
Hirons, L.; Klingaman, N. El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis of Past El Niños. Evidence on Demand, UK (2015) ii + 17 pp. [DOI: 10.12774/eod_cr.august2015.hironsletal]