UKHSA and ONS release latest Winter COVID-19 Infection Study Data
UKHSA and ONS have today published the latest data from the Winter Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Study, known as the Winter CIS.
Latest Update
The final data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study 2023/24, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), showed evidence of broadly stable COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland over the 2 weeks to 6 March. This is the last report for the 2023/24 survey season.
Over 21,000 study participants reported the results of LFD tests this week, which were taken whether or not they experienced symptoms. Examination of the data by ONS indicates that 0.6% of the population would test positive for COVID-19, compared to 0.8% in the last report (to 21 February).
After adjusting for both the accuracy of the LFD tests and the age demographics of the wider population, analysis by UKHSA estimates that the prevalence in the community is approximately 0.7%, or around one in every 143 people, compared to 0.9% (one in every 111 people) in the previous report.
The data shows there is little variation in COVID-19 rates across the UK, with prevalence in Scotland and all regions of England estimated to be between 0.6 and 0.8%.
Across all age groups the prevalence was broadly stable over the last 2 weeks, with the lowest prevalence found in those aged over 75 (0.3%).
The estimated infection hospitalisation risk (IHR) continues to be highest across older age groups. The IHR for England shows that the lowest hospitalisation risk with COVID-19 was found in those aged between 6 to 17 (0.025%) and highest in those aged 75 years and over (3.3%).
This puts the chance of going to hospital with COVID-19 at a 1 in 3,930 chance for 6 to 17-year-olds, compared to a 1 in 30 chance in for those aged over 75 years.
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA , said:
It is encouraging to see signs of broad stability in the rate of COVID-19 infection across the country. I am grateful to the volunteers who participated in this study and enable us to make these estimates.
While this is undoubtedly good news, it does not mean that we should become complacent. It is still important that we continue to take sensible precautions to prevent the virus from spreading. COVID-19 causes illness and hospitalisation, particularly in older and more vulnerable people.
Vaccination remains our best line of defence against COVID-19. UKHSA encourages those eligible for a free spring COVID-19 vaccine to take up the offer when invited.
When we have symptoms of a respiratory illness like COVID-19, we should do our best to limit our contact with other people, especially those who are more at risk. This will help to keep rates low and protect ourselves and those around us.
Previous update
29 February 2024
The latest data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), showed strong evidence of a decline in COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland over the 2 weeks to 21 February.
Over 27,000 study participants reported the results of LFD tests, which were taken whether or not they experienced symptoms. Examination of the data by ONS indicates that 0.8% of the population would test positive for COVID-19, compared to 1.6% in the last report (to 15 February).
After adjusting for both the accuracy of the LFD tests and the age demographics of the wider population, analysis by UKHSA estimates that the prevalence in the community is approximately 0.9%, or around one in every 111 people, compared to 1.5% (one in every 67 people) in the previous report.
The data shows that there is little variation in COVID-19 rates across the UK, with prevalence in Scotland and all regions of England estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.0%.
Across most age groups, there is strong evidence of a decline, with the lowest prevalence found in those aged over 75 (0.4%).
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:
It is encouraging to see that this week’s data shows strong evidence of a decline in COVID-19 prevalence across the UK.
While this is welcome, it is still important that we continue to take sensible precautions to prevent the virus from spreading. COVID-19 causes illness and hospitalisation, particularly in older and more vulnerable people.
When we have symptoms of a respiratory illness like COVID-19, we should do our best to limit our contact with other people, especially those who are more at risk. This will help to keep rates low and protect ourselves and those around us.
Previous update
15 February 2024
The latest data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), indicates that COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland has remained relatively stable over the 2 weeks to 7 February.
Over 26,000 study participants reported the results of LFD tests, which were taken whether or not they experienced symptoms. Examination of the data by ONS indicates that 1.6% of the population would test positive for COVID-19, compared to 1.4% in the last report (to 24 January).
After adjusting for both the accuracy of the LFD tests and the age demographics of the wider population, analysis by UKHSA estimates that the prevalence in the community as a whole is approximately 1.5%, or around one in every 67 people, compared to 2.0% (one in every 50 people) in the previous report. However, both of these prevalence estimates are within the study’s margin of error, meaning that the evidence for this apparent small decline is not strong.
The data shows that there is little variation in COVID-19 rates across the UK, with prevalence in Scotland and all regions of England estimated to be between 1.3 and 1.7%.
Across age groups, the lowest prevalence was found in those aged over 75 (1.2%), and highest in those aged between 35 and 44 (2.9%).
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA, said:
COVID-19 prevalence across the UK remains low, according to this latest data. However, some people – particularly those who are older or more clinically vulnerable - are still experiencing severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of COVID-19 infection.
When we have symptoms of a respiratory illness like COVID-19, it is still important to do our best to limit our contact with other people, especially those who are more at risk. This will help to keep rates low and protect ourselves and those around us.
Previous update
1 February 2024
The latest data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), suggests that COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland has remained steady over the 2 weeks to 24 January.
Approximately 26,000 volunteers reported the results of LFD tests, taken whether or not they were experiencing symptoms. Statistical examination of the data by ONS indicates that 1.4% of the household population would test positive for COVID-19, compared to 1.6% in the previous week.
Analysis by UKHSA suggests that, after adjusting for both the accuracy of the LFD tests and the demographics of the wider population, this indicates a prevalence in the community of 2.0%, or around one in every 50 people, compared to 2.3% (one in every 43 people) in the previous report.
COVID-19 remained static across all regions of England and Scotland. Prevalence was estimated to be highest in South West England (2.3%), and lowest in Yorkshire and the Humber (1.7%), though all regions are within the study’s margin of error.
