This report is the outcome of a project concerned with explaining why
peace endures in countries that have experienced a civil war. A
statistical analysis (Cox Proportional Hazard models) was employed to
identify factors that contribute significantly to the duration of peace.
Six qualitative case studies of post-conflict peace stabilization were
also produced and examined alongside the regression results. The main
- The duration of peace is difficult to explain. Many variables are
insignificant in the regressions.
- The outcome of the conflict is significant: military victories,
especially by governments, last longer than other outcomes.
- Settlements are more likely to break down than military victories.
- UN peacekeeping operation (UNPKO) variables (dummy, treatment, total
number of uniformed personnel, troops, type of mission) are not
- Settlements that are buttressed by UNPKOs are less likely to break
The case studies provide important additional insights and identify a
number of factors that were important for the consolidation of peace.
However, many of these variables are difficult if not impossible to
measure using statistical methods either because the data are not
available/reliable or because the variables elude measurement.
Caplan, R.; Hoeffler, A.; Brinkman, H.-J. An Analysis of Post Conflict Stabilization. (2015) 33 pp.
An Analysis of Post Conflict Stabilization