Wild bird populations in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Question 1

Introduction

Accepted Answer

Why monitor bird populations

Bird populations have long been considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of wildlife in the UK. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there are considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparison between trends in the short term and long term. Because they are a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are better understood than for other species groups, which enable better interpretation of any observed changes. Birds also have huge cultural importance and are highly valued as a part of the UK’s natural environment by the general public. Although bird indicators can reflect the health of the natural environment more widely, those presented in this publication should not be used in isolation to infer the status of all other species groups.

It is not practical to determine changes in the actual number of birds for each species in the UK each year, but it is possible and more reliable to assess their status by calculating relative change, based on counts on representative sample plots surveyed as part of national monitoring schemes (see Main notes at the end for more details of the survey sources used).

Trends in bird populations are used by policy makers, government agencies and non-governmental organisations as part of the evidence base with which to assess the effects of environmental management, such as agricultural practices or woodland management, on bird populations. The trends are also used to assess the effectiveness of environmental interventions intended to address declines, such as agri-environment schemes targeted at farmland birds.

Understanding the bird population indices

Individual bird species population trends, based on carefully designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer experts, are calculated as a series of annual indices. These relate the population in a given year to a ‘baseline’ – the first year that data are available – which is given a value of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the population as a percentage of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra Accredited Official Statistics Release presents data trends up to 2022 in populations of common birds (species with a population of at least 500 breeding pairs) that are native to, and breed in, the UK, with trends overall as well as for 5 main habitat groups (see relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group). The release also presents trends up to 2021/2022 for wintering waterbirds, some of which also breed in the UK and a new index for birds in the uplands.

The charts presented combine individual species indices into a single indicator to provide an overall trend for each group mentioned above using a geometric mean - an average calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, where n is the number of index values. More information can be found in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The indices are considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends, but strong reliance should not be attached to short-term changes from year to year.

Assessing trends

Smoothed trends are referred to in the text, which are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. For seabirds, there are currently no smoothed trends. Smoothed trends are used for both long and short-term assessments as they reduce the short-term peaks and troughs resulting from, for example, year-to-year weather and sampling variations as well as good or bad breeding seasons See analytical methods on BTO website (Fewster et al. 2000. Ecology 81: 1970 to 1984). The most recent data point in smoothed trends, that is, 2022 in this update, can change in subsequent publications due to the smoothing process being applied to additional 2022 data included in future updates (see BTO Research Report on ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page). Results and estimates of change are based on smoothed indices but unsmoothed trends are also provided in the plots.

These trends are based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed trends are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI), which are a measure of the precision of these survey estimates: a 95% CI means users can be 95% confident that the true value of an indicator in a given year falls within the confidence interval around it. The width of the confidence intervals varies between habitat indicators because it is influenced by the number of species in each indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up the indicator. For the indicators derived from species trends that cannot be statistically evaluated by this method (for example, wintering waterbirds and all-species), a threshold of 5% is used to evaluate the significance of the change.

Throughout this release, assessment periods are referred to as:

‘Long-term’ – an assessment of change since the earliest date for which data are available; this varies among indicators and among individual species.
‘Short-term’ – an assessment of change over the latest 5 years for which data are available.

The data sets published alongside this update show long-term and short-term assessments for each individual bird species.

Alongside the overall index, the percentage of species within each indicator that have increased or decreased in the long-term and in the short-term is also shown. This is based on the average rate of annual change over the long or short-term, categorised by how much the population would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. These thresholds are asymmetrical to represent symmetrical proportional change in an index, that is, the opposite of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% increase), not a 50% increase. These thresholds are derived from those used in the Birds of Conservation Concern status assessment on the BTO website for birds in the UK.

The 5 categories of change are defined as:

strong increase: population increase of 100% or more
weak increase: more than 33% but less than 100% increase
little change: between a 25% decrease and a 33% increase
weak decline: less than 50% but greater than 25% decrease
strong decline: population decrease of 50% or more

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Question 2

1.  Native breeding wild bird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Trend description

In 2022, the all-species index in the UK, based on the aggregated population trends of 130 breeding species, was 15% below its 1970 value.

The indicator declined between the late 1970s and the late 1980s, driven mostly by relatively steep declines in woodland and farmland birds. The all-species index has since levelled off although the index shows a 6% decrease between 2017 and 2022.

Within the index, 24% of the 130 species increased, 46% showed little change and 29% declined since 1970. It was not possible to calculate a long-term trend for 4 species because their data series start in 2006 or later.

Over the short-term period 23% of species increased, 31% showed little change and 46% declined.

Figure 1.1: Populations of wild birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.1 in ods format

Figure 1.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wild birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 1.1 and 1.2

This indicator includes individual measures for 130 species of wild birds.
Figure 1.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 1.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 1.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
Figure 1.2: Data for 3 species that contribute to the calculation of short term changes, are not available for the calculation of long term changes.

