Russia skews economy in effort to prop up its war machine: UK statement to the OSCE
UK military advisor, Nicholas Aucott, says Russia’s economy is running hot in a war that is projected to cost Russia half a million casualties by 2025.
Thank you, Mr Chair. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues unabated. Throughout April, Russia intensified its attacks, particularly around the regions of Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar and Marinka. And in recent days, illegal incursions across the Russia-Ukraine border have led to further engagements in Vovchansk and Lyptsi.
If we truly believe in the ideals upon which this organisation is founded, then this naked act of aggression must be confronted. Putin’s obsession to destroy Ukraine as a free and sovereign democracy is part of a renewed era of state-on-state competition. This war is an attack not only on Ukrainian sovereignty but a broader challenge to global security. Russia is seeking to undermine the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act and the wider international order, which are all built on principles of sovereignty and respect.
Despite the limited gains Russia has made in the last few days, this war has been a strategic disaster for Putin and continues to be hugely costly. The Russian Armed Forces have shown themselves to be badly equipped, badly led and suffering low morale.
Putin has now had to place his economy on a war footing meaning that it is running hot and becoming increasingly skewed as nearly 40% of all Russian public expenditure and 6% of GDP is now spent on defence. Russia’s casualty rate, at over 450,000, is more than it suffered in 10 years of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
At the current rate, by 2025, Russia will have sustained well over half a million personnel killed and wounded over three years of its needless war. Increasingly diminished, Russia is having to resort to Iran and North Korea for lethal aid. At the recent parade in Moscow, commemorating Victory Day, of the 30 units on parade over two-thirds were sourced from military academies, youth and veteran groups. Indeed, the lone ceremonial second world war era T-34 tank, which traditionally starts the parade, was the sole Main Battle Tank present.
Mr Chair, all of this points to a country in decline, a country reaping the consequences of its own illegal actions to invade another sovereign country. And all this for a war that Russia cannot win.
Mr Chair, the UK’s support for Ukraine will remain steadfast. We will continue to provide them with the support they need to bravely resist Russian aggression. Despite Russia’s distorted narrative which it pedals to justify a war that benefits a small Russian elite, it is essential that we, in this Forum, remain clear-eyed and cognisant of the far greater cost that would fall on us all if they were to succeed.
Mr Chair, the United Kingdom remains committed to a stable and peaceful international order, based on the fundamental principles of the UN Charter. It is for this reason that we will stand with Ukraine for however long it takes to ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and prosperity are secured. Moscow should be left in no doubt about this. Thank you.