This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050. In the absence of externally funded policy-driven adaptation investments Ethiopia’s GDP in the 2040s will be up to 10 percent below the counterfactual no-climate change baseline. Suitably scaled adaptation measures could restore aggregate welfare to baseline levels at a cost that is substantially lower than the welfare losses due to climate change.
Robinson, S.; Strzepek, K.; Willenbockel, D. A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia. UNU-WIDER, Helsinki, Finland (2011) 19 pp. [WIDER Working Paper No. 2011/89]