Research and analysis

Influenza vs COVID planning assumptions, 10 February 2020

Paper prepared for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

Documents

NSRA pandemic influenza planning assumptions compared with WN-CoV - 10 February 2020

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Details

Table comparing the reasonable worst case scenario in an influenza pandemic with the then-current estimate of the reasonable worst case scenario for the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK. Characteristics include:

  • case fatality ratio
  • doubling rate
  • duration of infectivity

The paper was discussed at SAGE meeting 6 on 11 February 2020.

This evidence was often complied very rapidly during a fast-moving response and should be viewed in this context. The paper presented here is the best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing, and the conclusions were formed on this basis. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded at a later date.

Updates to this page

Published 5 May 2020

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