Guidance

Scenarios: facilitation worksheet

Published 29 August 2024

This worksheet is for the user to adapt and fill in as needed – timings and wording are suggestions only and will need to be tailored to the user’s context.  This is for a simple 2x2 scenarios matrix method, as outlined in the Futures Toolkit; there are various other ways of making scenarios. Read other Futures Toolkit resources.

Scoping question:   

Participants:

Time	Activity	Content	Notes
-	-	-	-
-00:30	Set up	If face-to-face, you will need notepads, pens, screen. Make sure that you are able to pin flip charts up on a wall. Provide space for each group to work. If virtual, make sure that you have prepared your online whiteboard with the scenarios to be explored. You will need to be able to use breakout rooms in the video meeting package. Display the Scoping Question prominently and prepare slides if using (recommended).	If you are working virtually, you may need an introduction to the online whiteboard before you start or send a short “how-to guide”.
00:00 (5 mins)	Introduction and agenda	Introduce the aims of the project/recap as required – this will follow an earlier Driver Mapping workshop. Explain how this workshop fits in with any wider futures process. Then, introduce the workshop, what people will do and what the outcomes will be. Share the agenda	Slide 1: Agenda: 1. Introduction. 2. Describing the world of each future. 3. Naming the futures. 4. What does this mean for you and your stakeholders. 5. Identify main recommendations. 6. Plenary discussion. Next steps – writing up the scenarios and beyond
	Develop the scenarios matrix
00:05 (45–60 mins)	Develop the axes of uncertainty	The groups will work with the ‘critical uncertainties’ from the top right-hand quadrant of the Driver Mapping workshop (uncertain/important). Aim for a minimum of 10 uncertainties. More may be added. Divide the uncertainties up between the groups. Ask people to describe alternative ways that a critical uncertainty might play out – a continuum between two opposite and uncertain outcomes. Divide the uncertainties (now stated as axes) into two categories, e.g. technological and social. Ask the groups to discuss which they think are the most important for each category. Each person then votes for which axis they think is most significant in each category. Ask them to pick the most important and uncertain axis. Using the two axes people have chosen, draw the scenarios matrix and number them 1–4.	Divide participants into groups of 4–8, but if you are the only facilitator for a virtual event, limit yourself to two groups. This tool depends on the list of critical uncertainties from the Driver Mapping Tool workshop, so provide participants with a slide or a printout of its final matrix containing the critical uncertainties. Slide 2: Show an example of an axis for a critical uncertainty on a slide or on a sticky. Put up a flip chart (or box on the online whiteboard) for each category. Provide each group with two dots and allow them to vote. On a virtual whiteboard set up the voting. Slide 3: See the image at the bottom of this page.
00:50 (10 mins)	Break
	Describe the four Futures
01:00 (60 mins)	Describing the four futures	For each quadrant, ask people to consider: what are some of the key characteristics of each future? How would life be different from today? Working? Commuting? Education? Leisure? Shopping? The economy? Politics? The environment/climate? International relationships? What else? Put each idea in the quadrant you are working on. Participants can rotate around the scenarios and build on what other groups have written. Groups will have 15 minutes per future.	Slide 4. Put a flip chart up (or use the template online) for each quadrant/future. Each group starts at a different future, all do all four futures. Provide one sample idea per quadrant. Give participants 15 minutes per future. If you are working virtually, you will need to give people 20 minutes for each quadrant and you will need to remind them when to move.
02:00 (20-30 mins)	Debrief	Bring people back into plenary and debrief. What surprised you? Which quadrant feels the most comfortable? Which is the most challenging?	Next, we will name the futures – first, we will have a break and then you can start to think about names.
02:20 (10 mins)	Break
	Name the future scenarios
02:30 (30 mins)	Naming the scenarios	Ask participants to think about a name for each scenario. There should be a theme to them – for instance, book titles, movies, animals, flowers, trees… Give an example. Take care not to bias the names (that is, do not give a positive name to the scenario you prefer, and a negative name to the one you do not). Put each suggestion on one sticky note and place in the correct future’s space. Allow 15 minutes to come up with names. 5 minutes to debrief and share. 5 minutes to vote. 5 minutes for final choice of name.	Slide 5 showing an example matrix. For a group of up to 20 (or 15 virtually), you may do this in plenary; you can also do it in breakout groups if the group is large. Use a pre-prepared flip chart sheet or virtual whiteboard template. Provide a place for suggested names for each future.
03:00 (20 mins)	Plenary discussion	What surprised you?  Which quadrant feels the most comfortable? The most challenging? What were the similarities and differences between scenarios? What were your key learning points from the overall exercise?
03:20	Close	Ask if there are any questions. Thank participants

After the workshop, write up the scenarios as narratives. You could use some of the Experiential Futures methods, such as storytelling, media headlines, or “A Day in the Life”. 

Time	Activity	Content	Notes
-	-	-	-
	Optional next steps
	Stakeholder impacts	Identify stakeholders, ranging from internal decision-makers to the general public. Identify the “primary stakeholders” and their goal, issues etc. Think about each scenario and what it means for your stakeholders. Use a SWOT approach to examine your policy or strategy in each scenario. What are our strengths in policy or strategy for this future? What are our weaknesses in policy or strategy for this future? What are the opportunities that the policy or strategy needs to facilitate? What are the threats that the policy or strategy needs to mitigate?	Ask people to write one idea per sticky.
	Main recommendations and issues	This step creates the bridge between the future described in each scenario and the present policy/strategy challenges you are facing today. Imagine that you are currently living in this future. What 3 recommendations would you make to ensure that the policy/strategy is effective in each scenario? You will have 10 minutes for each scenario. In plenary, each group may present their recommendations, adding to those already there. The final 10 minutes ask: what surprised you? What were the similarities and differences between the scenarios? What were your key learning points from the overall exercise?	This may be useful for the Roadmapping tool. If you divided people into groups, then each can present their recommendations. If done in plenary, have a presentation/discussion for each future. Either way, it is 5 minutes each. Capture learning on a clean flip chart page or in online whiteboard template.

Slide 3: Four numbered squares forming one larger one, with central vertical axis labelled ‘We’re all in this together; cross-border collaboration’ down to ‘Safety in isolation; increased insularity and nationalism’. The horizontal axis runs from ‘Short pandemic; decisive responses, fast vaccine development, no recurrence’ to ‘Long pandemic; dizorganised responses, slow vaccine development, recurrence’.