National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies chapter 1: main types of civil emergency
Published 27 March 2015
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Previous: National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies: introduction
What is a civil emergency?
The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (the act) describes an emergency as:
- an event or situation which threatens serious damage to human welfare in a place in the United Kingdom
- an event or situation which threatens serious damage to the environment of a place in the United Kingdom
- war, or terrorism, which threatens serious damage to the security of the United Kingdom
What is a risk of civil emergency?
Every 2 years the UK government produces a classified assessment of the risks of civil emergencies facing people in the UK — the National Risk Assessment (NRA). In the NRA and National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (NRR), how serious the risk of an emergency is depends on:
- the likelihood of it happening over the next 5 years
- the consequences or impacts that people will feel if the emergency happens
When identifying risks for the NRA and NRR, a ‘reasonable worst case’ is chosen which represents a challenging manifestation of the scenario after highly implausible scenarios are excluded.
The NRR risk matrices
Figures 1 and 2 represent the key risks of civil emergencies in the 2014 NRA. These are updated within each edition of the NRR to ensure that changes to the assessment of risks in terms of impact, plausibility and likelihood are correctly captured. The assessment of risks is continuous and thus the positioning of risks within the NRR risk matrices remains fluid and subject to change.
Figure 1: Risks of terrorist and other malicious attacks
Graph shows relative plausibility of terrorist and other malicious attacks occurring in the next five years on x axis and the overall relative impact score on y axis. The risk of cyber attacks: infrastructure happening, is medium low with and impact score of 3. The risk of catastrophic terrorist attacks is medium low with an impact score of 5. Both risks of terrorist attacks on infrastructure and smaller-scale CBR terrorist attacks have an impact score of 3. The risk of terrorist attacks on crowded places is medium high with an impact score of 3. The risk of cyber attacks: data confidentiality is high with an impact score of 1. Lastly, the risk of terrorist attacks on transport systems is high with an impact score of 3.
Figure 2: Other risks
Graph shows relative likelihood of other risks occurring in the next five years on x axis and the overall relative impact score on y axis. The risk of public disorder and severe wilderfires happening is between 1 in 2,00 and 1 in 200 with an impact score of 2. The risk of major transport accidents and major industrial accidents happening is between 1 in 2,00 and 1 in 200 with an impact score of 3. The risk of disruptive industrial action happening is between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 with an impact score of 1. The risk of animal diseases and drought happening is between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 with an impact score of 2. The risk of effusive volcanic eruption, emerging infectious diseases and inland flooding happening is between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 with an impact score of 3. The risk of coastal flooding and widespread electricity failure happening is between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 with an impact score of 4. The risk of explosive volcanic eruption and storms and gales happening is between 1 in 20 and 1 in 2 with an impact score of 2. The risk of severe space weather, low temperatures and heavy snow, heatwaves and poor air quality events happening is between 1 in 20 and 1 in 2 with an impact score of 3. Lastly the risk of pandemic influenza happening is between 1 in 20 and 1 in 2 with an impact score of 5.
Risks: more information
- Natural hazards
- Human diseases
- Flooding
- Poor air quality events
- Volcanic hazards
- Severe space weather
- Severe weather
- Severe wildfires
- Animal diseases
- Major accidents
- Widespread electricity failure
- Major transport accidents
- Disruptive industrial action
- Widespread public disorder
- An introduction to terrorist and other malicious attacks
- Terrorist attacks on crowded places
- Terrorist attacks on infrastructure
- Terrorist attacks on transport systems
- Unconventional terrorist attacks
- Cyber security
The highest priority risks
The following, as reflected within the risk matrices, are considered by the government to be the highest priority risks.
Pandemic influenza
This continues to represent the most significant civil emergency risk. The outbreak of H1N1 influenza in 2009 (‘swine flu’) did not match the severity of the scenario that we planned for and is not necessarily indicative of future pandemic influenzas. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic does not change the risk of another pandemic emerging (such as an H5N1 (‘avian flu’) pandemic) or mean that the severity of any future pandemics will be the same as the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. For further details see chapter 2 of the NRR.
Coastal flooding
The risk is of an event similar in consequence to the 1953 east coast flooding emergency caused by a combination of high tides, a major tidal surge and onshore gale force winds. The consequences of the storm surge in December 2013 were less serious even though sea levels were higher than in 1953. Our assessment is that the likelihood of such severe consequences as in 1953 is lower now due to the investment made in coastal flood defences and flood warnings. For further details see chapter 2 of the NRR.
Widespread electricity failure
Previously a risk grouped within the major industrial accidents risk category, the risk of widespread electricity failure has been reassessed in light of an enhanced understanding of the risk’s impacts. As a result, this is now assessed to be very high, and thus a priority risk. Although the UK has never before suffered a national loss of electricity, and this does not represent an increase in likelihood, the consequences of such an event could be significant. For further details see chapter 2 of the NRR.
