Independent report

Liverpool Strategic Futures Advisory Panel: Final report

Published 21 March 2024

Applies to England

Foreword

I am delighted to present this final report of the Liverpool Strategic Futures Advisory Panel to the Secretary of State for Levelling up, Housing and Communities following our submission of the interim report published in November 2023.

The report of the Panel was well received and set out strategic priorities to build on the excellent progress already underway in Liverpool with the new political and executive leadership teams now in place.

Few places have left as indelible a mark on the planet and its people as the wonderful city of Liverpool. So profound has its impact been that the Austrian painter Felicien de Myrbach remarked, “if Liverpool did not exist, it would have to be invented.”  Carl Jung described it as “the Pool of Life” and Lord Michael Heseltine said of its recent regeneration that “Liverpool’s transformation brings tears to my eyes”.

But the indomitable spirit, boundless creativity and immutable energy of its people could not possibly be grown in a lab or built by machines. Scousers are a natural, renewable resource formed by hundreds of years of history and dichotomous economic fortunes.

Once described as the second city of the British Empire, it rose to global economic importance at the forefront of the first Industrial Revolution, and built the first intercity railway, the first commercial wet dock, the first non-combustible warehouse system, and a pioneering elevated electric rail network.

Whilst it is proud of many historical firsts, it has now set a course for a bright future, maximising its world-leading strengths. If the past few years have been a challenging and difficulty spell, then the past 12 months have shown the city at its best.

Strong, progressive leadership and a collective vision built on statistical evidence and data. And who could forget Eurovision that Liverpool held on behalf of the people of Ukraine? A riot of colour, culture and creativity that not only embodied our sense of solidarity but helped to relaunch the city on the global stage - not that it needed much of a re-introduction.

When it comes to name recognition among non-capital cities, Liverpool ranks in the top 10 globally, despite not ranking in the top 100 by population size. Time Out recently ranked Liverpool as the 7th best city to visit in the world. It is no surprise, therefore, that the region’s visitor economy is worth an enormous £5.2 billion every year.

This is just one example of the many opportunities that Liverpool provides, but the key to the Panel’s work was to ensure that Liverpool has the right strategic vision to evolve and grow.

It must diversify its economy to take advantage of its pre-eminent position as the UK’s Renewable Energy Coast and capitalise on its strengths in life sciences, materials innovation, advanced computing, and infectious disease control. By restoring confidence in the city as a place to invest and do business; attracting more well-paid, productive jobs and ensuring that the city carves out its own niche in a crowded global marketplace.

This report is not a silver bullet, but it does give the city and the region targets to aim for. The whole Liverpool City Region needs Liverpool to succeed in order to fulfil its own potential. We are already beginning to see the Panel’s work bear fruit, with £31 million secured to kickstart regeneration, and a major investment in our life science economy recently announced by AstraZeneca.

It has, I believe, also marked an important reset in the way that public bodies in the region work with each other. For the first time there is the sense that we are all one team working together in pursuit of the same clear goals. It is my hope that the spirit of self-reflection and collaboration that the Panel’s work has fostered will become the new normal.

None of this would have been possible without my co-panellists, two titans of local government who brought with them decades of insight and experience. Baroness Judith Blake and Sir Howard Bernstein may have come from rival cities, but they leave a significant legacy here and will always be welcomed back with open arms.

I would also like to thank everyone at the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, Liverpool City Council, Homes England and the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities for their tireless efforts and cooperation.

A special mention goes to the Leader of Liverpool City Council, Cllr Liam Robinson, and his Chief Executive Andrew Lewis for providing strong leadership that helped to steady the ship.

I would personally like to thank the Rt. Hon Greg Clark MP for his foresight in establishing the Panel and the Rt. Hon Michael Gove MP for providing renewed impetus when it might have been easier to turn away from the city.

This is just the latest step in an ongoing journey, but we believe that the course we have set will lead the city to a brighter future.

Steve Rotheram
Mayor of the Liverpool City Region
Chair of the Liverpool Strategic Futures Advisory Panel

Introduction

This is the final report of the Liverpool Strategic Futures Advisory Panel.

