Corporate report

Flood Forecasting Centre: annual review 2024 to 2025

Published 16 April 2026

Applies to England and Wales

1. Introduction

The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a working partnership between the Met Office and the Environment Agency. We enhance national resilience across England and Wales. We do this by providing accurate, timely and actionable flood forecasting services.

This review outlines:

• a summary of flood conditions and weather events from April 2024 to March 2025

• our operational performance and verification metrics

• insights from stakeholder engagement and user feedback

• updates on flood modelling capabilities and service improvements

• highlights from our people and outreach activities

2. Overview

The year had sustained wet conditions and many storms, especially in autumn and winter. There were 15 named storms in total. The Met Office named 10 and other national meteorological services named 5.

The winter period was the second wettest in the last decade, with widespread river, surface water and groundwater flooding.

The main weather and flood events were:

April to June 2024

April: Isolated surface water flooding in the Midlands and South West.

May: On 22 May, thunderstorms caused flash flooding in Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire. This affected 45 properties and disrupted rail services.

June: On 18 June, intense rainfall caused flooding in Manchester and Wrexham. Emergency services responded to stranded vehicles and flooded homes.

July to September 2024

July: Surface water flooding in Birmingham and Derby affected over 60 properties. Communities across Lancashire and South Yorkshire experienced localised impacts.

August: Infrastructure-related flooding in Liverpool led to significant disruption. There was deep water build up under railway bridges.

September: Storm Isha brought widespread rainfall and river flooding across the North. Impacts affected more than 500 properties, and authorities issued multiple severe flood warnings.

October to December 2024

October: Storm Kathleen caused major river flooding in Wales and the South West. Coastal impacts in Cornwall affected 120 properties.

November: Storms Lorna and Marcus brought strong winds and heavy rain. Minor flooding occurred in Hampshire and Kent.

December: Groundwater flooding became a concern, especially in Dorset and Wiltshire. The Flood Guidance Statement (FGS) showed significant risk on several days, with persistent high river levels.

January to March 2025

January: Storm Nia led to widespread river flooding in the Midlands and South East. There were impacts to over 1,000 properties and local authorities evacuated several caravan parks.

February: The wettest February on record in southern England. Groundwater levels remained high, with repeated amber FGS days.

March: Continued wet conditions led to surface water flooding in urban centres. The month closed with yellow FGS due to saturated catchments and forecast rainfall.

3. Performance

3.1 Flood Guidance Statement

Timeliness

We issued the FGS on time 99.8% of the time, exceeding our target of 95%. This supports emergency responder planning and decision-making.

Table 1: highest forecast flood risk (all sources) for any FGS issue for each calendar day from April 2024 to March 2025.

Month	Green	Yellow	Amber	Red
April	30	0	0	0
May	29	2	0	0
June	20	10	0	0
July	26	5	0	0
August	23	8	0	0
September	18	10	2	0
October	10	12	9	0
November	20	10	0	0
December	3	27	1	0
January	5	20	6	0
February	7	22	0	0
March	6	25	0	0

Probability of Detection (POD)

The percentage of observed impacts that were forecast at a county scale.

Table 2: POD for all sources of flooding, April 2024 to March 2025.

Source	Lead Time	POD (%)	Observations
Surface Water	Day 2	82%	390
River	Day 3	74%	412
Coastal	Day 3	83%	28
Groundwater	Day 3	84%	240

Table 3: POD rolling 36 months.

Source	Lead Time	POD	No. Observations	RAG status
Surface Water	Day 2	48%	870	Red
River	Day 3	37%	669	Red
Coastal	Day 3	43%	106	Red
Groundwater	Day 3	39%	367	Red

Lead time of first correct forecast

Lead time of first correct forecast is the longest lead time typically provided when the forecast is correct.

Table 4: Target lead time from April 2024 to March 2025.

Source	Target Lead Time	Actual Lead Time	No. Forecasts
Surface Water	Day 2	Day 3	210
River	Day 3	Day 3	118
Coastal	Day 3	Day 4	63
Groundwater	Day 3	N/A	0

Table 5: Target lead time rolling 36 months.

Source	Target Lead Time	Actual Lead Time	No. Forecasts	RAG status
Surface Water	Day 2	Day 2	562	Green
River	Day 3	Day 3	445	Green
Coastal	Day 3	Day 4	77	Green
Groundwater	Day 3	Day 5	167	Green

3.2 Flood Outlook

We issued the Flood Outlook on schedule and in full, twice a month between April 2024 and March 2025.

Forecast identification

The Flood Outlook forecasts:

• identified significant events on 9 April, 12 May and 1 January well ahead of occurrence

• did not account for significant inland flood events in May, August, November, December and January within the 6 to 30 day outlook range

• indicated drier conditions before a very unstable September, where thunderstorms and heavy rain caused flooding on multiple days

• flagged some mid-October flooding in an unscheduled Flood Outlook, releasing it due to saturated ground and a continued wet forecast

• flagged coastal flooding risks around the first spring tides in April

Learning and improvements

After learning from the flood events in 2023, we implemented closer monitoring of forecasts. We now issue updates between scheduled releases more often.

Performance statistics

Flood Outlook performance statistics show that:

• around 40% of minor flooding events (all sources) were forecast in the longer-range Flood Outlook period

• the false alarm rate was 15%

• the outlook missed more events than it forecast - indicating that more events should have been forecast

Overall, coastal and groundwater forecasts performed better than river and surface water forecasts. This reflects the more predictable nature of coastal flooding around spring tides and the slower response of groundwater flooding. River and surface water flooding are faster‑changing.

4. Stakeholder engagement

The FFC undertakes a range of activities to meet the needs of users and understand expectations of key stakeholders, including:

• visits

• user group sessions

• open days

• research

Visitors

The FFC hosted visitors from:

• Defra

• Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)

• Environment Agency

• Natural Resources Wales

• Jersey Met Service

• Irish Met Service

• Delegates from Canada and Malaysia

Engagement activities

We engaged in many events and activities throughout the year, including:

• hosting Stakeholder user groups in June and December 2024 for over 150 users of FFC services

• hosting an Open Day in October, welcoming organisations including the Environment Agency, Defra, National Highways and Natural Resources Wales

• producing tailored reports for Defra and the Secretary of State

• attending quarterly Flood Resilience Taskforce meetings, providing outlooks and updates on service improvements

• attending careers fairs at Exeter and Reading universities

• participating in winter readiness calls and responder briefings

• producing post‑event reports for Storms Isha, Kathleen and Nia

• delivering online training sessions to our user community

• undertaking the biannual responder survey

• carrying out brand and presentation training to improve FFC team communications

Responder survey

The FFC undertook the 2024 responder survey in February. The results showed:

• increased awareness of training resources

• improved satisfaction with forecast accuracy and communication

• greater confidence in the FGS as a planning tool

Improvements made during the year based on the research include:

• a dedicated training inbox

• an email sent out on FGS sign up containing training information

• a review of training approaches to increase future response rates

5. Service development and innovation

Service developments include:

• enhanced surface water modelling capabilities and a trial RFG service

• trials of new ensemble forecasting techniques

• expanded training modules for emergency responders

• a real-time dashboard for verification metrics

• continued integration of user feedback into service design

• development of a case for next generation of FGS software

6. People and culture

The FFC team continues to grow in expertise. Highlights include:

• staff participation in international conferences and workshops

• internal training on climate resilience and hydrological modelling

• recognition of team members for excellence in forecasting