A systematic review of the published literature was undertaken to
explore the ability of different types of model to help identify the
relative importance of different drivers leading to the development of
zoonoses hotspots. We estimated that out of 373 papers we included in
our review, 108 papers touched upon the objective of ‘Assessment of
interventions and intervention policies’, 75 addressed the objective of
‘Analysis of economic aspects of disease outbreaks and interventions’,
67 the objective of ‘Prediction of future outbreaks’, but only 37
broadly addressed the objective of ‘Sensitivity analysis to identify
criteria leading to enhanced risk’. Most models of zoonotic diseases are
currently capturing outbreaks over relatively short time and largely
ignoring socio-economic drivers leading to pathogen emergence,
spill-over and spread.
In order to study long-term changes we need to understand how
socio-economic and climatic changes affect structure of livestock
production and how these in turn affect disease emergence and spread.
Models capable of describing these processes do not appear to exist,
although some progress has been made in linking social and economic
aspects of livestock production and in linking economics to disease
dynamics. Henceforth we conclude that a new modelling framework is
required that expands and formalises the ‘one world, one health’
strategy, enabling its deployment in the re-thinking of prevention and
control strategies. Although modelling can only provide means to
identify risks associated with socio-economic changes, it can never be a
substitute for data collection. Finally, we note that uncertainty
analysis and uncertainty communication form a key element of modelling
process and yet are rarely addressed.
Kleczkowski, A.; Breed, A.; Matthews, L.; Thronicker, D.; de Vries, F. Characterising livestock system &#8216;zoonoses hotspots&#8217;. (2012) 28 pp.
Characterising livestock system ‘zoonoses hotspots’