Social transfers with long-term objectives have a better chance of supporting exits from chronic poverty. Mexico’s Oportunidades, the longest-running social transfer programme, shows that participation in the programme translates into improved long-term productive capacity of poor households.
To guide the adaptation of existing programmes, and the design of new programmes, programme designers should assess the long-term impact of interventions now, rather than measuring outcomes when existing programmes have completed a longer run. Further research is needed, in particular developing methodological strategies to enable researchers to simulate long-term effects of social transfer programmes in conditions where data constraints are strong.
Barrientos, A.; Niño-Zarazúa, M. Do social transfer programmes have long-term effects on poverty reduction? CPRC Policy Brief No. 20. (2010) 4 pp.