Species breakdown

The 130 species of birds included in the index includes all widespread species, with populations of at least 500 breeding pairs, for which there are sufficient data to calculate a trend. Species trends within this index vary widely, from species increasing several-fold (for example, Cetti’s warbler, avocet, blackcap, buzzard, great spotted woodpecker, red kite and collared dove) to those having declined to less than a tenth of 1970 numbers (for example, turtle dove, capercaillie, willow tit, grey partridge, tree sparrow and spotted flycatcher). The main patterns and drivers of change are best considered by looking at the indices of species grouped by habitat below in Figure 1.3 and described in more detail in the chapters that follow.

Figure 1.3: Populations of wild birds in the UK by habitat, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 1.3

Figure 1.3 shows the unsmoothed trends (dashed line) and the smoothed trends (solid line) for the 5 main habitat groups of wild birds.

Question 3

2.  Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Trend description

Farmland refers to the 69% of land in the UK which is devoted to agriculture. Farmland also provides semi-natural habitats such as hedgerows and field margins that provide food and shelter to birds.

In 2022 the UK farmland bird index was 60% below its 1970 value. The majority of this decline occurred between the late 1970s and the 1980s largely due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management during this period. The decline has continued at a slower rate in the short-term; showing a decline of 8%.

Since 1970, 26% of species showed a strong decline and 37% showed a weak decline. Over the same period, 21% showed a weak increase and 16% showed little or no change.

Some species showed some recovery over the short-term; 26% of species increased, 32% showed little change and 42% declined.

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.1 in ods format

Figure 2.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.1 and 2.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 19 species of farmland birds.
Figure 2.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 2.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 2.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

The large declines in the abundance of many farmland birds have a number of known and potential causes. For a large part, declines have been caused by the changes in farming practices that have taken place since the 1950s and 1960s, such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland management (for example, a switch from hay to silage production), increased pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removal of non-cropped features such as hedgerows. The rate of these changes, which resulted in the loss of suitable nesting and suitable feeding habitats, and a reduction in available food, was greatest during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the period during which many farmland bird populations declined most rapidly. However, some generalist species such as woodpigeon have benefitted from increased availability of their food throughout the winter owing to the autumn sowing of crops.

Some farming practices continue to have negative impacts on bird populations, but most farmers can and do take positive steps to conserve birds on their land. In particular, a number of incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures specifically designed to help stabilise and recover farmland bird populations. These include the provision of over-wintered stubbles and planted wild bird crop covers to provide seed in the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic management of hedgerows. There is growing evidence that such action can deliver local recoveries in farmland bird populations and thus, if delivered at appropriate scale, wider recovery. Changes in numbers experienced by some species may, to a lesser extent, be further driven by other pressures. For example, there is evidence of an adverse impact from disease for some species, most notably greenfinch.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds.

Species breakdown

The farmland bird index contains data for 19 species. The long-term decline of the farmland bird indicator in the UK has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). Between 1970 and 2022, the index for farmland specialists declined by 72% while for farmland generalists it declined by 22%.

Figure 2.3: Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 2.3:

This indicator includes individual measures for 19 species of farmland birds, of which 12 species are farmland specialists and 7 species are farmland generalists.
Figure 2.3 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line).

Farmland specialists

Changes in farming practices, such as the loss of mixed farming systems, the move from spring to autumn sowing of cereal crops, and increased pesticide use, have been demonstrated to have had adverse impacts on farmland birds such as skylark and grey partridge. Five farmland specialists (corn bunting, grey partridge, starling, turtle dove and tree sparrow) have experienced severe declines in excess of 80% since 1970. In contrast, numbers of 2 other farmland specialists (stock dove and goldfinch) have more than doubled over the same period, illustrating how responses to pressures varies among species. In the short-term the index for farmland specialists shows that on average specialists declined by 8%. Turtle dove, has shown a marked change in numbers over this recent 5-year period, decreasing by 50%. Greenfinch continue to decline sharply, by 32% whereas stock dove and corn bunting increased by 21% and 28% respectively.

Overall, 17% of the 12 specialist species in the farmland indicator increased, 8% showed little change and 75% declined over the long-term period.

In the short term, 33% of the specialist species in the farmland bird indicator increased, 25% showed little change and 42% declined.

Figure 2.4: Breeding farmland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.4 in ods format

Figure 2.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.5 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.4 and 2.5:

This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of farmland specialist birds.
Figure 2.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 2.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 2.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Farmland generalists

There are 7 generalist farmland species included in the indicator and they utilise a wider range of habitats than the specialist farmland species. Since 1970 the generalist farmland smoothed index has declined by 22%.

Three generalist species have declined over the long-term period: greenfinch by 69%, yellow wagtail by 66% and kestrel by 54%. While rook numbers have not changed overall, and reed bunting has declined at a lower rate (-33% over the long-term), populations of two species, woodpigeon and jackdaw, have more than doubled relative to 1970 levels.

