During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and
central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns
throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall
during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal.
The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger
damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in
less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and
effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property
(e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key
climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as
measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging
The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations
over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood
and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The
current report is an extension of this work providing information from
seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the
potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region.
This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a
monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the
average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a
definite prediction of weather impacts.
This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on
Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International
Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment,
Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied
Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which
incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.
Hirons, L.; Klingaman, N. El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015. Evidence on Demand, UK (2015) i + 15 pp. [DOI: 10.12774/eod_cr.november2015.hironsletal]