What needs to be done across the estuary (outcomes): Thames Estuary 2100
The outcomes that the Environment Agency will work with its partners to achieve along the Thames Estuary by 2100.
Applies to England
The outcomes are central to Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100). They set out what the Environment Agency and our partners need to do to achieve our aims.
You should familiarise yourself with the outcomes if you:
- manage flood risk
- plan, design or manage public space (placemaking)
- are shaping the future of the estuary
Outcomes apply to the whole estuary, but each of the 23 policy units have specific requirements for their area, based on local needs and the flood risk policy. These are set out in the list of policy units by local council.
Each outcome is associated with at least one of the Plan’s aims and strategic objectives. This makes it clear what work needs to happen to implement the Plan and why.
Creating outcome delivery plans
The Environment Agency and its partners will create outcome delivery plans. These will include short-term actions and deadlines for organisations. We will update the plans based on local priorities and other activities.
We will also develop a benefits realisation plan. This will enable us to measure the benefits of Thames Estuary 2100.
1. Maintaining tidal flood defences
Tidal flood defences continue to provide the required standard of protection. These are set out by the flood risk management policies.
How we will do this
1.1 Flood defence owners will continue to maintain:
- flood walls and embankments
- major barriers
- flood gates, outfalls and pumping stations
They should follow an optimised maintenance approach. This means investing at the right time to extend a defence’s lifespan, ensuring it can be adapted to sea level rise and is resilient to climate change.
1.2 The Environment Agency will work with councils and defence owners to plan to upgrade, replace, realign or decommission flood defences. This should be done in line with local regeneration plans.
Aims and objectives for outcome 1
Outcome 1 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 1: maintain flood defences in line with the flood risk management policies
2. Improving fixed flood defences
Flood walls and embankments protect against future sea level rise. They are adapted, raised, realigned or replaced in line with the flood risk management policies and riverside strategy visions.
How we will do this
2.1 Councils should ensure that riverside development incorporates future flood defence requirements. Developers can adapt defences so that they can be raised in future, or raise them early if it is more efficient. They should also deliver wider benefits in line with riverside strategy visions.
2.2 By 2025, the Environment Agency will improve understanding of how defence heights could be raised across the estuary. This will include:
- setting out the legal responsibilities of defence owners
- how raising can be achieved
2.3 By 2030, councils will work with communities to develop visions for future riversides. These should show how riverside development can incorporate flood defence upgrades. This is the riverside strategy approach.
2.4 By 2030, the Environment Agency, councils and defence owners will produce a plan for raising flood defences.
2.5 By 2040, defence owners downstream (east) of the Thames Barrier have adapted, raised, realigned or replaced defences in line with the flood risk management policies.
2.6 By 2050, defence owners upstream of the Thames Barrier have adapted, raised, realigned or replaced defences in line with the flood risk management policies, whilst maximising benefits and efficiencies.
2.7 Defences will need to be raised further towards the end of the century. The Environment Agency will set out requirements for this in future updates to this Plan.
Aims and objectives for outcome 2
Outcome 2 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 2: adapt and improve all existing flood defences by the current deadlines set out in this Plan
3. Creating a better riverside for local communities
Visions for the riverside show how flood defence upgrades can deliver social value and multiple benefits. These also enable upgrades to take place through riverside development.
How we will do this
3.1 By 2030, councils, the Greater London Authority and the Port of London Authority will have worked with communities to co-develop visions for adapting riversides to sea level rise. These should incorporate the minimum requirements of the riverside strategy approach, deliver social, environmental and economic benefits, and promote continuation of the Thames Path.
3.2 By 2030, the Joint Thames Strategies (Thames Landscape Strategy, Thames Strategy – Kew to Chelsea, and Thames Strategy East) will have been updated to reflect the riverside strategy approach and extended to cover all reaches of the Thames Estuary.
3.3 By 2030, local planning authorities will have embedded these visions into the statutory spatial planning framework. This will increase opportunities to realise multiple benefits through upgrading defences as part of riverside development.
Aims and objectives for outcome 3
Outcome 3 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim B: protect and enhance the value of the Thames, its tidal tributaries and floodplain – deliver social, cultural and commercial benefits for communities and support resilient growth
- strategic objective 5: work together to develop community-led visions for future riversides – these will drive flood defence upgrades and identify where to deliver wider benefits
4. Maintaining the Thames Barrier until 2070
The Thames Barrier continues to operate reliably and effectively as part of the wider flood defence system.