The Panel was established in 2022 by the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and comprises Mayor Steve Rotheram (Mayor of the Liverpool City Region and Chair of the Panel) Baroness Judith Blake (Leader of Leeds City Council, 2015-2021), and Sir Howard Bernstein (Chief Executive of Manchester City Council, 1998-2017).

The Panel’s remit has been to support the development of a long-term economic strategy to shape Liverpool’s future and support the city on its improvement journey. In the past, Liverpool has often been associated with untapped potential, and challenges which have prevented the city from making its full contribution to national growth. In the recent period these challenges have manifested in a shortage of arrangements for appropriate partnership working, uncertain market confidence linked to the legacy of stalled and haphazard regeneration, and a need to accelerate the shift into higher value, tradable sectors of the economy.

These were some of the challenges presented when the Panel began its work in 2022. In response, the Panel’s interim report (published in November 2023) identified three core priorities for the city moving forwards: rebooting regeneration to transform the places in which people live and work, restore market confidence and to create an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth; innovation to bring the delivery of public services closer to communities, more effectively aligned with people’s needs and aspirations; and turbocharging the knowledge economy to support better skills, jobs and wages.

Above all, the Panel’s interim assessment identified a need to reverse a legacy of underdeveloped place leadership in Liverpool – the capability of democratically elected leaders to utilise their convening powers to establish an agreed vision for change in the city and secure wider institutional and stakeholder support in delivering it.

This report details the steps taken by local partners towards operationalising these proposals and sets out the further recommendations that we as a Panel consider necessary to secure recent improvements over the long term. We are very encouraged by the spirit of collaboration in which partners across the city, city region, and central government have worked towards this ambition and hope to see these partnership working arrangements consolidated to sustain progress over the long term.

In his speech at the Convention of the North 2024, the Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities emphasised that levelling up depends on unlocking the economic potential of cities like Liverpool. This is a long-term reform programme that will be delivered over decades rather than the 12 months of the Panel’s work. Reflecting on the position of the city today, we are confident that the leadership, institutions, and overarching priorities are coming into place to seize the opportunity in Liverpool and that this will be accelerated through strong place leadership and dedicated local resource, now and in the future.

Priority 1: Rebooting Liverpool’s regeneration

The Panel’s interim report set out the challenges of regeneration in Liverpool, as well as the opportunity of national and international significance that this represents.

In the months since the Panel’s report was published, we have seen further tangible progress towards realising this opportunity. Strong political leadership is taking the development of the city forward with integrity and commitment. Relations between Liverpool City Council (LCC) and the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority (LCRCA) are transformed, and partners are working together more closely with a common commitment and shared endeavor. Private sector investors and developers are beginning to look at the city in a new light and specific sites that have stood vacant and subject to protracted financial and legal issues are now coming forward for development.

There is now a consensus that sustained regeneration around Liverpool’s economic hubs is needed to raise productivity. At the same time, there are areas of the city where original uses have ended and which, without intervention, will remain left behind or develop in a way that is not conducive to sustainable growth. There is also a need to develop new housing markets which can service Liverpool’s emerging high productivity industries and meet the aspirations of communities outside of the city centre. 

The real test of course is delivery. While we are reassured that the picture on regeneration is much improved, experience shows new approaches and models of leadership can help drive sustainable and inclusive development, ensuring that neighborhoods benefit from new growth opportunities and improved connectivity.

The Panel’s interim report recommended the establishment of a new Regeneration Partnership to oversee holistic and integrated regeneration opportunities in Liverpool, working in collaboration with the private and public sector, local and central government. LCC has embraced this challenge, bringing forward a new regeneration and investment strategy, and the Panel is encouraged by the active steps being taken to operationalise this.

The Regeneration Partnership will be chaired by an experienced private sector figure with demonstrable experience of holistic regeneration, in close collaboration with the leadership of the city council. The Mayor and LCRCA have a central role to play in these arrangements, working hand in hand with LCC and the Regeneration Partnership to ensure a coordinated strategy across the city region which aligns fully with regional and national programmes.

