Policy paper

UK–Tajikistan development partnership summary, March 2024

Published 27 March 2024

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Introduction

The International Development White Paper sets out a re-energised agenda for the UK working with partners to accelerate progress on eliminating extreme poverty, tackling climate change and biodiversity loss, and accelerating progress on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. In a contested world, where ODA alone will not be enough, achieving the vision as set out in the SDGs requires a radical rethink in our approach to international development. The White Paper sets out how our partnerships are central to this approach. These are founded on mutual respect, with an emphasis on country ownership, accountability, transparency and common values. This country development partnership summary details how the approach detailed in the White Paper will be put into practice with Tajikistan.

Country context

Tajikistan is a mountainous, landlocked country with China to the east and Afghanistan to the south, with a population of 10.1 million, 68% of which are under thirty[footnote 1]. Tajikistan has significant growth potential, with resources including water, agriculture, minerals as well as opportunities for tourism. Hydro-power accounts for about 98%[footnote 2] of power generation and the country has unexploited potential, sufficient to cover the electricity needs of the whole of Central Asia[footnote 3]. At 0.7 tonnes/capita, Tajikistan has the smallest carbon footprint in Central Asia[footnote 4]. Over the last decade, Tajikistan has experienced strong economic performance, with growth averaging above 7%[footnote 5]. It has made impressive strides on poverty reduction[footnote 6] however, there are significant rural/urban disparities. 73% of the country’s poor people live in rural areas and one-third of its population suffers from undernourishment[footnote 7]. COVID-19 exacerbated inequalities, including gender inequalities. Tajikistan is vulnerable to external shocks due to its high dependency on migrant remittances[footnote 8]; has an undiversified economy and export base as well as high risk of debt distress. The private sector is small and accounts for only 15% of total investment; 30% of industrial output, and about 13% of formal employment[footnote 9].

Tajikistan became independent in 1991 and remains a centralised presidential republic. Indices suggest a downward trend on the quality of governance[footnote 10], with low scores across all dimensions including control of corruption[footnote 11]. There has been a decline in civic space[footnote 12] and media freedom[footnote 13]. It faces multiple drivers of conflict and insecurity including disputed borders, political and economic grievances, land and water issues. Energy, water, and climate are interconnected regional issues in Central Asia. Tajikistan depends on hydropower from transboundary rivers and is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters. Between 1992 and 2016, about $1.8 billion in GDP was lost due to climate-related events[footnote 14].

The government set an ambitious target – to increase domestic incomes by 2 to 3.5 times between 2016 and 2030. This will require structural reforms which enable public sector efficiency and transparency; the creation of a dynamic private sector to support job creation; improvements to the enabling environment; access to finance; improvements in trade and transport connectivity; as well as energy sector reforms. It will also be necessary to ensure targeted measures to reduce inequality, and support climate adaptation and resilience to ensure stability.

Why and how: the UK’s development offer with Tajikistan

In Tajikistan, the UK aims to: support a more resilient, stable, prosperous future for the country and the wider region, a more open, inclusive society and a greener economy. HMG’s work in Tajikistan directly contributes to the Tajik Government’s Vision 2023; IR23 and the 4 priority areas of the International Development Strategy as well as the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our priority areas of focus on development include:

Reform

Enabling economic growth, for example, through targeted support to the digital economy and SMEs; We advocate for changes in regulation, legislation, and business environment practices and support market orientated reforms to open up markets. We support investments education reforms as an enabler of growth; as well as interventions which contribute to poverty reduction. We work to address Gender Based Violence (GBV) as well as greater access to GBV services; as well as to create an enabling environment for civil society engagement and media freedom.

Stability

We promote regional stability, address local conflicts and climate change through regional co-operation on energy and water. We support alignment with the Paris Agreement and COP26 outcomes and implementation of regional and national climate/nature plans towards a credible pathway to net zero. We work with the private sector and communities, for example, with businesses to design ways to reduce carbon emissions. We also work with civil society, to advocate on climate issues and support climate vulnerable communities.

Prosperity

We support Tajikistan to prosper and work to foster interest by UK companies in Tajikistan and Tajik interest in the UK, especially on the green economy/renewables, leveraging the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS).

Key programmes

Bilaterally, we have moved away from stand-alone country-focused to regional ODA programmes. Our top 3 programmes include:

  • Central Asia Effective Governance for Economic Development (EGED)
    • duration: 2020 to 2025
    • expected outcome: Improved effectiveness, accountability and transparency of economic policy delivery on selected reform priorities the region
  • Climate, Energy and Water Security for Central Asia region (CEW-CA)
    • duration: 2024 to 2030 *expected outcome: improve Central Asia’s resilience and sovereignty by delivering low carbon and climate resilient growth across the region, through strengthened regional cooperation.
  • UK-Central Asia Green Inclusive Growth Fund:
    • duration: 2024 to 2029
    • expected outcome: improved SME capacity and increased flow of green investment finance in Central Asia.

The top 3 Centrally Managed Programmes (CMPs) are listed below. We also have smaller scale engagements through international programme targeting climate action.

  • UK support to the Global Partnership for Education (GPE):
    • regional budget: £10 million (15% UK contribution)
    • duration: 2021 to 2026
    • expected outcome: Improved access to and quality of early childhood education.
  • Global Tax and Public Goods (GTP):
    • regional budget: £3.2 million
    • end date: 2024
    • expected outcome: strengthening tax institutions and mobilizing revenues at the domestic level.

Who we work with

We work in partnership with like-minded countries, including the: US, EU, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Japan. We are a standing member of the Donor Coordination group – the country donor platform to discuss development to Tajikistan – and its sub-groups on climate, private sector development, and rule of law. We work closely with International Financial Institutions (IFIs), particularly the World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC), as well as United Nations (UN) agencies, including Resident Coordinator Office, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). We work with a wide range of partners in the Government of Tajikistan including the President’s Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministries of: Economy and Trade, Finance, Industry, Labour and Migration, Defence, and law enforcement agencies. We work across the UK government, for example with the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Department of Business and Trade (DBT) to deliver ODA and non-ODA programming.

  1. UNFPA World Population Dashboard data 2023 ↩

  2. Green Climate Fund ↩

  3. Driving sustainability in Tajikistan and Central Asia ↩

  4. Worldometer ↩

  5. GDP growth Tajikistan ↩

  6. The poverty rate fell from 76% in 2009 to 22.5% in 2022. ↩

  7. IFAD ↩

  8. The inflow of workers’ remittances accounts for a third of the annual GDP ↩

  9. Tajikistan Overview: Development news, research, data ↩

  10. World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators 2021 ↩

  11. Corruption Perception Index 2022 ↩

  12. Tajikistan is ranked as ‘unfree’ in the Freedom House 2023 report. ↩

  13. The country ranked 153 of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index 2023 ↩

  14. Disaster risk profiles - Tajikistan (worldbank.org) ↩

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