Education export data: scoping exercise: final report (executive summary)
Published 9 March 2023
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International education has always occurred via a breadth of goods, services and business models. In view of this variety, conventional statistical approaches may struggle to quantify the value of UK education exports or provide a satisfactory level of granularity across certain subsectors.
A wealth of scholarship has attempted to fill this research gap and a series of publications by the the Department for Education (DfE) provide the most comprehensive figures to date. This project, funded by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT), has conducted a critical review of the existing methodology. Market trends, international best practices and qualitative interview findings have been synthesized to offer several updates for consideration.
Firstly, the existing taxonomy for education exports has been reformatted, with products grouped into goods and services by modes of supply. As well as distinguishing between business models, this revision facilitates comparisons with other established metrics, such as national statistics.
Secondly, DfE’s approach to quantifying various product groups has been reviewed against four distinct criteria. In some instances, novel data sources allow for revision or refinement. Updated methodological approaches for measuring products such as English Language Training (ELT), Further Education (FE) course fees and Higher Education Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) have improved the quality of these figures. Where reliable data is difficult to locate or does not exist, constructive suggestions for statistical collection have been made.
Thirdly, the revised taxonomy has identified new product groups such as asynchronous online learning and platform learning, Higher education (HE) providers’ other course fees and subscriptions to academic journals.
These amendments have resulted in a revised estimate for past UK education exports. Specifically, cross-border exports are estimated at £24.5 billion (including the living expenditure of international students) for 2019. This figure represents a small increase on the DfE’s observation for “education exports” at £23.0 billion for the same year.
At this level, education exports eclipse those of food and drink, pharmaceuticals and legal services, as measured by both ONS and major industry bodies before the pandemic (ABPI, 2021; FDF, 2021; ONS, 2021; The City UK, 2021).
In addition to these cross-border exports, education services provided by UK foreign affiliates (such as subsidiaries, overseas campuses) were valued at £1.8 billion for 2019. Although, other metrics indicate that this may be something of an underestimate in the absence of reliable data.
As well as revising existing figures, this report estimates that cross-border education exports fell to £22.6 billion in 2020. Whilst student numbers actually increased, living expenditure is thought to have diminished as a consequence of the unprecedented restrictions necessitated by the pandemic. Conversely, education provided by UK foreign affiliates increased to £2.1 billion in the same year.
Figures for 2020 should be interpreted with caution and are best regarded as an ‘experimental estimate’. For some product groups, estimates can be revised once certain HEIs (Higher Education Institutions) release their finance data in June 2022. Elsewhere, for living expenditure exports, some adjustments are made to account for the impact of the pandemic. However, these adjustments are best regarded as an approximation as visa data collection was impeded by COVID-19 (Home Office, 2022).
Similarly, some caution should be exercised when comparing UK education export figures directly with international equivalents. Inevitably, these figures draw on different methodologies.
Finally, this report also identifies avenues for further research and recommendations for improving the existing data. Significant knowledge gaps persist in further education, education-related equipment (such as goods, software), foreign affiliates trade and other sub sectors. The introduction, refinement or update of various surveys offers the best opportunity to fill these gaps. A full outline of recommendations is available in the conclusion.