This report is the outcome of a project concerned with explaining why peace endures in countries that have experienced a civil war. A statistical analysis (Cox Proportional Hazard models) was employed to identify factors that contribute significantly to the duration of peace. Six qualitative case studies of post-conflict peace stabilization were also produced and examined alongside the regression results. The main findings are:
- The duration of peace is difficult to explain. Many variables are insignificant in the regressions.
- The outcome of the conflict is significant: military victories, especially by governments, last longer than other outcomes.
- Settlements are more likely to break down than military victories.
- UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) variables (dummy, treatment, total number of uniformed personnel, troops, type of mission) are not significant.
- Settlements that are buttressed by UNPKOs are less likely to break down.
The case studies provide important additional insights and identify a number of factors that were important for the consolidation of peace. However, many of these variables are difficult if not impossible to measure using statistical methods either because the data are not available/reliable or because the variables elude measurement.
Caplan, R.; Hoeffler, A.; Brinkman, H.-J. An Analysis of Post Conflict Stabilization. (2015) 33 pp.