Demand appraisal for IMT and transport services: guidelines on methodology.
Abstract
Methods have been developed to appraise the demand for Intermediate Means of Transport (IMT) and Transport Services (TS) in rural areas of Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). The methods are based on measurable indicators to appraise \"real\" demand indicated by usage as distinct from \"apparent\" demand that would be obtained from questioning rural people. The latter tends to significantly overestimate actual demand.
The method is based on data collected in case studies in 5 SSA countries - Malawi, Tanzania, Ghana, Zambia and Senegal - on the supply, ownership and usage of IMT. Other data was also collected to identify factors affecting demand. The case study areas were chosen to typify common rural situations. In the areas in Ghana and Senegal there was high ownership and usage of IMT, in Malawi and Zambia there was average ownership and significant hiring, whilst in Tanzania there was lower ownership. In four case
studies the predominant IMT were bicycles, while in the Senegal study they were mainly donkey and horse carts because of the difficulty of riding bicycles on the sandy roads and paths. Ox-carts were quite widely used in the study areas in Malawi and Zambia although ownership was low.
Transport services were significantly available in only one of the study areas, that in Malawi. Here data was collected on the supply and usage of transport services on three roads, one with high availability and two with medium availability of services. Data was also collected from a fourth road with a similar level of traffic but without transport services to investigate factors affecting supply. The data was analysed to identify measurable indicators of demand.
These guidelines describe the methods developed for appraisal of demand and give details of the data collection needed to apply the methods. It is emphasised that the methods can only be claimed to apply to the case study areas but it is felt that the agreement on the demand for IMT over the 5 locations in different countries is sufficient to suggest that the appraisal method is likely to apply to other areas. The method for appraising demand for transport services is based on only one location and needs further
substantiation.
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Demand appraisal for IMT and transport services: guidelines on methodology.