Catastrophic terrorist attacks
This type of attack causes long term mass impacts of a magnitude over and above conventional terrorist attacks such as those targeting crowded places or transport systems. Catastrophic terrorist attacks are assessed to be less likely than conventional terrorist attacks. Although catastrophic terrorist attacks are unlikely they cannot be ruled out. The likelihood of terrorists obtaining effective mass impact biological agents or a functioning nuclear device remains low but not negligible, and the impacts are potentially very serious. For further details on unconventional terrorist attacks see chapter 2 of the NRR.
Newly assessed risks
Poor air quality events
Air pollution harms the environment and can also lead to significant effects on health, particularly for those who suffer from respiratory or cardio-vascular conditions. Ozone and fine solid particles and liquid droplets suspended within the air are the 2 main causes of poor air quality events and are more likely to occur during heat waves. This was experienced in 2003, 2006 and 2011, when high temperatures and light winds helped to create the necessary conditions. Poor air quality may also occur at other times of the year, particularly in longer periods of settled weather, where high pressure dominates. For further details see chapter 2 of the NRR.
Major transport accidents and major industrial accidents
There have been new risks added to the major transport accidents and major industrial accidents risk categories. In light of changes to the former risk category, the group’s position has been updated within the matrices.
Updates to existing risks
With each assessment cycle, it is normal for changes to occur in the assessments of individual risks, in view of additional research or better understanding of a particular risk. Assessments for risks within the 2014 NRR remain broadly the same as in the 2013 edition, but there have been a few changes. Risk ratings, including those for widespread electricity failure, effusive volcanic eruptions, severe wildfires and disruptive industrial action have changed this year to reflect work undertaken to better understand the risks. The location of the widespread electricity failure and widespread public disorder risk within the NRR matrices has been updated to better reflect its current position within the NRA matrix.
Emerging and longer-term issues
Only emergency events that are assessed to have a 1 in 20,000 chance or greater of happening within a 5 year period, and that will require intervention by the UK government or a devolved administration, are included within the NRA and NRR. Longer-term vulnerabilities or broader issues that have the potential to negatively impact on society, but which are not confined to single events (eg climate change or organised crime), are not included and do not feature within the risk matrices. Instead, the effects of these are considered as part of the assessment of existing risks. Where relevant, these are mentioned within the risk summaries set out in chapter 2, where their effects on the particular emergency event are made clear.
A particularly serious longer-term issue of this kind is that of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). While not a risk identified and assessed within the NRR, it represents a significant longer- term challenge, as the following section makes clear.
Antimicrobial resistance
An increasingly serious issue is the development and spread of AMR, which occurs when drugs are no longer effective in treating infections caused by micro-organisms. Without effective antibiotics, even minor surgery and routine operations could become high-risk procedures, leading to increased duration of illness and ultimately premature mortality. Much of modern medicine (for example, organ transplantation, bowel surgery and some cancer treatments) may become unsafe due to the risk of infection. In addition, influenza pandemics would become more serious without effective treatments.
The numbers of infections complicated by AMR are expected to increase markedly over the next 20 years. If a widespread outbreak were to occur, we could expect around 200,000 people to be affected by a bacterial blood infection that could not be treated effectively with existing drugs. Around 80,000 of these people might die. High numbers of deaths could also be expected from other forms of antimicrobial resistant infection.
AMR is a global problem and the UK government, in conjunction with the devolved administrations, is leading work with international partners to secure support for concerted action at a global level. Coordinated international action is needed to tackle AMR as a priority issue through the World Health Organization (WHO) and other UN bodies.
The Department of Health, the NHS, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Veterinary Medicines Directorate are working together with other partners to lead the implementation of the UK 5 year antimicrobial resistance strategy, published in September 2013. This work is overseen by a cross-government high-level steering group comprising government departments and agencies and the devolved administrations. In June 2014 it published the measures which are being used to assess the impact of actions being taken across the UK to reduce the spread of AMR and improve antibiotic prescribing. The high-level steering group’s progress report and implementation plan was published on 11 December 2014.
In addition, in July 2014, the Prime Minister commissioned a review of AMR. The review, chaired by Jim O’Neil, is independent of government and is international in focus. It will explore how the development of new antibiotics can be stimulated and will also examine how best to encourage innovative thinking and research in order to change methods for treating infectious diseases. The review has already produced 2 reports. The first of these — Antimicrobial resistance: Tackling a crisis for the health and wealth of nations (PDF, 2MB) — appeared in December. It quantifies the likely global economic burden of AMR between now and 2050. The second — Tackling a global health crisis: initial steps (PDF, 1MB) — was published on 5 February. It describes steps the review believes could and should be taken now in the international effort to tackle AMR. Further reports are expected to be published during 2015. By the summer of 2016, the review will recommend a set of actions to be agreed on at an international level in order to deal with the challenge of AMR.
Further information and resources
Next: National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies chapter 2: risk summaries