Research and analysis

Future communications technologies

Published 27 August 2024

Rapid projects support government departments to understand the scientific evidence underpinning a policy issue or area by convening academic, industry and government experts at a single roundtable. These summary meeting notes seek to provide accessible science advice for policymakers. They represent the combined views of roundtable participants at the time of the discussion and are not statements of government policy.  

What are the key risks that could emerge from the development of future communications technologies up to 2035?

Meeting notes from roundtable chaired by Angela McLean, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, facilitated by the Government Office for Science.

4 June 2024, 1:00pm-2:30pm

Key points 

• Future communication networks are evolving towards being more open, adaptable and global. While this is likely to create new opportunities and use cases, risks and threats may emerge. 

• Some of the main risks associated with the evolution of telecommunication networks relate to misuse of remote sensing capabilities, interference with satellite communications, insufficient network software testing and lack of investment. These would have implications for privacy, security, resilience and deployment. 

• Future communication technologies are increasingly converging with other technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum. There are benefits to be achieved from embracing this convergence, although the risks must also be considered and mitigated. 

Defining future networks

1. This note defines 6G broadly as the next generation of telecoms technologies, recognising that this will likely be an evolution of 5G, providing new capabilities and services, rather than being underpinned by any inherently new technology. 

2. 5G networks in the UK currently operate in Non-Standalone mode, meaning that they still rely on the core infrastructure of 4G networks. The next step towards realising new and improved capabilities will be to upgrade the core networks to deploy Standalone 5G.

3. Telecoms networks are anticipated to become more open, complex and disaggregated, with an increasing number of devices able to communicate with each other across a range of fixed and mobile networks. While this could present new use cases and opportunities, it poses several threats and risks. 

Risks and opportunities posed by the evolution of networks 

Remote sensing

4. Remote sensing is the ability to monitor an object or area via data collected from a distance. The development and deployment of sensing across telecoms networks could have serious privacy implications and be used to reveal increasing amounts of personal user data.

5. The control of physical devices (e.g. cars) remotely via networks could pose a threat to life if abused by malicious actors. To mitigate this, advanced techniques may need to be developed for obscuring signals and securing data from sensors.

Satellite communications

6. Telecoms systems underpinned by non-terrestrial networks (e.g. those using satellites orbiting the Earth) could provide broader coverage than cellular networks. Advances in this technology are anticipated to provide more widespread voice and data connectivity directly from satellites to consumer devices.

7. Jamming and spoofing of signals, such as GPS, can affect the reliability of both satellite and terrestrial communications. Developing alternative systems for position, navigation and timing could help to reduce dependence on GPS.

8. Developing international standards for future communications will be critical for regulating the deployment of networks and ensuring they are safe and secure.

Network security testing and standardisation

9. Continuing the trajectory of 5G towards increasing modularity and interoperability (whereby diverse systems can communicate and exchange data with each other) could result in more complex networks that become increasingly susceptible to security attacks.

10. Although there are currently limited financial incentives for doing so, developing and standardising more rigorous and automated techniques for the testing, measurement and certification of network security would be highly beneficial, particularly if coordinated internationally.

11. Companies who can demonstrate the security and resilience of their networks may be well positioned to supply critical infrastructure providers (e.g. in the energy and defence sectors) in the future.

12. An increasing dependence on cloud services is anticipated to be a key feature of future telecoms networks. A shift in the balance of control over networks away from operators and towards cloud providers could pose significant security concerns and leave networks susceptible to cloud-based attacks.

13. Skills shortages could impact the development, testing, deployment and maintenance of secure future telecoms networks and technologies.

Investment and revenue

14. Despite significant investment, the deployment of 5G has so far generated limited returns for operators. There are concerns that the financial disappointment of 5G may result in a lack of investment in future networks, such as 6G.

15. The UK could benefit from positioning itself to exploit niches in the supply chains of future generations of networks. Supply chain diversification, as networks become more disaggregated, could facilitate a more significant role for smaller companies manufacturing component parts.

16. Connecting private networks together, thereby creating a “network of networks”, could offer new avenues for providers to generate revenues. However, careful measures will need to be employed to ensure the security of these networks.

Technology convergence

17. Telecoms networks and technologies are likely to become increasingly integrated with other technologies, such as AI, quantum and semiconductors. Although this may create increasingly complex networks that become difficult to manage, there are great benefits to be achieved from embracing technology convergence.

18. The UK has an opportunity to take a lead in helping to establish new global standards for 6G and future telecoms networks, underpinned by developments in AI and quantum technologies.

Convergence of future communications with AI

19. It is likely that vendors will embed AI algorithms into the architectures of future networks, which could help to collect data in real time to manage and automate increasingly complex systems. For example, AI algorithms could be used to detect and mitigate attacks on a network in real time. Descriptions of the embedded AI algorithms should be included in future software bills of materials (i.e. inventories of a software supply chain).

20. AI-integrated networks could help to offer more personalised communication services than the current mobile network operator model. However, clear and rigorous governance will be needed to protect personal data and ensure that AI models are secure, trustworthy and explainable.

21. There are concerns that AI development may outpace the formulation of new telecoms standards, resulting in pressure on operators to adopt AI models and algorithms into networks without the necessary safety mitigations. 

22. There is an opportunity for the UK to lead the translation of AI safety research into the telecoms domain, and to pioneer the development of a framework or methodology for the safe and responsible testing and deployment of AI in telecoms networks.

23. Building networks that are reliant on increasing amounts of computing power will have environmental impacts that need to be carefully considered and mitigated responsibly. Using AI to select the most important data to transmit could help to reduce traffic along future networks and lower energy consumption. Incorporating materials or technologies which are more energy efficient could also play a key role in reducing the power consumption of networks.

Convergence of future communications with quantum technologies

24. Developing algorithms to securely encrypt telecoms data will be of increasing importance as critical infrastructure systems, and society in general, become more dependent on future networks.

25. As the capabilities of quantum computers continue to increase, there is a significant risk that they could be used by malicious actors to compromise the security of current communication networks.

26. This has led to the development of new, post-quantum cryptographic systems designed to be resistant to attack by quantum computers. Understanding the exact vulnerabilities of current networks is challenging and makes it difficult to assess the urgency of transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC). 

27. Three of the leading PQC algorithms that could be adopted by future telecoms networks are Dilithium, SPHINCS+ and FALCON, all of which offer different trade-offs in technical specifications and performance.

Attendees

Angela McLean (Chair; Government Chief Scientific Adviser), Henrik Almeida (Ericsson), Yansha Deng (King’s College London), Sophie Greaves (techUK), Silke Holtmanns, Luke Ibbetson (Vodafone), Dritan Kaleshi (Digital Catapult), David Lister (Vodafone), Julie McCann (Imperial College London), Dimitra Simeonidou (University of Bristol), David Soldani (Rakuten), Rahim Tafazolli (University of Surrey), Howard Watson (BT Group), Ollie Whitehouse (NCSC).