The index shows that in the short-term generalists declined by 7%. Two of the seven species decreased strongly over this short time period: greenfinch by 32% and kestrel by 13%. Greenfinch has been strongly impacted by the disease trichomonosis. Only one species, jackdaw, increased over this period.

Figure 2.6: Breeding farmland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.6 in ods format

Figure 2.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.7 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.6 and 2.7:

This indicator includes individual measures for 7 species of farmland generalist birds.
Figure 2.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 2.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 2.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Question 4

3.  Breeding woodland bird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Trend description

Woodland covers 13% of the UK’s land area, providing trees and other vegetation suitable for nesting, foraging opportunities and cover from predators.

In 2022, the UK woodland bird index was 37% below its 1970 value. The greatest decline occurred between the early 1980s and the early 1990s. The index was stable, at around 80% of the 1970 numbers, between 1995 and 2012, since when it has decreased further by 15% between 2016 and 2021

Since 1970, 14% of species increased, 54% showed little change and 32% declined, the majority of the latter showing a strong decline.

Over the short-term period, 8% of species increased, 30% showed little change and 62% declined.

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.1 in ods format

Figure 3.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.1 and 3.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 37 species of woodland birds.
Figure 3.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 3.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 3.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting woodland birds

The declines in woodland birds have several known and potential causes, such as a lack of woodland management (including the cessation of traditional practices such as coppicing) and increased deer browsing pressure, both of which result in a reduced diversity of woodland structure and reduced availability of suitable nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland management, such as the removal of hedgerows, adversely impacted many of the species in the indicator which have substantial populations outside of woodland, for example, in farmland and gardens. In addition, several declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline in the extent or quality of habitats used outside of the UK in the non-breeding season (in stop-over sites or African wintering areas) may be a significant factor affecting these species. Positive factors include the increasing area of woodland cover and milder winters potentially having a beneficial impact for some species.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds.

Species breakdown

The woodland bird index contains data for 37 species. The overall trend masks different underlying trends for specialist species, those which are highly dependent on woodland habitats, and generalist species, which are found in a wide range of habitats, including woodland.

In 2022, the woodland specialists index was 55% lower than in 1970, while the index for woodland generalists was 5% lower than in 1970 (Figure 3.3). Over the short term, the woodland specialists have decreased by 19% and the woodland generalists have decreased by 10%.

Figure 3.3: Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.3:

This indicator includes individual measures for 37 species of farmland birds, of which 25 species are woodland specialists and 12 species are woodland generalists.
Figure 3.3 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line).

Woodland specialists

Four woodland specialists, lesser spotted woodpecker, spotted flycatcher, capercaillie and willow tit, have declined by over 90% relative to 1970 levels. In contrast, populations of nuthatch have more than trebled over the same period and both blackcap and great spotted woodpecker have more than quadrupled in numbers.

The index shows that in the short term woodland specialists decreased by 19%. A number of species have shown marked trends over the short term period, with lesser spotted woodpecker decreasing by 52%, both wood warbler and willow tit by 47% and both capercaillie and spotted flycatcher by 46%. Whereas over the same period blackcap increased by 21% and nightingale by 19%. Trends in long-distance migrants such as nightingales may reflect changing conditions on their wintering grounds in Africa, and blackcap are increasingly wintering in the UK. Whereas declines in residents such as lesser spotted woodpecker, willow tit and capercaillie must be due to factors on their breeding grounds within the UK.

Overall, since 1970 16% of the 25 specialist species in the woodland indicator increased, 44% showed little change and 40% declined.

In the short term, 12% of the 25 specialist species increased, 24% showed little change and 64% showed a weak or strong decrease.

Figure 3.4: Breeding specialist woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.4 in ods format

Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.4 and 3.5:

This indicator includes individual measures for 25 species of woodland specialist birds.
Figure 3.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 3.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 3.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Woodland generalists

The majority of generalist woodland species, many of which have adapted to using gardens and wooded areas in farmland landscapes, have not shown a substantial change over the long term. Subsequently the overall woodland generalist index decreased by 5% since 1970. In the short term the woodland generalist index has declined by 10%.

Populations of 2 woodland generalist species (bullfinch and song thrush) have declined by more than 45% since 1970. Only one species, long-tailed tit, has increased (by 90%) in this period.

Over the short-term period 7 out of 12 species decreased, but only two of these showed strong declines. Chaffinch numbers dropped by 23%, likely due to the disease trichomoniasis, and bullfinches decreased by 17%. Five species showed weak declines and 5 other woodland generalists showed little change.