Working with investors, landowners, developers and occupiers, the Liverpool Regeneration Partnership will:

• accelerate development within the city
• create a strategic overview and comprehensive work plan for regeneration of the city centre
• develop and market a pipeline of prioritised development proposals
• build a strong investable proposition for future allocations of government investment
• align with, but not lead on, improvements in wider service delivery to ensure a focus on improving Liverpool as a place, especially in areas of longstanding deprivation such as North Liverpool

The Partnership will have a specific focus on the arc linking Bramley Moore on the waterfront to the Knowledge Quarter in the city centre (see Figure 1 below). The proposed footprint of this accelerated development zone encompasses the high impact residential and commercial development sites identified in the Panel’s interim report, and links these with existing higher education and innovation sites, including those being brought forward by Liverpool City Region’s new Investment Zone, known locally as an Innovation Zone in recognition of the region’s focused pursuit of innovation-led growth. Further detail on the expected sites in this zone is set out in Annex A.

Figure 1: map of proposed accelerated development zone

We strongly welcome the decision by the Secretary of State to support these ambitions with £31 million funding as an immediate boost to the city’s development, as a direct result of collaborative working brought about through the Panel. The greatest opportunity however lies in securing more substantial private investment, and we would encourage local stakeholders to work towards this priority over the coming months. We are confident that, guided by the right institutions, the different elements of this opportunity are coming into place.

Our interim report also described how past successes in Liverpool have been supported by development corporations, innovative partnerships and other vehicles, which have provided joint leadership with the focus, additional powers and resources needed to succeed. We therefore recommended that the city consider models that would accelerate its economic renaissance, with a legal basis necessary to assure delivery.

Following positive engagement between LCC, LCRCA, Homes England, and central government, Liverpool will establish a new development vehicle to provide additional capacity, expertise and support across the zone detailed in Annex A. The preferred model is the new Locally Led Urban Development Corporation (LLUDC) established by the Levelling Up and Regeneration Act 2023.

Liverpool has the potential to be the first area to use this model, shaping national policy as the supporting regulations are developed and acting as a pathfinder for reform. The LLUDC model enables Liverpool to be at the forefront of delivery with new legal powers (including dedicated planning powers as and where appropriate and speedier routes to compulsory purchase of land), with LCC as the oversight authority and accountable body. The new body would be supported by a significantly expanded city development team within the City Council, supplemented by expertise from Homes England in the form of a multi-functional/multidisciplinary team, and technical support procured as required.

The LLUDC will be nested within the Liverpool Regeneration Partnership to ensure alignment between the powers offered by a new vehicle and the council’s wider programme of work across the city. The Partnership will bring forward proposals for a final red line boundary and appropriate governance arrangements for the LLUDC, to be considered by the Secretary of State. The Act also sets out the arrangements for public consultation on the area of focus, powers, and responsibilities, which will need to be followed, and the Panel would strongly encourage LCC to prepare their investment case for discussion with government at the next Spending Review.

To maximize the city’s economic opportunity, the final footprint of the new vehicle should represent a coherent, integrated growth corridor that can enhance densification around the hubs of the Knowledge Quarter and the waterfront and establish links between these areas and priority neighborhoods for regeneration beyond the city centre.

Experience suggests the most effective governance structure for a new vehicle of this kind will be tripartite; bringing together private sector leadership with proven experience of delivery and the vision to drive transformative growth, democratic leadership and local expertise from LCC and the LCRCA, and central government leadership and technical expertise from Homes England and DLUHC. We would expect the final governance of this vehicle to reflect the following principles:

• strong strategic leadership capacity and capability
• private sector experience
• demonstrable experience of transformative regeneration / place-making and experience of sectors relevant to Liverpool and the wider region
• local knowledge and expertise
• integrity, transparency, and accountability in the use of public resources, adhering to the Nolan Principles.

In the set-up phase during which the vehicle is established, the Panel would strongly encourage the steering group to prioritise the appointment of a shadow Chief Executive and Board, to accelerate progress on investment planning and prioritisation.

To support delivery the Panel would like to see LCC and the LCRCA agree clear outcomes and performance indicators against which future progress can be assessed. LCC should prioritise the establishment of the Regeneration Partnership and LLUDC steering and technical groups in the first quarter of 2024/25, to maintain momentum and drive forward the establishment of an LLUDC, including commencing the necessary statutory and consultation processes.  

