Community screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum with artemether-lumefantrine to reduce malaria disease burden: a modelling and simulation analysis
Abstract
Background: Asymptomatic carriers of Plasmodium falciparum serve as a reservoir of parasites for malaria transmission. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic carriers within a region may reduce the parasite reservoir and influence malaria transmission in that area. Methods: Using computer simulation, this analysis explored the impact of community screening campaigns (CSC) followed by systematic treatment of P. falciparum asymptomatic carriers (AC) with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) on disease transmission. The model created by Okell et al. (originally designed to explore the impact of the introduction of treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy on malaria endemicity) was modified to represent CSC and treatment of AC with AL, with the addition of malaria vector seasonality. The age grouping, relative distribution of age in a region, and degree of heterogeneity in disease transmission were maintained. The number and frequency of CSC and their relative timing were explored in terms of their effect on malaria incidence. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the factors with the greatest impact on the model predictions. Results: The simulation showed that the intervention that had the largest effect was performed in an area with high endemicity (entomological inoculation rate, EIR > 200); however, the rate of infection returned to its normal level in the subsequent year, unless the intervention was repeated. In areas with low disease burden (EIR
Citation
Malaria Journal (2011) 10 (210), published 29 July 2011 [doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-210]