Figure 3.6: Breeding generalist woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.6 in ods format

Figure 3.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.6 and 3.7:

This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of woodland generalist birds.
Figure 3.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 3.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 3.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Question 5

4.  Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Trend description

Water and wetlands include rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, coastal marshes, other wet grasslands, and lowland raised bogs, together totalling 3% of the UK’s area and providing important habitats for birds. Species included in the wetland indicator are those defined as having a positive association with waterways or wetlands, and also include some upland birds and those also associated with farmland, for example reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

Produced largely using the population trends from surveys in or alongside wetland habitats, the water and wetland bird index has remained fairly stable for most of the period since data collection started in 1975 but has been lower in the last decade. In 2022 the water and wetland bird index was 13% lower than in 1975. In the short term the smoothed index decreased by 3%.

Since 1970, 24% of species increased, 48% showed little change and 28% declined, with more species exhibiting a weak rather than a strong change.

Over the short-term period, 19% of species increased, 42% showed little change and 38% declined.

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.1 in ods format

Figure 4.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.1 and 4.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 26 species of water and wetland birds.
Figure 4.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 4.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 4.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
In Figure 4.1 the lower confidence intervals for 1994 and 1995 were un-estimable, this is due to the high uncertainty around the population trend for Snipe which is a scarce species. As a result the lower confidence intervals on the graph abridges the two data points for 1993 and 1996.

Factors affecting water and wetland bird populations

The historical declines in breeding waders resulted from land management changes such as drainage, the intensification of grassland management and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and young can be vulnerable to predation, which is currently thought to be limiting the recovery of several species of breeding wader. However, a range of species, particularly those associated with standing water bodies, have benefited from habitat creation, particularly from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there has been a net positive impact from improved survival rates due to the trend towards milder winters.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.05 Evidence Statement for C5c Wetland Birds.

Species breakdown

The 26 species of bird included in the water and wetland bird index can be split into 4 categories for producing sub-habitat indicators. Although the index for all wetland and waterways species shows a relatively flat trend, this masks underlying and marked differences between sub-habitat indicators (Figure 4.3). When interpreting these trends, it should be borne in mind that each sub-habitat trend is derived from relatively few species’ trends.

Figure 4.3 : Breeding water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.3:

Figure 4.3 shows the unsmoothed trends (dashed line) and the smoothed trends (solid line) for the 4 sub-habitat indicators of breeding water and wetland birds.

Birds of slow flowing and standing water

Birds of slow flowing and standing water have shown the most positive trend, potentially benefitting most from wetland creation; in 2022 the index was 12% higher than in 1975 (Figure 4.4). However, the index has shown a 14% decrease in the more recent short-term reflecting a negative turn-around in the fortunes of this group in the last decade.

Over the long term there was a marked increase in one of the duck species; numbers of breeding mallards have almost trebled. Numbers of tufted duck and coot increased, and numbers of both grebes and moorhen fell, but overall at low rates.

In the short term, 2 species (mallard and moorhen) showed little change whereas 4 species declined. Numbers of tufted duck, coot and both grebe species showed strong declines of between 15% and 22%.

Figure 4.4: Breeding birds of slow flowing and standing water in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.4 in ods format

Figure 4.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of slow flowing and standing water in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.4 and 4.5:

This indicator includes individual measures for 6 species for birds of slow flowing and standing water.
Figure 4.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 4.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 4.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of fast flowing water

The index for birds of fast flowing water was 20% lower in 2022 than in 1975. Like the overall indicator for breeding wetland and waterways birds, it dipped during 2010 to 2013, although not as low as in the early eighties, and has decreased by 7% in the short term (Figure 4.6). Although all the 4 species which make up this indicator are dependent on food from water, they share another characteristic of being found mainly in upland areas.

The index for common sandpiper has declined by 53%, while numbers of goosander have more than doubled over the long term.

In the short term the indices for common sandpiper and dipper declined by 14% and 16% respectively, while the indices for goosander and grey wagtail showed little or no change.

Figure 4.6: Breeding birds of fast flowing water in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.6 in ods format

Figure 4.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of fast flowing water in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.6 and 4.7:

This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species for birds of fast flowing water.
Figure 4.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 4.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 4.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of reedbeds

The index for birds of reedbeds it made up of 4 species. In 2022 it was 16% higher than in 1975 (Figure 4.8). In the short term it increased by 8%.

In the long term, reed bunting and sedge warbler have shown declines in wetland habitats, of 69% and 49% respectively. In contrast Cetti’s warbler has shown a 9-fold increase since 1988 (when the species exceeded the 500 pair threshold for inclusion in the indicator, following the colonisation of the UK in 1972) and reed warblers have almost doubled in numbers since 1981.

More recently, in the short-term, reed bunting have declined by 11%, whilst sedge warbler and reed warbler showed little change. Cetti’s warbler increased strongly, by 27%.

