Commune-level Simulation Model of HPAI H5N1 Poultry Infection and Control in Vietnam
This report describes a farm-based disease transmission model that approximates the dynamics of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam poultry farms. During model experimentation the impact of varying different sets of epidemiological parameters on the number of infected farms, the force of infection and on the net reproductive number within a commune were simulated. The average net reproductive number (secondary cases arising from one infected farm in a vaccinated population), Rn, in the most lenient control scenario was 2.26. Current disease control measures are predicted to significantly reduce disease transmission but do not completely eliminate the possibility for circulation of residual infection (Rn=1.05).
PPLPI, FAO, Rome, Italy, 8 pp.