Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, end of year summary, 2021

Question 1

Key results

Accepted Answer

12,727 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office in 2021, representing a 20% increase compared to the preceding year (10,601)
the number of referrals received this year is the highest since the NRM began in 2009 (previously 10,611 in 2019)
77% (9,790) were male and 23% (2,923) were female
58% (7,434) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only and 31% (3,883) claimed exploitation overseas only
a higher proportion of referrals claimed exploitation overseas only in 2021 (31%) than in 2020 (26%)
50% (6,411) of referrals were for potential victims who claimed exploitation as adults and 43% (5,468) claimed exploitation as children
for adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most reported (33%; 2,141), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (49%; 2,689)
the most common nationalities referred this year were UK, Albanian and Vietnamese
12,665 reasonable grounds and 2,866 conclusive grounds decisions were made this year. Of these, 90% of reasonable grounds and 91% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
the Home Office received 3,190 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, a 47% increase from 2020

Figure 1: Number of NRM referrals

Source: Single Competent Authority (SCA) and Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
Note(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

Question 2

1.  Introduction

Accepted Answer

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK that come to the attention of authorised ‘First Responder’ organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised ‘First Responder’ organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children under the age of 18 need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

When referred to the NRM, the Home Office makes a ‘reasonable grounds’ decision on whether an individual could be a victim of modern slavery. Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support (including accommodation, subsistence, legal aid and counselling) pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children.

Currently, adults with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to at least a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive nine days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created 8 November 2021. Both Competent Authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both Competent Authorities.

On 14 June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme that will test alternative models of decision making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. Decisions made by the ten pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. See further information regarding the pilots.

Question 3

2.  National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

Accepted Answer

2.1 Number of referrals by age group

In 2021, the NRM received 12,727 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 20% increase in referrals compared to the preceding year (10,601). This year saw the highest number of referrals since the NRM began.

Of all referrals this year, 50% (6,411) were for potential victims who claimed exploitation as adults (compared to 48% in the preceding year), whilst 43% (5,468) claimed exploitation as children (Figure 2). The age group at exploitation was unknown in 7% of cases (848).

Figure 2: Number of NRM referrals by age group of exploitation

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.

2.2 Location of exploitation

Overall, 58% (7,434) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only, compared to 63% in the last year, whilst 31% (3,883) claimed exploitation overseas only (Figure 3; data table 2). After decreasing throughout 2020, referrals for those claiming exploitation overseas now remain high, this is likely due to increased travel into the UK as COVID-19 travel restrictions have eased.

Figure 3: Number of NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

2.3 Referrals by gender and exploitation type

Overall, of the 12,727 potential victims referred in this year, 77% (9,790) were male and 23% (2,923) were female. These proportions are similar to recent years, although male potential victims have formed an increasing proportion of NRM referrals over the years.

For adult potential victims, 75% (4,812) were male and 25% (1,594) were female; whilst for child potential victims, 79% (4,314) were male and 21% (1,145) were female.

Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age group

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): First responders can provide data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.

Overall, potential victims were mostly referred for criminal exploitation only. Referrals for criminal exploitation only accounted for 33% (4,155) of all referrals. An additional 15% (1,945) of referrals stated potential victims had been referred for criminal exploitation and other exploitation types.

For adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (33%; 2,141), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (49%; 2,689). See further information on types of exploitation.

Throughout 2020, a rapid increase in the identification of ‘county lines’ cases partially drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category. In 2021, cases flagged as county lines have remained at this high level, averaging over 500 referrals a quarter. ‘County lines’ is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

In 2021, 2,053 county lines referrals were flagged, a 23% increase from last year. County lines referrals accounted for 16% of all referrals received in the year (data table 14). The majority (76%; 1,551) of these referrals were for male children.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age group at exploitation and gender

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to quarter 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

2.4 Referrals by nationality

The most common nationality referred was UK nationals, which accounted for 31% (3,952) of all potential victims (compared to 34% in 2020). The second most referred nationality was Albanian (20%; 2,511) and the third was Vietnamese (8%; 991). A large proportion (75%; 2,981) of UK nationals were child potential victims, whilst for Albanian nationals, most (81%; 2,046) were adult potential victims. For Vietnamese nationals, 64% (635) were adults and 27% (269) were child potential victims (Figure 6). Referrals for Albanian nationals increased as a percentage of all referrals this year, now accounting for 20% of all referrals, compared to 15% in 2020. There was also a notable increase in referrals for Eritrean nationals this year (712, 6%), compared to 359 (3%) in 2020.

Please note, a change to data recording from 1 October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age group at exploitation

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

2.5 Referrals by location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the relevant Competent Authority determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation, based on the information provided on the referral form, and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous years, most (90%; 11,391) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 3% (419) to Police Scotland, 4% (479) to Welsh police forces and 3% (363) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 2).