Figure 4.8: Breeding birds of reedbeds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.8 in ods format

Figure 4.9: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of reedbeds in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.9 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.8 and 4.9:

This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species for birds of reedbeds.
Figure 4.8 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 4.9 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 4.9 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of wet grassland

The index for birds of wet grassland, which is made up of 8 species, was 51% lower in 2022 than in 1975 (Figure 4.10). The majority of the decline, which has been driven by drainage and the loss of habitat, occurred between the peak in the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. More recently the indicator has shown signs of stability; the indicator shows no change in the short term.

Over the long term, the two wildfowl species (mute swan and teal) have shown an increase. In contrast, yellow wagtail (in wetland habitats) declined strongly, by 96% and three of the waders showed declines, snipe strongly by 81% and redshank and lapwing by about 65%.

Over the short term, yellow wagtail increased by 32% along waterways from low numbers following its decline in the long term. Numbers of lapwing and redshank fell strongly by 30% and 21% respectively. The indices for snipe and mute swan show little change but little egret, which was included for the first time in 2006 and therefore not assessed over the long-term period, has increased by 25% since 2013.

Figure 4.10: Breeding birds of wet grassland in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.10 in ods format

Figure 4.11: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of wet grassland in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.11 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.10 and 4.11:

This indicator includes individual measures for 8 species for birds of wet grassland.
Figure 4.10 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 4.11 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 4.11 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
In Figure 4.10 the lower confidence intervals for 1994 and 1995 were un-estimable, this is due to the high uncertainty around the population trend for Snipe which is a scarce species. As a result the lower confidence intervals on the graph abridges the two data points for 1993 and 1996.

Question 6

5.  Breeding seabird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Chapter 5 has not been updated due to the collection of the 2020 data for seabirds being affected COVID-19 restrictions. Also, the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) has recently transferred from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). BTO are planning to publish trends from the SMP later this year. These trends precede the onset of avian flu in Britain’s seabirds and the devastating effects this has had on many species.

Trend description

In the 2020 publication the breeding seabird index was updated with data up to and including 2019. In addition to the annual monitoring scheme SMP, JNCC is working, in association with other partners, on the completion of the next breeding seabird census, Seabirds Count (2017 to 2021) across Britain and Ireland. Regular counts at a sample of colonies provide robust trends, but entire population censuses are also required to add context and help to identify why changes might be happening, as well as to enable the calculation of between-census trends for those seabird species not monitored by the annual sample surveying. Additionally, conducting periodic censuses allows the accuracy of SMP annual monitoring trends to be tested and the opportunity to understand how breeding seabird populations might be changing spatially. This is especially important when considering inland and urban breeding species, which are rarely monitored annually. The seabird figures are presented with unsmoothed confidence intervals. Smoothed trends and assessments of change based on smoothed trends will be calculated subsequently.

The UK coast is over 30,000km long, and consists of a wide variety of habitats such as sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges, machair and intertidal areas. Additionally, the area of sea around the UK amounts to three and a half times the land area of the UK (not including overseas territories).

In 2019, the breeding seabird index in the UK was 24% lower than in 1986, slightly above the lowest level ever recorded (of 31% lower than 1986, recorded in 2013). Despite fluctuations, the indicator was largely flat from 1986 until the early-2000s when seabird numbers started to decline, and the long-term trend (to 2018) shows a significant 28% decrease. However, more recently the breeding seabird index has increased, non-significantly, by 3% between 2013 and 2018.

Since 1986, 8% of 13 seabird species showed a weak increase, 38% showed little change and 54% showed either a weak or a strong decline.

Over the short-term period between 2013 and 2018, 46% of the 13 species increased, 23% showed little change and 31% declined.

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds in the UK, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 5.1 in ods format

Figure 5.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for seabirds in the UK to, 1986 to 2018

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 5.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 5.1 & 5.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 13 species of seabird.
Figure 5.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart. No smoothed trend is available for seabirds, but this will be in future publications.
Figure 5.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 5.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting seabird populations

This measure is focused on the marine environment. Accordingly, for a number of species (for example, herring gull, great cormorant), the indicator uses data for coastal populations (colonies within 5km of the coastline) only, rather than data from all breeding areas of these species. This focusses the indicator on changes at the coast and in marine waters but means changes in inland populations are not taken into account. Work is currently underway to improve survey coverage of inland colonies so that a trend based on all breeding areas can be included in the ‘all-species indicator’.

One of the 13 seabird species has increased since the beginning of the index in 1986; razorbill numbers have more than doubled. Two species have declined strongly since 1986 - Arctic skua by 80% and black-legged kittiwake by 64%. The decline of black-legged kittiwakes has been linked to climate change impacts on marine food webs, and fishery pressures. However, there has been some improvement in the short term, during which black-legged kittiwakes have shown a strong increase, of 20% between 2013 and 2018. Some seabirds have been impacted through predation by invasive non-native mammals such as rats and mink, though successful eradication programmes have been implemented in a number of areas and populations of some species have undergone local recoveries as a result.

