Official Statistics

Statistical report: near to real-time suspected suicide surveillance (nRTSSS) for England for the 15 months to February 2024

Updated 30 May 2024

Applies to England

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This report contains sensitive content which refers to details on deaths by suspected suicide.

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and the Republic of Ireland) or contact other sources of support, such as those listed on the NHS help for suicidal thoughts webpage. Support is available around the clock, every day of the year, providing a safe place for you, whoever you are and however you are feeling.

If you are a journalist covering a suicide-related issue, please consider following the Samaritans’ media guidelines on the reporting of suicide because of the potentially damaging consequences of irresponsible reporting. In particular, the guidelines advise on terminology and include links to sources of support for anyone affected by the themes in this report.



This report draws upon suspected suicide data from across England supplied by local police force areas (PFAs) submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) Suicide Prevention Portfolio. The data presented in this report is for rapid surveillance. Its purpose is to complement the Office for National Statistics reporting of suicide, which is based on coroner’s verdict, that confirms cause of death, but is not as up to date.

Summary of findings

Data on deaths by suspected suicide in England shows that for the period December 2022 to February 2024:

  • rates are higher for males compared to females

  • rates are higher for the age groups 25 to 44 and 45 to 64 compared to the 10 to 24 and 65 and over age groups

  • the proportion of deaths for the method group ‘hanging, strangulation and suffocation’ is the highest across all quarters - however, there is a continual decrease in proportion across the reporting period

  • the proportion of deaths for method group ‘drowning’ shows a continual increase across the whole reporting period

When considering the findings in this report readers should take into account that:

  • rates for the most recent month and 3 others are based on around 80% of England’s population, the other 11 months are based on about 70%, therefore some caution should be applied when considering these findings

  • the rates reported for February and January 2024, and August and September 2023 are based on a population that includes a greater proportion of areas with ‘low’ suicide rates than the other reported months

  • as February is the shortest month (29 days in a leap year), this may contribute to the lower number of cases reported in the latest month

Introduction

The purpose of the work is to provide an early warning system for indications of changes in trends in suicides through analysis of data on suspected suicides. This data can inform and enable a more timely and targeted prevention response to changing patterns in suspected suicides.

The data outputs from the near to real-time suspected suicide surveillance (nRTSSS) work programme are primarily for national and local organisations working on suicide prevention.

The designation ‘suspected suicide’ is provided by the police and the term is used because the cause of death has not yet been confirmed by coroner inquest. When ‘sudden and unexpected’ death occurs, the suspected cause of death is allocated by the attending police officer. There is then a review, based on guidance from the NPCC, before a death is reported as a ‘suspected suicide’.

The listed suspected suicide methods presented in this report have also not been confirmed by coroner inquest and should be viewed as provisional.

The report presents data at England level. It includes overall numbers and rates of death by suspected suicide and breaks the data down by age group and sex. This data is presented as monthly directly standardised rates (DSRs).

The report also includes suspected suicide method, grouped by category. This data is shown as proportions of all suspected suicides and is presented as quarterly figures.  

All data is presented for the most recent available 15 months to enable comparison to the same period in the previous year.

This report is classified as official statistics in development.

Important to know

To enhance understanding of the report, some important terms and aspects of the work are explained below. Further details on how these terms are defined and used, and on how results were generated, are provided in the methodology section.

Data presented in this report is based on month and year of death occurrence. This differs from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suicide statistics which are usually based on date of registration of death. The approach used in this report allows monitoring of seasonal variation in trends and is more appropriate for surveillance purposes.  

Not all PFAs submit records each month and some PFA submissions are not used in monthly reporting. For records from a PFA to be included in monthly reporting, there must be a submission for that month, and it must meet the ‘observed compared to expected’ criteria. This means the number of deaths by suspected suicide are compared with the number that would be expected, based on recent deaths by suicide for that area (as collected by ONS). Information on the number of PFAs whose data are included, number of records used in reporting, and detail on the excluded population, is in the ‘Basis for reporting’ section.  