How we will do this
4.1 The Environment Agency will use the Thames Barrier, alongside the other defences in the estuary, to manage tidal surges and significant fluvial floods.
4.2 The Port of London Authority will continue to work with the Environment Agency to ensure safe navigation of ships during operation and maintenance of the Thames Barrier.
4.3 By 2030, the Environment Agency will improve the accuracy of tidal forecasting in the Thames Estuary as far as possible. This will reduce the number of precautionary closures of the Thames Barrier and other major barriers in the estuary.
4.4 By 2030, the Environment Agency will improve how we plan and do maintenance, and operate the Thames Barrier, until an end-of-century option is in place by 2070.
4.5 Between now and 2035, the Environment Agency will work with west London communities who are protected by Thames Barrier closures during fluvial floods. Together we will put alternative flood risk management arrangements in place by 2035. From this date we will not use the Thames Barrier to manage smaller fluvial floods. This will reduce the number of closures and prolong its lifespan until an end-of-century option is in place.
Aims and objectives for outcome 4
Outcome 4 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 1: maintain flood defences in line with the flood risk management policies
5. Deciding on the future of the Thames Barrier
An end-of-century option for adapting to sea level rise is in place by 2070.
How we will do this
5.1 By 2025, the Environment Agency will create a roadmap of actions required to decide on an end-of-century option. This will include investigating funding options as part of an investment strategy.
5.2 By 2030, the Environment Agency will review the end-of-century options ahead of the next Plan update. This may involve altering or discounting options that are no longer viable.
5.3 Natural England and Historic England will support the Environment Agency to prepare an updated Strategic Environmental Assessment and Habitat Regulations Assessment. This should happen alongside the review of the end-of-century options.
5.4 By 2040, the Environment Agency will work with partners to select an end-of-century option, using the latest data and evidence.
5.5 The Environment Agency will continue to review options for managing sea level rise beyond 2100. This will include investigating a barrier with locks. Based on current climate projections, we expect to need this by 2120.
Aims and objectives for outcome 5
Outcome 5 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 3: accelerate preparations to decide on an end-of-century option by 2040 - the preferred option and timeline may change as this Plan adapts to future changes
6. Managing flood risk from all sources
The interactions between tidal, fluvial, surface water and groundwater flood risk are understood and managed better.
How we will do this
6.1 The Environment Agency, lead local flood authorities and water companies will work together to improve understanding of how outfalls, sewer networks and other flood defences impact flood risk. This will include joint probability analysis of high tides and rainfall.
6.2 Local planning authorities, lead local flood authorities, water companies, transport and other infrastructure providers will embed Thames Estuary 2100 outcomes within:
- local plans
- local flood risk management strategies
- flood risk management plans
- drainage and wastewater management plans
- surface water management plans
- infrastructure investment cycles and other relevant plans
6.3 The Environment Agency will work with councils and flood defence owners to improve understanding of the interaction of flood risk between the tidal Thames and its tributaries.
Aims and objectives for outcome 6
Outcome 6 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 8: improve understanding of the link between sea level rise and other sources of flood risk - use spatial and emergency planning to create resilient communities
7. Increasing resilience to flood risk
Communities and businesses are more aware of flood risk and able to adapt, respond and recover from flooding. This is particularly important in areas where flood risk will increase over time with climate change.
How we will do this
7.1 Organisations will work together to increase resilience to flooding. They will use innovative ways to ensure those who live, work and visit the estuary are aware of flood risk and can adapt, respond and recover from flooding. Organisations involved include:
- Thames Estuary Growth Board
- Thames 21
- Greater London Authority
- Environment Agency
- Thames Estuary Partnership
7.2 The Environment Agency will map where tidal flood risk will increase over time in P3 policy units in the outer estuary. They will identify dates from when flooding could occur, and areas that will be impacted.
7.3 The Environment Agency will work with councils and communities to equip affected communities with the knowledge and tools to be resilient to flooding.
7.4 The Environment Agency will give infrastructure providers data on present and future tidal flood risk.
7.5 Infrastructure providers will use this data to identify what is at risk. They will ensure critical sites are resilient to flooding in line with responsibilities under the Climate Change Act.