2.6 First responders

In 2021, 37% (4,674) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 32% in the previous year. Of these referrals, 37% (1,719) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement, compared to 44% in the previous year, whilst a large proportion came from UK Visas and Immigration (59%; 2,755) (Figure 7 and data table 10). Police forces accounted for 30% (3,843) of NRM referrals in 2021 (compared to 32% in the previous year). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 8% (979) of referrals. Local authorities accounted for 25% (3,229) of referrals, mostly for child potential victims.

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified NGOs, police forces and specified government agencies. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.

Question 4

3.  National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

Accepted Answer

3.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

The Competent Authorities issued 12,665 reasonable grounds decisions in 2021. Of these decisions, 90% (11,387) were positive and 10% (1,278) were negative. The proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 88% for adult and 92% for child potential victims; these proportions have fallen slightly from 90% and 95% last year (data table 15). However, the proportion of positive decisions has remained relatively similar in recent years, with around nine out of every ten referrals receiving a positive decision.

Figure 8: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Based on the year in which the Competent Authority issued their decision.

3.2 Conclusive grounds decisions

In 2021, the Competent Authorities issued 2,866 conclusive grounds decisions, compared to 3,423 in the previous year. Of the decisions issued this year, 91% (2,609) were positive and 9% (257) were negative; this is a slight increase from last year when 90% of decisions were positive. The proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 86% for adult and 96% for child potential victims (data table 16). The decrease in the number of decisions made in 2021 is due to resource pressures within the SCA and a subsequent reduction in capacity as the SCA onboards and trains many new staff.

Figure 9: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA and IECA
Note(s): Based on the year in which the Competent Authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made in this year was 448 days, compared to 338 days in 2020. It is important to note that the decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision from the Competent Authorities in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Some cases that receive decisions in this period may have taken longer to reach a decision than those in previous quarters (data table 17).

3.3 Current decision status

As of 7 January 2022, the majority (80%; 10,214) of referrals made in 2021 are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, having received a positive reasonable grounds decision. This is a result of the current time taken to make conclusive grounds decisions (data table 18). Of the remaining referrals made in 2021, 10% (1,303) received a negative decision (1,269 at reasonable grounds and 34 at conclusive grounds stage), whilst 5% received a positive conclusive grounds decision.

3.4 Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders do not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

In 2021, the Home Office received 3,190 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (Figure 10), compared to 2,175 in 2020. Of these:

the most commonly referred nationalities were Albanian (435; 14%), Eritrean (382; 12%) and UK (365; 11%) (data table 20). Eritrean nationals saw a notable increase in DtN reports this year, accounting for 12% of reports, up from 6% in 2020, whereas, Romanian nationals who made 15% of reports in 2020, accounted for only 10% in 2021
similarly to 2020, the most commonly referred exploitation types were labour (1,215; 38%), sexual (508; 16%) and criminal (487; 15%) (data table 21)
in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office ¬- UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (1,431; 45%), Home Office - UK Border Force UKBF (254; 8%) and Metropolitan Police Service (152; 5%) (data table 22).

Figure 10: Number of Duty to Notify referrals

Source: SCA
Note(s): Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

Question 5

4.  Further information

Accepted Answer

Quality information

All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

It is important to note that the statistics presented in this publication relate to the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM or via the DtN process.

These statistics are based on the situation as of 7 January 2022 when an extract was taken from the live management information system. The figures may differ from previous or future reports as new information comes to light and cases update accordingly.

NRM statistics were previously published by the National Crime Agency (NCA) prior to transfer of NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, these data are now designated as official statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Data tables for further analysis can be found online alongside this bulletin.

This statistical bulletin is produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Changes to data table formatting

Several of the data tables published alongside this bulletin have been reformatted to reduce the number of tables whilst still providing the same data. Table 7 (Number of NRM referrals by UK country of responsible police force and age group) which was provided in previous updates has been removed as this information is available in table 2. Tables 16-26 provided in previous updates breaking down referrals received by police forces from England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation have been removed. This information is now available in tables 3-8. The information previously provided in tables 11-13 breaking down referrals for each first responder is now provided in tables 10-12.

Changes to recording of exploitation types

Prior to 1 October 2019, potential victims of modern slavery were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into five distinct categories: labour, sexual, domestic servitude, organ harvesting or unknown exploitation. Following changes to the way NRM data are collected, recording of exploitation types has changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. As a result, for referrals received from 1 October 2019, criminal exploitation is separate to labour exploitation. In addition, potential victims can also be recorded as experiencing multiple exploitation types, so apply caution when comparing exploitation type statistics from quarter 4 2019 with previous quarters, as the primary exploitation type is unknown. Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a distinct category on the online form that first responders use when submitting a referral; instead, they can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.

Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force:

Police force data provided in associated reference tables are based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force. Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. This will be reflected in the updated statistics. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

National Referral Mechanism statistics

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Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, end of year summary, 2021

Key results

1. Introduction