Priority 2: 21st century public service reform 

One of Liverpool’s strengths is the commitment of local partners to inclusive economic development and ensuring that residents can benefit from new growth opportunities in terms of employment, earnings, and skills. This should remain a guide for the city’s future development, ensuring that no community is left behind and that investments promote the life chances of all residents.

Public service reform is an important dimension of this mission, and critical to ensuring that as many residents as possible benefit from the opportunities of future economic growth in Liverpool and the city region. Reconfiguring services so that they join up around citizens, build community resilience, and reduce reliance on the costliest forms of intervention is a complex challenge, but one that is key to meeting public expectations and improving outcomes at a time of rising demand.

The Panel’s interim report set out the principles that we think should inform this reform agenda over the coming years. Public bodies need to prioritise systems that incentivise collaboration between agencies, embed a whole place perspective, and prioritise early intervention where possible. This agenda should be underpinned by high quality evidence on the determinants of socio-economic outcomes, utilising recent advances in analytical capability to target priority cohorts and make best use of public money.

Building on the energy within local agencies to drive this agenda, our interim report identified an opportunity for Liverpool to become a public service innovation pathfinder through the development of an LCRCA-led Office for Public Service Innovation (OPSI), alongside a prototype project to understand the opportunities, benefits, and obstacles to scaling up neighbourhood-focused service delivery models. In the Panel’s view this is mainstream for levelling up, ensuring that residents in harder to reach communities are well placed to access opportunities which arise from economic regeneration.  

There is a critical mass of activity already underway in Liverpool, which provides strong foundations and direction for this. The Panel recognises the LCRCA, its constituent councils and its partners’ commitment to work collaboratively – the development of the civic data cooperative led by the University of Liverpool, the Cheshire and Merseyside Public Health integrated data system (CIPHA), local partners’ work on violence reduction partnerships, and city region success stories such as the Cradle to Career initiative, are all examples of such innovation happening in the city region already. 

The task is now to scale up this activity into a mainstream and sustainable reform agenda, and we are encouraged that LCC, the LCRCA and other local partners have embraced the challenge. To drive further progress, the Liverpool Strategic Partnership (LSP), made up of the key public bodies from the city and convened by the city council, will oversee a 12-month prototype project, the purpose of which will be to:

• Improve access to data and intelligence for service delivery teams: identify, develop, and test the effectiveness of new tools and approaches to data sharing across services;
• Test how service delivery can respond to and be more effective as a result of greater access to data and intelligence: understand the tangible benefits of enhanced data and intelligence for service delivery and outcomes and explore the potential benefits of the use of AI in service delivery; and
• Evaluate the prototype to deliver learning and intelligence to support the development of OPSI: a central part of the evidence base to shape the establishment of OPSI.

The specific focus of this prototype project will be to investigate effective approaches to reduce persistent school absenteeism. This is a complex and multi-faceted challenge, which produces knock-on impacts for many services and agencies, as well as lifelong consequences for the young people affected.

This work will draw on data from a range of local agencies to identify the causal risk factors associated with persistent school absenteeism and the interventions that are effective in reducing it. It will work with a range of local agencies, including schools and the voluntary and community sector to do this. The intervention will take place in the North Docks and Stanley Park areas of North Liverpool and, subject to final approval by the LSP, is expected to formally launch in April 2024, reporting on outcomes and areas for potential future investment by early 2025.

The results will be used to inform the Panel’s longer-term recommendation on Liverpool’s public service reform – a best-in-class data and evidence platform to support local authority service improvement and decision making. 

The Office for Public Service Innovation will facilitate pathways for reform in neighbourhoods by enabling local leaders to build on existing high-quality data, intelligence, and evaluation on what works to improve socio-economic outcomes. This will be allied to the strong assets in place locally. It will make use of the Cheshire and Merseyside Integrated Care System’s existing population health management data platform (CIPHA) and effectively integrate this into workstreams managed by LCC and other agencies, thereby maximising its reach and impact. Data from CIPHA will be supplemented through data sharing agreements enabling the integration of intelligence from other agencies, with policing data, housing, Universal Credit, and some LCC data as early priorities.