Data about method is presented by quarter, because the number of method groups would lead to small number suppression if presented monthly. All records received are included in quarterly presentation. The actual number of deaths for each method group are available in the data tables.

Data is presented for a 15 month period to enable comparison to the same months in the previous year. This is because in England there is some evidence of seasonal differences in suicide rates, with higher rates for males between April and June, and for females in the first half of the year.

The monthly data is presented as age directly standardised rates, to enable comparison between groups and over time.

Due to relatively small numbers, identified trends in deaths may not have statistical significance. Within this report, where a change is viewed as potentially important, comments are included in the text accompanying figures.

It is important to note that as rates of death by suicide and suspected suicide vary across the country, while this surveillance is not yet based on all of England, figures will be affected by which PFAs are included. For example, if data from areas where rates are lower are included, whilst data from areas with higher rates excluded, the effect will be that the England rates will be lower than if this was reversed.

Although report production is based on allowing sufficient time for most recent data being representative of the population, it must be recognised that the most recent months are most likely to be missing some cases.

Records received late will be included within the next possible update. This means that coverage is likely to improve over time and statistics may be subject to change.

New in this update

This surveillance report is revised monthly to ensure it is as up to date as possible. Each update includes new data for the most recent time period and any additional delayed records for previously published months. Methodological and analytical improvements to the data presented in this report will be added as the official statistic develops.

The May 2024 report includes:

  • new data for February 2024 (and the removal of data for November 2022) so that reporting covers the most recent 15 month period

  • additional data for the months January 2024, December 2023 and November 2023, due to delayed submissions by some PFAs

  • recalculated monthly rates for the months affected by delayed submissions

  • recalculated quarterly proportions by method type for quarters affected by delayed submissions

Findings

Monthly rates

This section presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide in England for the period December 2022 to February 2024. The rates are presented as directly standardised rates (DSRs). Further details on how DSRs were calculated are available in the methodology section.

Monthly rates are presented for:

  • persons

  • sex as female and male

  • age groups as 10 to 24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and over

Between December 2022 and February 2024 out of 5,057 deaths:

  • 3,728 (73.7%) were in males and 1,329 (26.3%) in females

  • 486 (9.6%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 1,899 (37.6%) in people aged 25 to 44, 1,927 (38.1%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 745 (14.7%) in people aged 65 and over

In February 2024 out of 300 deaths:

  • 231 (77.0%) were in males and 69 (23.0%) in females

  • 30 (10.0%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 100 (33.3%) in people aged 25 to 44, 119 (39.7%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 51 (17.0%) in people aged 65 and over

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 1 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 2 presents monthly rates of deaths by suspected suicide for males aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 3 presents monthly rates of deaths by suspected suicide for females aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

A comparison of monthly suspected suicide rates in England for males and females between December 2022 and February 2024 shows that:

  • rates are significantly higher for males and this aligns with trends observed for deaths by suicide

  • male rates of suspected suicide are generally around 3 times higher than females

  • males have higher rates in the early summer months - seasonal trends are less apparent for females

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 4 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 10 to 24 years in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 5 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 25 to 44 years in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 6 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 45 to 64 years in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 7 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 65 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending February 2024.

A comparison of monthly suspected suicide rates in England for the 4 age groups between December 2022 and February 2024 shows that:

  • rates are higher in the 25 to 44 and 45 to 64 age groups than in the 10 to 24 and 65 and over age groups - these differences are generally statistically significant

  • there are indications of higher rates in the early summer months for the 25 to 44 and 65 and over age groups - seasonal trends are less apparent for other age groups

Method of death by suspected suicide

This section presents quarterly proportions of deaths by suspected suicide in England by method type group. The data is for the period quarter 4 (Q4 - October to December) 2022 to Q4 2023.

Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, 6,404 suspected suicides were recorded with:

  • 1,250 in Q4 2022

  • 1,217 in Q1 2023

  • 1,367 in Q2 2023

  • 1,340 in Q3 2023

  • 1,230 in Q4 2023

Data is presented for persons aged 10 and over, using the following method type groups:

  • hanging, suffocation and strangulation (3,620 deaths)

  • poisoning (1,443 deaths)

  • fall and fracture (364 deaths)

  • jumping or lying in front of a moving object (332 deaths)

  • other or unknown (316 deaths)

  • drowning (212 deaths)

  • sharp object (192 deaths)

Please note that for some deaths more than one method is recorded.

Figure 8: proportion of deaths by suspected suicide method type, in England, persons, Q4 2022 to Q4 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 8 presents quarterly proportions of death by suspected suicide method type for persons aged 10 and over in England, between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. This figure shows that:

  • in all reported quarters hanging, suffocation and strangulation is the most common method type and it accounts for more than half of all deaths - however, this proportion appears to be decreasing over time

  • the proportion of deaths by drowning shows a continual increase across the quarters reported - this trend will be monitored

For some method types, the quarterly number of deaths by suspected suicide is small and this should be considered when interpreting changes in proportions. The number of deaths by method type group and reporting quarter are available in the data tables.

Basis for reporting

Although from the same source, the basis for monthly and quarterly figures in this report are different. This reflects data quality and data requirements for the reporting periods, and approach to data presentation.

Monthly reporting is based on the 15 months from December 2022 to February 2024. Reporting for February 2024 is based on data from 30 of 39 PFAs in England. The data points for the 14 months prior to February 2024 are based on between 28 and 32 PFAs.

The PFAs, and the populations within them, that are excluded from monthly reporting will affect the monthly rates. To help understand this, missing PFAs have been categorised as having low, medium or high rates based on historical suicides. Knowing this will help understand if missing data is likely to lead to the reported figures skewing high, low or being broadly representative of England.

For February 2024, missing PFAs accounted for 18.3% of England’s population. Of this population, 1.3% were categorised as low, 11.4% as medium and 5.4% as high. As there is less excluded data from populations likely to have low suspected suicide rates, the reported England rate may appear low. An overview of populations excluded for each month covered in this report is available in the data tables.  

Please note that due to rounding, the proportions of PFAs categorised as low, medium or high might not add up to the overall proportions of the population excluded.

Reporting for February 2024 is based on 300 records. Overall, there were 372 suspected suicide records received. However, due to data quality issues, 72 could not be included. The data points for the 14 months prior to February 2024 are based on between 290 and 439 suspected suicide records, drawn from between 382 and 502 received records. The overall 15 month report is based on 5,057 records.

Reporting for the month February 2024 is based on PFAs that cover 81.7% of the population in England aged 10 and over. The data points for the 14 months prior to February 2024 are based on between 64.8% and 82.8% of this population.

Quarterly reporting is based on the 15 months from October 2022 to December 2023. All PFAs in England submitted some records during that period. However, not all PFAs submitted data every month, and some monthly submissions were likely to be under reporting. Quarterly reporting is based on all records received but it is not based on all suspected suicide cases in England during the period.

The fields from the NPCC data used in analysis and reporting are age, gender, date of death, place of death and method.

Detail on suspected suicide records and proportions of the English population covered for each month are available in the data tables.

Acknowledgement

This report draws upon data from across England supplied by local police force areas submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council Suicide Prevention Portfolio. Without NPCC’s collaboration and the involvement of every police force in England, this work would not have been possible.

Background and further information

This work is supported and enhanced by continuing feedback and input from:

  • members of the nRTSSS System Leadership Group

  • local systems and police force areas

Responsible statistician:

  • Head of Intelligence (Mental Health Intelligence Network, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID))

Product leads:

  • Programme Lead (Mental Health Intelligence Network, OHID)

  • Deputy Director (Clinical Epidemiology, OHID)

This report complies with: 

For queries relating to this publication please contact mhin@dhsc.gov.uk

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