In addition to black-legged kittiwakes another 2 of the 13 seabird species have increased strongly between 2013 and 2018: razorbill and sandwich tern by 35% and 26% respectively. Numbers of great black-backed gull are decreasing strongly by 32% in the short term, although the long-term trend is a weak decline.

The seabird index in the UK in 2019 continues to exhibit a different pattern to the England index. One reason for this difference is species composition. Some species breed only in Scotland whereas others are more widespread but have the bulk of their populations in northern parts of the British Isles, and there may be insufficient data to generate an England-only trend. In addition, trends for some species may differ between the 2 countries.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds.

Question 7

6.  Wintering waterbird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

Trend description

The term waterbird is used to describe all birds that inhabit or depend on water; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter in the UK, some of which also breed here. Not all of the wintering waterbirds in this chapter are included in the all breeding birds index, only those which also breed in the UK and for which breeding trends are available. Wintering populations typically originate largely from breeding populations outside the UK and hence they represent completely different populations. In the relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group, those species that overlap are included under both, using the breeding population trend for the all-species indicator and the wintering population trend for the Wintering Waterbird Indicator.

In the winter of 2021/2022, the wintering waterbird index was 88% higher than in the winter of 1975/1976. The index peaked in 1996, and has largely declined since, falling by 9% between 2016/2017 and 2021/2022.

Since 1975/1976, 46% of the 46 species in the indicator increased, 43% showed little change and 11% declined.

Over the short-term, 22% of species increased, 28% showed little change, and 50% declined.

Figure 6.1: Wintering waterbirds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2021/2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 6.1 in ods format

Figure 6.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wintering waterbirds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2020/2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 6.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 6.1 and 6.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 46 species of wintering waterbird of which 27 are wildfowl species and 15 are wader species.
Figure 6.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line). Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal sites of markedly varying size. This means that bootstrapping methods cannot be applied reliably and hence trends for these groups are currently presented without confidence intervals.
The number of species in each sub indicator do not sum to the number in the all-species indicator because 4 species are included in all wintering waterbirds but are neither wildfowl nor wader. These are 2 grebes (little and great-crested), one rail species (coot) and cormorant. These are in 3 different taxonomic groups, none large enough to warrant a separate indicator.
Figure 6.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 6.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting wintering wetland bird populations

Populations of wintering wetland birds are affected by a range of factors including conditions in the high latitude countries where they breed, with breeding productivity increasing for species including black-tailed godwit but decreasing for others such as Greenland white-fronted geese. There is good evidence of a strong climate change impact on the indicator in recent years, with milder winters leading to the wintering ranges of many species, including mallard, pintail, goldeneye, pochard, bewick’s swan, ringed plover, curlew and bar-tailed godwit, increasingly shifting away from the UK. In addition, local changes, such as wetland creation and changes in agricultural management, have had an impact on waterbird populations within the UK.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.07 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds.

Species breakdown

There are 46 species, races and populations of bird included in the wintering waterbird indicator. These can be split into subcategories of wildfowl (ducks, geese and swans) and waders (sandpipers, plovers and their close relatives) which display slightly different trends. Overall, the wildfowl index has nearly doubled (97% increase) and the wader index has increased by 66% since 1975/1976. However, both peaked in the late 1990s and have declined subsequently; between 2016/2017 and 2021/2022, the index for wildfowl declined by 11% and the index for waders declined by 5%.

Wildfowl

Since the winter of 1975/1976, 52% of the wildfowl species increased, 33% showed little change and 15% declined, with most of these species declining weakly. Long-term decreases were observed for the Bewick’s swan, European white-fronted goose, scaup, and pochard which declined by 87%, 70%, 68% and 60% respectively. Four of the 13 wildfowl species showing the strongest increases are: the British/Irish greylag goose, gadwall, whooper swan and Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose. The British/Irish greylag goose and gadwall are estimated to be increasing in wintering numbers by 37-fold and 14-fold respectively. Wintering numbers of whooper swan and Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose are also estimated to have increased by more than 10-fold.

In the short term, 22% of the wildfowl species increased, 22% showed little change and 56% declined. Notable decreases were observed for the Bewick’s swan, scaup and dark-bellied Brent goose which showed declines of 78%, 42%, and 19% respectively. In addition, five duck species (teal, eider, wigeon, pochard and mallard) showed declines of approximately 15%. Three of the 9 wildfowl species showing the strongest increases are: the Nearctic light-bellied Brent goose, Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose, and whooper swan, increasing by 35%, 30% and 28% respectively.

Waders

Since the winter of 1975/1976, 33% of the wader species increased, 60% showed little change and 7% declined. The indices for avocet and black-tailed godwit showed the strongest increases, wintering numbers now more than 12 and 9 times what they used to be (and avocet is only included in the indicator since 1989/1990). Dunlin have shown the steepest decline, declining by 49% since the winter of 1975/1976, and wintering numbers of ringed plover are now 39% lower.