The strategic case for OPSI will be provided to DLUHC in mid-2024; the full proposal for this body will be developed over the next 12 months, drawing on learning and insights from the prototype. In the Panel’s view, the ambition and potential of this proposal will be shaped by the level of resource available from central government and elsewhere. 

The Office will be multi-functional and multi-organisational – as a Panel we think it is important that the widest possible range of public sector partners are included within OPSI’s remit, including health, Police, Fire, housing, education, and jobcentres. The LCRCA’s proposal should demonstrate how OPSI brings these partners together and facilitates the alignment and coordination of its future interventions, building on learning from the prototype.

We would also like to see local partners and central government explore creative options to ensuring data can be shared effectively between organisations to improve service design. The LCRCA has recently concluded a Level 4 devolution agreement with government, meaning it can now work with the Department for Work and Pensions to develop a data sharing framework of this kind, and we could encourage partners to develop this in a way that will complement and accelerate the OPSI’s work.

Maintaining a clear link between the OPSI and the North Liverpool prototype will be important as both of these projects develop, to ensure strong multi-agency working is informed by insights from the city region’s data assets.

Priority 3: Turbocharging the innovation economy 

Liverpool’s path to increased productivity and development will run through the innovation economy, notably in its world-leading life sciences sector. Despite a strong foundation in these areas, challenges including viability gaps around key sites, a deficit in laboratory space, and attracting and retaining skilled workers require targeted interventions to support growth in this sector.

Since the publication of the interim report, the Panel is pleased to see that Liverpool City Region’s Investment Zone proposal has been successfully agreed, backed by £160 million in government funding over the next ten years. The programme seeks to bridge the gaps identified by the LCRCA and to position Liverpool as an international leader in innovation, creating 8000 jobs by investing in key sites across the city region. Estimates indicate the Investment Zone intervention could leverage private investment of up to £640 million across the wider region over the next decade. AstraZeneca is investing £450 million into the establishment of a new vaccine manufacturing plant in Liverpool, aligning with the life science priorities that the Investment Zone funding will support.

Investment Zones are a national programme but in Liverpool, the focus of the zone is driven by the city’s status as a globally significant location for health innovations and will be known locally as an Innovation Zone. This zone will focus on growing the life sciences cluster, particularly in driving breakthrough research and development in the identification and control of infectious diseases, which forms one of the region’s three world-leading capabilities alongside materials chemistry and AI solutions and emerging technologies.

Investment Zone funding will enable the development of much needed infrastructure and provide resources to support workers, businesses, and researchers as the region transitions towards a high wage, high skill, high productivity economy. Key to this will not only be attracting highly skilled workers from around the world but capitalising on the large and growing student population. Liverpool’s Knowledge Quarter forms one of the largest academic and clinical campuses in the UK, comprising research institutions, industry bodies, and three universities – University of Liverpool, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, and Liverpool John Moores University. The Investment Zone programme offers graduates of these universities the opportunity to work at the forefront of this innovation economy.

The sites selected as part of Liverpool City Region’s Investment Zone are key to building on the existing life science clusters in the region. For example, Maghull Health Park has plans to create a private sector backed innovation campus, with the Innovation Zone helping to attract new businesses to the site and increase employment in the growing mental health innovation sector. Speke Pharma is already a manufacturing site for pharmaceuticals, but with Investment Zone funding it could expand further and act as a magnet for new businesses to the area. Knowledge Quarter Liverpool and Sci-Tech Daresbury offer facilities aimed at addressing a lack of available laboratory space, providing young life science companies the opportunity to overcome some of the barriers early startups face to become successful established companies, all within a supported innovation eco-system at the heart of the city.

The University of Liverpool is a key partner in the Liverpool City Region’s Investment Zone programme and has committed £200 million over the next ten years to support the programme and its aligned projects. The Investment Zone’s tax incentives and government funding will be deployed across a range of areas to address local constraints including a lack of suitable infrastructure, skills gaps, and development support to SMEs and larger firms in the regions:

• Skills – £13 million to ensure future employees have the specialist skills necessary for the life science jobs of the future, upskilling around 300 learners each year.
• Local infrastructure – £27 million directed at the development of over 70,000 square meters of new infrastructure, including laboratory space, providing space for new research and development activity.
• Research and innovation – £21 million towards R&I interventions, including the purchase of capital equipment, funding PhDs, and supporting companies to bring their proposals to market.
• Business and stakeholder support – £11 million to help grow businesses through non-grant financial support and helping approximately 775 businesses to attend international business events.

