Guidance

Backcasting: facilitation worksheet

Published 29 August 2024

This worksheet is for the user to adapt and fill in as needed – timings and wording are suggestions only and will need to be tailored to the user’s context. Read other Futures Toolkit resources.

Scoping question:

Participants:

Time	Activity	Content	Notes
-00:30	Set up	Display the Scoping Question prominently. In person: notepads, pens, post-its, flip chart paper to line the wall to create a timeline. Virtual: You will need to be able to use breakout rooms. Make sure that you have prepared your whiteboard with a space in which the groups can create a timeline and add drivers across PESTLE or your chosen categorisation; and add key steps and changes.	If you are working virtually, you may need an introduction to the online whiteboard before you start or send a short “how-to guide”.
00:00 (10 mins)	Introduction and agenda	1. Ask participants to introduce themselves. 2. Introduce the aims of the project for external participants or provide a recap if only internal. 3. Explain how this workshop fits in with any wider futures process. 4. Introduce the workshop, what people will do and what the outcomes will be. 5. Share the agenda. Explain there are 7 steps.	Slide 1: Workshop title: Introduction and welcome. Consider a short icebreaker and allow time for introductions. Slide 2: Agenda: the 7 steps plus breaks
	The preferred future
00:10 (30 mins)	Introduce the preferred future	Give a short presentation that explains: 1) How the preferred future was developed. 2) Its key characteristics and outcomes	The preferred future may be one of a set of scenarios or it may be a single vision developed in a Visioning workshop. It may be useful to give participants a handout that describes the key characteristics of the preferred future or, if working virtually, send in advance.
	Differences to the future
00:40 (60 mins)	Identify the key differences between the present and the preferred future	Explain the PESTLE approach (political, economic, societal, technological, legislative and environmental factors). Ask groups to consider factors in each PESTLE category and to describe the key differences between: 1) Where they are now and in the preferred future. 2) What are the global drivers for change now and in the preferred future. 3) The policy delivery environment now and in the preferred future	Divide participants to work in groups of 4 to 6 (or larger groups if working on a community engagement project). If you have enough groups, you can ask groups to concentrate on one or two categories each, so that you reduce overlaps and cover all categories. Call people back to plenary after 40 minutes to share their ideas.
	Steps to preferred reality
01:20 (40–50 mins)	Build a timeline that sets out the key changes needed to move from the preferred future back to the present reality	Build a timeline that sets out the key changes, events and steps needed to move from the preferred future to the present reality. 1) What needed to happen? 2) What had to happen before that to enable it? 3) Roll the timeline backwards – and try to understand and extract the events, and what enabled them. Map these events on a timeline. Identify the critical events that must occur if the preferred future is to happen. Ask the groups to feed back and compare their timelines and critical events.	Combine into larger groups. Display the preferred future. If there are many participants, ask groups to combine to limit the number of timelines you end up with. If working face-to-face, photograph the timelines to help with the write-up later. Feedback time (5 minutes for each group) depends on the number of groups.
30 mins	Issues you can control
02:00	Identify which changes are in your control and which aren’t	Ask the groups to focus on the critical events from step 3. Using different coloured dots, identify whether each event is: 1. Wholly in our control, 2. partly in our control or 3. wholly out of our control.	Provide coloured dots or explain how to vote if online. The timing of this session will depend on the number of events – focus on the most critical ones. Groups may need to wait for a slower group to finish.
10 mins	Break	Break for refreshments and a stretch if working virtually.	Good chance to look at the timelines
	Deliver what is in your control
02:40 (40 mins)	Identify what you need to do to deliver the steps that are in your control	Ask one group to focus on the critical events on the timeline that are wholly in our control (category 1) and the other on the critical events that are partly in our control (category 2). For each event, identify: 1. The impact it has on delivering the preferred future. 2. Which stakeholders will benefit and which lose out (or feel they may) from this event happening. 3. How certain it is that the event will happen. 4. The enablers to make the event happen or the people you need to work with. 5. The barriers to overcome to make the event happen. 6. Key steps you need to take now.	Divide the team into two groups again. The members of the group do not have to be the same as before. Allow 30 minutes for discussion in groups. Groups to feed back; plenary discussion to agree key steps (10 minutes).
	Outside your control	Identify how you can influence the steps that are outside your control
03:20 (30 mins)		Divide the events that are outside your control between the 2 groups. For each one, identify: 1. Who has control. 2. The impacts of the event not happening. 3. What you can influence to increase the likelihood that the event will occur. 4. Key steps you can take to improve the chances of the event happening.	Ask the groups to feed back to each other in plenary. It is important to understand that a desired future may not be achievable, especially if the critical factors are outside of your control and cannot be managed to produce the desired outcome – and that in itself is a valid output.
	Develop the action plan
03:50 (30 mins)	Next steps	Discuss the next steps. Remaining in plenary, the facilitator may guide the team’s discussion, to agree an action plan.	Capture outcomes of discussion – e.g. photograph the flip charts and timelines or more detailed notes if required.
04:20 (10 mins)	Summary and close	1) Ask if there are any questions. 2) Thank participants. Close session (04:30)	Note: for larger groups, an extra 30 minutes may be needed during the workshop to allow time for groups to feed back