In the short-term, 20% of the wader species increased, 40% showed little change and 40% declined. The indices for both bar-tailed godwit, lapwing and golden plover declined strongly by 23%, 18% and 15% respectively in the short term. The only 3 wader species to increase in recent years are: avocet by 15%, knot by 10% and black-tailed godwit by 7%.

Of four species not included in the wildfowl or wader sub-indicators, wintering numbers of little grebe and cormorant have both increased more than two-fold since the mid 1980s when monitoring of these species began. In the short term, coot has declined by 16% and great crested grebe by 13% whereas cormorant numbers have increased by 9%.

Question 8

7.  Upland bird populations in the UK

Accepted Answer

The upland bird statistics are now being published as official statistics rather than experimental statistics because the methodology used to produce them is now fully developed according to current understanding and science but may incorporate future developments. The data used within the methodology is subject to ongoing review and refinement from time to time.

Trend description

The upland areas in the UK are wild and isolated providing the ideal open habitat for waders to breed or forage.

Due to its heavy reliance on the Breeding Bird Survey introduced in 1994, as well as relevant national single species surveys, this indicator covers the period 1994 to 2022.

In 2022, the UK upland bird index was 13% lower than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022, the upland bird index declined by 5%.

Since 1994, 12% of the 32 upland species increased, 50% showed little change and 38% declined.

In the short term, 19% of the 26 upland species increased, 31% showed little change and 50% of the upland species decreased. Short-term trends are not available for 6 of the specialist upland species.

Figure 7.1: Upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.1 in ods format

Figure 7.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 7.1 and 7.2:

This indicator includes individual measures for 32 species of upland birds.
Figure 7.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 7.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 7.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting upland birds

Upland birds are vulnerable to a number of pressures contributing to the pattern of overall decline, particularly among the upland specialists. UK uplands have a long history of intensive sheep grazing, game management and commercial afforestation. Reviews of causes of change have identified changes in grazing pressure, forest expansion, especially by non-native conifers, site-based predator control and climate change effects such as droughts, as some of the major pressures for open-nesting moorland species whereas upland passerines are affected by reductions in vegetation structure and composition. Raptors have benefited from reduced persecution although this still remains a threat. The overall stability in generalist species may reflect a balance between long term negative impacts of land use changes and benefits of climate change as more adaptable species are able to colonise new areas and increase in abundance.

Species breakdown

The 32 species of bird included in the ‘all upland bird index’ can be split into 3 categories: upland specialist, upland riparian and upland generalist. The indicator for upland specialist birds is comprised of the population trends for 15 species characteristic of and found solely in upland, typically open moorland habitats. The indicator for upland riparian species is comprised of the population trends for 4 species strongly associated with upland rivers and streams. The indicator for upland generalist birds is comprised of the population trends for 13 species (for example, Wren, Skylark, Carrion Crow) which are widespread and often common in uplands but also found in other habitats such as lowland farms or woodland. For these species, the population trends used are derived solely from surveys in upland habitat.

Between 1994 and 2022, the upland specialists index declined by 20%, the upland generalists index declined by 4% and the upland riparian index declined by 12% (see Figure 7.3).

Figure 7.3: Sub-indicators for upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.3:

This indicator includes individual measures for 32 species of upland bird of which 15 species are upland specialist birds, 13 species are upland generalist birds and 4 species are upland riparian birds.
Figure 7.3 shows the unsmoothed (dashed lines) and smoothed (solid lines) indecies for all upland birds, upland riparian birds, upland specialist birds and upland generalist birds.

Upland specialist birds

In 2022, the upland specialist index was 20% lower than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index declined by 7%.

Since 1994, 60% of the 15 upland specialist species showed little change and 40% declined. Numbers of whinchat and dotterel have declined strongly by 53% and 50% respectively. Four other species (curlew, ring ouzel, twite and black grouse) exhibited moderate declines of between 20% and 35%.

In the short term, 44% of the 9 upland specialist species showed little change and 56% declined. Ring ouzel, whinchat, meadow pipit and golden plover showed weak declines but red grouse declined strongly, by 25%. Short-term trends are not available for 6 of the specialist upland species, monitored through periodic surveys.

Figure 7.4: Upland specialist birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.4 in ods format

Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland specialist birds in the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.4 and 7.5:

This indicator includes individual measures for 15 species of upland specialist birds.
Figure 7.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 7.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 7.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Upland generalist birds

In 2022, the upland generalist index was 4% lower than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index decreased by 1%.

Since 1994, 31% of the 13 upland generalist species increased, 31% showed little change and 38% declined. Numbers of red kite and stonechat increased by nearly 5-fold and 3-fold respectively. In contrast, numbers of both peregrine and redshank declined strongly by 84% and 57% respectively since 1994.