A successfully implemented Investment Zone will give Liverpool the opportunity to turbocharge the economy across all sectors, providing the infrastructure and resources necessary to unlock access to high skilled workers and investment, build on the work of the regeneration partnership and public service reform initiatives set out above, and deliver on the aspirations of the city and its residents.  

Next steps

This report marks the conclusion of the Panel’s work. The recommendations are designed to support Liverpool’s democratically elected leaders to move forward into a new era of growth and prosperity, a journey that needs to be locally led. As we described in our interim report, the three priorities and their associated projects are only part of the overall picture of Liverpool’s future but will be fundamental in anchoring long term growth. 

We have been pleased to see the overwhelmingly positive response at local and national level to the recommendations set out in the interim report. There is clear evidence of collaboration between local partners and an enthusiasm to strengthen this moving forward. We are confident that this will ultimately benefit the citizens of Liverpool and the wider region.

The Panel would like to thank all those who have supported our work over the past 12 months. We would like to first recognise the involvement of former Secretary of State, the Rt Greg Clark MP, for his initial vision in setting up the Panel, and the current Secretary of State, the Rt Hon Michael Gove MP, for his personal backing and enthusiasm for this important piece of work, and the recent political leadership of Liverpool City Council for their continued support.

We would like to thank the 300 stakeholders who contributed during the diagnostic phase and the teams at Liverpool City Council, the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, Homes England, the Heseltine Institute, and the Best Value Commissioners for their individual contributions to this piece of work.

Annex A – proposed priority regeneration areas within accelerated development zone

At this stage it is anticipated that the priority areas of the accelerated development zone will include: 

• Central Docks (key phase of the overall Liverpool Waters regeneration programme) – planning consent received for 4.7 acre park and infrastructure to create development plots for up to 2,350 homes.
• Ten Streets – key area of the northern docks, adjacent to Liverpool Waters and the new Bramley Moore Stadium, and linking North Liverpool with the City Centre. 125 acres of former dockland to be transformed with up to 1 million sq ft of development.
• Pumpfields – long-term neglected and semi-derelict 75 acre zone on the northern edge of the City Centre, with a history of failed and stalled sites. Individual developments have recommenced, but the area lacks a comprehensive planning and delivery framework. Major opportunity to bring forward up to 10,000 homes, with improved infrastructure and community facilities.
• Greatie Market – wider area regeneration opportunity connected to the expansion of Greatie Market. Project scope includes market expansion, new housing, improved transport links, connectivity, and green space. Grant funding via Homes England is currently being considered.
• Pall Mall & Moorfields – key project to accelerate office development within the core central business district, aligned to a potentially improved transport hub at Moorfields Station. Existing private sector development partner, with planning consent to bring forward first phase of 120,000 sq ft Grade A offices, and further phases of 280,000 sq ft with scope for wider site assembly and development potential in the vicinity.
• St George’s Gateway – opportunity to redevelop 3.3 acres of land created by demolition of the Churchill Way flyovers. Mixed-use development proposal to include cultural/educational facilities and potential residential accommodation, reducing severance and improving the quality of public space.
• Fabric District – City Centre commercial district, adjacent to the Knowledge Quarter, with strong community-led vision for comprehensive mixed-use regeneration, supporting a balance of residential and commercial uses. Substantial scope for accelerating site assembly and development, transport and public realm improvements and “managed” economic diversification.
• Upper Central/Central Station – gateway to the City’s Knowledge Quarter which provides the key link between Liverpool’s universities and the main retail, cultural and Ropewalks areas. Good engagement already exists with the private sector on opportunity areas, as well as significant opportunity for the Central Station to be redeveloped and expanded.
• Paddington Village – central phase part developed, with further plot development to be supported by Combined Authority Investment Zone funding.  Grant funding via Homes England is currently being considered.