More than 4.5 billion people get at least 15% of their average per
capita intake of animal protein from fish. Fish is therefore a key
element in food security and human nutrition. Analysis of future fish
supply-demand scenarios suggests that farming of fish and other aquatic
products will need to double production by 2030 to meet growing demand.
About half of the demand for these foods is now met by aquaculture and
Asia accounts for the bulk (90%) of the global aquaculture production of
66 million tones. However, aquaculture operations in the tropics
experience higher cumulative mortalities and faster progression of
diseases and this could be exacerbated by climate change leading to
selection of virulent pathogens that have the potential to spread. This
can result in introduction and spread of more virulent pathogens to
natural fisheries and aquaculture landscapes, threatening a significant
part of the global supply of nutritious animal foods. Understanding the
interaction between climate sensitive aquaculture landscapes along with
their aquatic hosts and climate sensitive aquatic animal diseases,
mapping of potential risks, identification of suitable
adaptation/mitigation intervention strategies should be the focus of
future research and development, if we are to meet the future seafood
demand for 9 billion people by 2050. There is paucity of information as
to how aquatic animal disease outbreak dynamics are mediated by climate
driven changes and what impact this will have on the future of
aquaculture growth in the world, especially in Asia and Africa.
Submission to UNFCCC SBSTA 42 on issues related to agriculture in
response to SBSTA decision FCC/SBSTA/2014/L.14.
This submission was prepared by Chadag Mohan, World Fish Center, Penang,
Malaysia, with support from the CGIAR research program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
CIAT-CCAFS. Climate Change and Aquatic Animal Disease. CIAT-CCAFS, Cali, Colombia (2015) 9 pp.