In the short term, 38% of the 13 upland generalist species increased, 15% showed little change and 46% declined. Numbers of red kite, stonechat, cuckoo and oystercatcher increased strongly in the short-term, by 72%, 25%, 18%, and 17% respectively. Numbers of peregrine and pied wagtail have all declined strongly in the short term, by 61% and 22% respectively.

Figure 7.6: Upland generalist birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.6 in ods format

Figure 7.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland generalist birds in the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.7:

This indicator includes individual measures for 13 species of upland generalist birds.
Figure 7.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 7.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 7.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Upland riparian birds

In 2022, the upland riparian birds index was 12% lower than in 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index declined by 7%.

Since 1994, 3 of the 4 upland riparian species showed little overall change but common sandpiper showed a weak decline of 43%.

In the short term, both the dipper and common sandpiper declined strongly by 16% and 14% respectively.

Figure 7.8: Upland riparian birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.8 in ods format

Figure 7.9: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland riparian birds in the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.9 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.8 and 7.9:

This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species of upland riparian birds.
Figure 7.8 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
Figure 7.9 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
Figure 7.9 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Question 9

Main notes: methodological detail, limitations of the indicators and further information

Accepted Answer

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) from a wide range of sources, principally:

the Common Birds Census (from 1966 to 2000)
the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (from 1994 to 2021)
the BTO/ Waterways Bird Survey(from 1974 to 2007)
the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Waterways Breeding Bird Survey with support from the Environment Agency (from 1998 to 2021)
the BTO/RSPB/JNCC Wetland Bird Survey counts (from 1975/1976 to 2019/2020)
the WWT Goose & Swan Monitoring Programme in partnership with the JNCC and Scottish Natural Heritage
the Seabird Monitoring Programme (from 1986)
the Periodic Seabird censuses supplied by JNCC, RSPB, the Seabird Group, SOTEAG (Shetland Oil Terminal Environmental Advisory Group) and other partners
Monitoring of scarce and rare breeding birds by the Statutory Conservation Agency and RSPB Annual Breeding Bird Scheme (SCARABBS) and the Rare Breeding Birds Panel (from 1970 to 2018)

Index	Index started	Trend year end	Long-term trend	Short-term trend
All bird species	1970	2022	-15%	-6%
Farmland	1970	2022	-60%	-8%
Wetland	1975	2022	-13%	-3%
Woodland	1970	2022	-37%	-15%
Wintering waterbirds	1975/1976	2021/2022	88%	-9%
Upland	1994	2022	-13%	-5%
Seabirds	1986	2018	-28%	3%

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Use of the data

Accredited Official Statistics

Key changes to the UK wild bird publication

Executive summary

Figure 1: Populations of wild birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Table 1: Long and short-term trends at a glance for the UK

Introduction

Why monitor bird populations

Understanding the bird population indices

Assessing trends

1. Native breeding wild bird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 1.1: Populations of wild birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 1.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wild birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Species breakdown

Figure 1.3: Populations of wild birds in the UK by habitat, 1970 to 2022

2. Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 2.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

Species breakdown

Figure 2.3: Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Farmland specialists

Figure 2.4: Breeding farmland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 2.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Farmland generalists

Figure 2.6: Breeding farmland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 2.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 3.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Factors affecting woodland birds

Species breakdown

Figure 3.3: Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Woodland specialists

Figure 3.4: Breeding specialist woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland specialist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

Woodland generalists

Figure 3.6: Breeding generalist woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2022

Figure 3.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland generalist birds in the UK, 1970 to 2021

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Figure 4.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Factors affecting water and wetland bird populations

Species breakdown

Figure 4.3 : Breeding water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Birds of slow flowing and standing water

Figure 4.4: Breeding birds of slow flowing and standing water in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Figure 4.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of slow flowing and standing water in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Birds of fast flowing water

Figure 4.6: Breeding birds of fast flowing water in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Figure 4.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of fast flowing water in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Birds of reedbeds

Figure 4.8: Breeding birds of reedbeds in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Figure 4.9: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of reedbeds in the UK, 1975 to 2021

Birds of wet grassland

Figure 4.10: Breeding birds of wet grassland in the UK, 1975 to 2022

Figure 4.11: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of wet grassland in the UK, 1975 to 2021

5. Breeding seabird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds in the UK, 1986 to 2019

Figure 5.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for seabirds in the UK to, 1986 to 2018

Factors affecting seabird populations

6. Wintering waterbird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 6.1: Wintering waterbirds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2021/2022

Figure 6.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wintering waterbirds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2020/2021

Factors affecting wintering wetland bird populations

Species breakdown

Wildfowl

Waders

7. Upland bird populations in the UK

Trend description

Figure 7.1: Upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2022

Figure 7.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2021

Factors affecting upland birds