Across age groups, the lowest rates were found in those aged over 75 (1.3%) and highest in those between 35 and 44 (2.8%).
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:
It is encouraging to see that this week’s data suggests that COVID-19 prevalence across the country has remained low and I am grateful to the volunteers who participate in this study and enable us to make these estimates.
While this is undoubtedly good news, it does not mean that we should become complacent. COVID-19 is still causing serious illness and hospitalisation, particularly in older and more vulnerable people. If you have symptoms of a respiratory illness like COVID-19, try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are more at risk.
18 January 2024
Winter COVID-19 Infection Study shows a continued decline in COVID-19 in England and Scotland.
The latest data from the Winter COVID-19 Infection Study, an epidemiological study run in partnership by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows a clear decline in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England and Scotland in the 2 weeks up to 10 January.
Analysis by UKHSA suggests that prevalence in the community is 2.3%, or around one in every 43 people. This represents a decrease in prevalence from 3.1% (one in every 32 people) in the previous report.
Positivity data from the ONS indicates that of the approximately 26,000 participants who reported LFD test results in the last reporting period, 1.9% tested positive for COVID-19, compared to 2.7% in the last report.
The most recent data shows a clear decline in prevalence in Scotland and most of the regions in England. This decline was also observed for the age groups between 18 to 74.
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:
This week’s data confirms the early signs of a decline in COVID-19 across the country that we saw in last week’s report. While this is welcome, it is important to recognise that this does not mean that the risk of becoming ill with COVID-19 has gone away. In previous years, we have sometimes seen a decline in early January followed by an increase over the next few weeks, so it remains important that we continue to do what we can to reduce transmission.
Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 can still receive a seasonal vaccination until the end of this month, and we urge anyone eligible who has not already done so to come forward. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.
If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.
11 January 2024
The latest data from the Winter CIS, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows early signs that COVID-19 prevalence in England and Scotland has begun to decrease. Estimated prevalence fell to 3.1% (one in 32 people) across England and Scotland in the 2 weeks to 3 January, down from 4.2% (one in 24 people) in the 2 weeks to 13 December.
However, it is not unexpected for surveillance data to show a temporary change in the transmission rates of respiratory infections over the Christmas period. UKHSA and the ONS will continue to monitor the data closely to confirm whether this drop in prevalence will be sustained.
The Winter CIS was launched jointly by UKHSA and ONS in November 2023 to deliver real-time prevalence and positivity data to aid the surveillance of COVID-19 in the community and help understand the winter pressures on the NHS.
There are early signs of a fall in prevalence in all regions of England and in Scotland, with the largest decline being observed in London.
Prevalence was assessed to be highest among those aged 18 to 44 years, while the lowest rates were found in those aged under 18 years.
Positivity data among the sample cohort, reported by ONS also indicated early signs of a decrease in the rate of COVID-19.
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance at UKHSA said:
It is encouraging to see the first signs of a potential downturn in the rate of COVID-19 infection across the country. However, we should not assume that COVID-19 prevalence will rapidly drop to low levels. It is not unusual to see a temporary change in the transmission rates of respiratory infections over the Christmas period, when schools and workplaces are closed.
It is still as important as ever that we continue to take sensible precautions to protect ourselves and those around us. If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.
Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 can still come forward for their seasonal vaccination until 31 January 2024. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.
UKHSA and ONS will release the next set of Winter CIS results on 18 January and then revert to a fortnightly publication schedule thereafter.
There’s more information on vaccines and data estimates.
21 December 2023
The Winter CIS was launched jointly by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in November 2023 to deliver real-time prevalence and positivity data to aid the surveillance of COVID-19 in the community and help understand the winter pressures on the NHS.
The study collects data through self-reported lateral flow device (LFD) results and questionnaire responses from approximately 150,000 participants across England and Scotland, providing up to 30,000 LFD test results per week.
The latest report estimates a prevalence of 4.2% across the total population in England and Scotland. This means that approximately 1 in every 24 people could test positive for COVID-19 infection at the current time.
Prevalence rates were highest in people aged 18 to 44 years, and the highest prevalence regionally was found in London.
UKHSA is urging all those eligible to come forward for a seasonal COVID-19 vaccine before the window closes on 31 January 2024.
You are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine if you are:
- aged 65 years or over (by 31 March 2024)
- aged 6 months to 64 years and are at increased risk
- living in a care home for older adults
- a frontline health or social care worker
- aged 16 to 64 years and are a carer
- aged 12 to 64 years and live with someone with a weakened immune system
Professor Steven Riley, Director General for Data and Surveillance, UKHSA said:
At this time of year, the cold weather, shorter days and increased socialising mean that the potential for transmission of respiratory viruses like COVID-19 is particularly high. This, as well as the possible impact of new variants, means it’s not unexpected to see cases increasing.
If you are showing symptoms of COVID-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.
It’s important that those people who are most at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of COVID-19 come forward for their seasonal vaccination to make sure they have the best possible protection this winter. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.
After Christmas, UKHSA and ONS will release the next set of Winter CIS results on 11 January. This will be followed by another report on 18 January and will revert to fortnightly thereafter.
More information
Although the main vaccine delivery programme has now ceased and you can no longer book a seasonal COVID-19 vaccine online or by calling NHS 119, you may still be able to book a COVID-19 vaccine with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a COVID-19 vaccination walk-in site.
The last date you will be able to get your seasonal COVID-19 vaccine is 31 January 2024.
UKHSA estimates are based on the same underlying data as the positivity numbers reported by ONS. UKHSA’s estimates of prevalence account for the known sensitivity of the LFD assay and the composition of the study cohort.
Last updated 14 March 2024 + show all updates
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