Dynamic Modeling of Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2 (HSV-2) Transmission: Issues in Structural Uncertainty

Abstract

The sexually transmitted infection (STI) herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a “complex” model, a “simple” HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced

Citation

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (2009) Volume 71, Number 3, pp. 720-749 [10.1007/s11538-008-9379-1]

Dynamic Modeling of Herpes Simplex Virus Type-2 (HSV-2) Transmission: Issues in Structural Uncertainty

Help us improve GOV.UK

Don’t include personal or financial information like your National Insurance number or credit card details.