Aims and objectives for outcome 7
Outcome 7 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 8: improve understanding of the link between sea level rise and other sources of flood risk - use spatial and emergency planning to create resilient communities
8. Ensuring development is resilient to climate change
Ensure that growth and infrastructure are resilient to future sea level rise.
How we will do this
8.1 Regional and local planning authorities will embed Thames Estuary 2100 requirements into local planning policy.
8.2 The Greater London Authority (GLA), Port of London Authority (PLA) and Thames Estuary Growth Board (TEGB) will ensure that the requirements of the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan are embedded in the:
- London Plan and supporting strategies (GLA)
- Thames Vision 2050 (PLA)
- Green Blue Workplan (TEGB)
This will ensure that future development of the riverside is sustainable and supports increased river use.
8.3 Local planning authorities will ensure there is no inappropriate development in tidal flood risk areas.
Aims and objectives for outcome 8
Outcome 8 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim B: protect and enhance the value of the Thames, its tidal tributaries and floodplain - deliver social, cultural and commercial benefits for communities and support resilient growth
- strategic objective 5: work together to develop community-led visions for future riversides – these will drive flood defence upgrades and identify where to deliver wider benefits
9. Improving biodiversity
Enhance biodiversity and enable nature recovery.
How we will do this
9.1 All partners will contribute to delivering biodiversity and environmental net gain, whilst minimising adverse environmental impacts from riverside development. Improvements should be made working with the Nature Recovery Network.
9.2 The Environment Agency will work with Natural England and other partners to replace habitat projected to be lost through coastal squeeze.
9.3 By epoch 2 in 2026, the Environment Agency will update projections for designated sites lost through coastal squeeze. This should consider changes during epoch 1, updated climate projections and changes in defence upgrade deadlines.
9.4 Flood defence owners will create connected habitats as flood defences are upgraded. This should align with local nature recovery strategies.
9.5 The Environment Agency will work with partners and communities to monitor habitat quantity, condition and connectivity.
Aims and objectives for outcome 9
Outcome 9 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim C: tackle the climate and nature crises by putting sustainability at the heart of the Plan - restore ecosystems, reduce carbon, and deliver environmental and biodiversity net gain
- strategic objective 7: replace habitat lost to sea level rise, support nature recovery and deliver environmental net gain
10. Working towards net zero
The Thames Estuary 2100 Plan’s operations and supply chains contribute to carbon net zero targets.
How we will do this
10.1 The Environment Agency will collaborate with Thames Estuary 2100 partners to agree responsibilities and timescales for achieving carbon net zero targets. These should be adaptable to policy changes and climate indicators.
10.2 All Thames Estuary 2100 partners will adopt a circular economy approach by:
- improving resource efficiency
- minimising emissions and waste
This will provide cost efficiencies whilst improving air, land and water quality.
Aims and objectives for outcome 10
Outcome 10 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim C: tackle the climate and nature crises by putting sustainability at the heart of the Plan - restore ecosystems, reduce carbon, and deliver environmental and biodiversity net gain
- strategic objective 6: embed carbon reduction pathways within this Plan, striving to achieve carbon net zero status
11. Adapting our approach using the latest science and data
Latest science and data drives the adaptive approach to managing the risk of rising sea levels.
How we will do this
11.1 The Environment Agency will work with partner and community organisations, such as the Thames Estuary Partnership and Zoological Society of London, to monitor changes affecting the estuary and its climate. They will share findings as open data.
11.2 The Environment Agency will improve understanding of adaptive planning through the national Adaptation Pathways Programme. They will share learning across the UK and internationally to increase the ability of communities to plan and adapt to future flooding and coastal change.
11.3 In 2025, the Environment Agency will carry out the next review of the indicators of change.
11.4 By 2030, the Environment Agency will start the next full review and update to this Plan.
Aims and objectives for outcome 11
Outcome 11 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- aim A: take an adaptive approach to manage tidal flooding and create climate resilient communities
- strategic objective 4: track indicators of change and review every 5 years - update this Plan at least every 10 years using an adaptive FCERM (flood and coastal erosion risk management) economic approach, based on monitoring evidence
12. Securing land for Thames Estuary 2100
Secure land for flood defence upgrades, associated riverside enhancements, and habitat improvements. This should include the end-of-century option.
How we will do this
12.1 By 2030, the Environment Agency will work with councils, landowners and communities to develop a land plan for the end-of-century options. This will set out how, when and where to secure land.
12.2 By 2030, the Environment Agency will work with councils, landowners and communities to develop a Thames Estuary 2100 land strategy. This will set out how, when and where to secure land for all flood defence maintenance, upgrades and habitat requirements.
12.3 Councils, landowners and developers will work with the Environment Agency to ensure that land identified for future flood defence infrastructure is available for appropriate use in the interim.
Aims and objectives for outcome 12
Outcome 12 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- strategic objective 10 (strategic enabler): develop and put in place a strategy to secure land to deliver this Plan - this will ensure future options remain viable and maximise opportunities for wider benefits
13. Funding multiple benefits through investment
Secure investment to deliver this Plan. This should include funding required in addition to flood defence grant in aid, to enable multiple benefits to be delivered.
How we will do this
13.1 The Environment Agency will explore innovative methods to finance this Plan at an estuary-wide scale and secure sustainable investment across all policy units.
13.2 From 2023, the Environment Agency will use the national Flood and Coastal Innovation Programmes to improve understanding of adaptation planning within the Thames Estuary.
13.3 By 2025, the Environment Agency will work with beneficiaries to develop an investment strategy. This will include:
- exploring innovative funding mechanisms
- financing the end-of-century options
- legal roles, responsibilities and long-term options to ensure efficient and effective investment
13.4 Infrastructure providers, businesses and others who benefit from this Plan should contribute to the delivery of multiple benefits, either financially or otherwise.
Aims and objectives for outcome 13
Outcome 13 contributes to the following aims and objectives:
- strategic objective 11 (strategic enabler): develop and put in place a long-term investment strategy for this Plan - this will enable us to realise the financial benefits of an adaptation pathways approach
Enabling activity 1: Working together to benefit the estuary and its communities
We will take a benefits-led approach to delivering the Plan, working collaboratively and taking opportunities to deliver more for the Thames Estuary and its communities.
How we will do this
E1.1 The Environment Agency will develop a benefits realisation plan and update this every 10 years. Every action set out in the outcome delivery plans should map to the benefits it can help achieve, enabling partners to prioritise activities accordingly.
E1.2 The Strategic Board (partner-led) and Thames Estuary Board (Environment Agency-led) will own the benefits delivered by this Plan. These Boards will ensure funding is prioritised appropriately to deliver the benefits.
E1.3 The benefits-led approach will drive development and management of an investment strategy to secure funding of this Plan (see outcome 13).
Enabling activity 2: working collaboratively
Partners work collaboratively to deliver this Plan.
How we will do this
E2.1 The Environment Agency will work with partners to develop an engagement strategy identifying engagement objectives, key stakeholders and engagement activities required to deliver the outcomes
E2.2 Partners will play a role in identifying and supporting engagement opportunities to enable delivery of this Plan’s outcomes. Specific roles will be identified through the outcome delivery plans.
E2.3 Partners will work collaboratively to deliver this Plan, to improve efficiency and effectiveness of resources.
Enabling activity 3: Developing skills and securing resources
We have the people, skills and capabilities to deliver this Plan.
How we will do this
E3.1 The Environment Agency will develop tools and guidance to improve understanding and knowledge of Thames Estuary 2100 for those involved in delivering it.
E3.2 Delivery partners (those named in the outcomes) will ensure that skills and capabilities exist within their organisation to deliver their outcomes. They should ensure that knowledge is maintained through staff turnover.
E3.3 The Environment Agency will work with partners to develop a resource plan identifying:
- the resources and skills needed to deliver this Plan
- gaps in current resource and skills sets
- opportunities to fill these gaps, including innovative solutions
E3.4 The Strategic Board (on behalf of all delivery partners) and Thames Estuary Board (on behalf of the Environment Agency) should identify and implement solutions to fill resource gaps. Where gaps cannot be filled, these boards will agree how to prioritise delivery of this Plan.
Timeline
A timeline for achieving the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan’s outcomes between 2023 and 2070. The timeline shows outcomes including:
- raising flood defences
- planning for the future of the Thames Barrier
- creating an investment plan
- developing land and riverside strategies