Official Statistics

Irregular migration to the UK, year ending December 2022

Published 23 February 2023

This is not the latest release. View latest release.

Introduction

This report provides an overview of irregular migrants who come to the UK. This includes those arriving on a small boat across the English Channel (a ‘small boat arrival’), a phenomenon that was rare prior to 2019 but has since increased notably in number.

The statistics presented here relate to the number of people recorded being detected on, or shortly after, arrival to the UK on various routes (flow). They do not provide an indication of the total number of people currently in the UK who have entered the UK via irregular routes.

It is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population currently resident in the UK, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly. A small boat is only one of a number of irregular methods by which a person may reach the UK border and seek entry without permission. This report provides additional statistics on other irregular modes of entry but not all irregular entries will be recorded and we are not able to provide an estimate for the entirety of the irregular migrant population. Some people may enter the UK on regular routes and their status subsequently become irregular (for example if they overstay their visa). Others may enter through a clandestine method and remain undetected or will be detected some time after their arrival. Additionally, other migrants may enter irregularly but gain ‘regular’ status (for example following an application for asylum).

Other migrants may seek to enter the UK without valid permission but be prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, at the juxtaposed controls in France and Belgium, or further afield, if prevented from travelling). Prevented attempts are not counted in this report. Any counts of attempted entries will relate to a number of recorded detections, which may include multiple attempts by the same individual, and therefore will not relate to numbers of persons or indicate an arrival to the UK.

Additional information is provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section.

Irregular arrivals

Data in this section is derived from Home Office Management Information. The data is not designed for statistical purposes; further information is found in the ‘About the statistics’ section.

It is not possible to directly compare recorded detections on different methods of entry or add these together to provide a full picture of how many migrants entered the UK without permission. However, some broad trends can be observed.

As shown in Figure 1, while there was an initial increase in small boats detections in 2019, recorded detections on other routes remained relatively stable. Small boat arrivals increased further in 2020 as detections on other routes declined, likely in part due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic making other methods of entry such as air or ferry less viable. However, in 2021 and 2022, there was a substantial increase in the numbers of small boat arrivals. This occurred despite the other entry methods becoming more viable as global COVID-19 restrictions eased.

Figure 1: Detections at the UK border, by method of entry^1,2,3, 2018 to 2022

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The chart does not indicate the total number of arrivals, nor is it intended to compare the different modes of arrivals. Different datasets have different levels of coverage which means they are not necessarily comparable. Further details and definitions of each category are provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section.
2. The data includes the number of people recorded as attempting to enter the UK, having been detected on, or within 72 hours of, arrival to the UK. It does not include those prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, those prevented from boarding transportation at their port of embarkation or where their concealment in a vehicle has been detected prior to arrival in the UK).
3. 2022 data on inadequately documented air arrivals is for January to November 2022 only. Data for December 2022 was unavailable at the time of data extraction.

How many migrants were detected arriving in the UK via small boats?

1. Number of people arriving by small boat

Statistics on small boats include individuals who were detected on arrival to the UK, detected in the Channel and subsequently brought to the UK, and those encountered in the UK who were suspected of having arrived on a small boat. They do not include any persons who arrived on larger vessels (such as on a ferry), those prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France, or those who arrived in the UK undetected (see the ‘About the statistics’ section for more details).

There were 45,755 people detected arriving by small boats in 2022. 51% of those people arrived in the 3 months of August, September and October. The month of August 2022 saw the highest number of small boat arrivals of any month since data has been collected (8,631). The total in 2022 was 60% higher than in 2021 (28,526; see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boats per month, January 2018 to December 2022

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

There is a seasonal effect on small boat arrivals due to weather conditions. Crossings are generally higher in warmer months. However, in 2021 the number of small boat arrivals peaked in November.

2. Number of boats and people per boat

1,109 small boats were detected arriving in the UK in 2022, only slightly more than the 1,034 in 2021, as shown in Figure 3. However, the number of people arriving increased more substantially.

Figure 3: Number of small boats and average number of people per boat detected arriving in the UK, January 2018 to December 2022

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

In 2022, there was an average of 41 people per small boat. This has increased compared to 2021, when there was an average of 28 people per small boat and is much higher than 2020 (13 people per small boat), 2019 (11 people) and 2018 (7 people).

Almost half (47%) of the small boats detected arriving in 2022 arrived in August, September and October (518), with an average of 45 people per small boat in these 3 months.

In 2022, there was at least one small boat recorded arriving on 2 out of every 5 days (an arrival on 162 of the 365 days). This was similar to the rate in 2021 (154 of the 365 days) but higher than the rate in 2020 (130 of the 366 days), and the one every 5 days in 2019 (81 of the 365 days) and less than one arrival every 10 days in 2018 (29 of the 365 days).

3. Nationalities and demographics of arrivals

Figures (including percentages) in this section exclude those where the nationality and demographic data has not yet been added to the electronic record (labelled as ‘Not currently recorded’ in the data tables).

Overall, males represented 87% of small boat arrivals in 2022. This proportion is similar to the proportion of males each year from 2018 to 2021.

Since January 2018, 76% of arrivals have been adult males aged 18 and over. Around one sixth (16%) have been children aged 17 and under (see table Irr_02c).

Since January 2018, Iranians have comprised 22% of all small boat arrivals. They represented the majority of small boat arrivals in 2018 (80%) and 2019 (66%). However, a greater mix of nationalities have been detected making the crossing since 2020 (see table Irr_02b). Albanian and Afghan nationals became noticeably more common in 2022.

In 2022, almost half of small boat arrivals were from these 2 nationalities - Albanians (28%) and Afghans (20%), as shown in Figure 4. Albanians were more prominent from July to September 2022, whereas Afghans became more prominent from October to December 2022.

In July to September 2022, 45% of small boat arrivals were Albanian (9,037).

However, in October to December 2022, only 9% of small boat arrivals were Albanian (1,099). Afghans were the top nationality for small boat arrivals in these 3 months, 33% of arrivals (3,834).

Figure 4: Top nationalities arriving via small boats, as a percentage (%) of total small boat arrivals^1,2, 2018 to 2022

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The top nationalities are those with the highest number of small boat arrivals since January 2018.
2. Excludes arrivals where information on nationality was not recorded in the dataset.

Prior to May 2022, Albanians were not commonly detected on small boats. Despite this, they were the top small boat nationality in 2022 overall, with 12,301 arrivals (95% of whom arrived between May and October). This compares with only 815 Albanians detected in 2021. There were fewer Albanian arrivals towards the end of 2022 (166 arrivals in November and 28 in December).

The number of Afghans arriving on small boats has been increasing since summer 2021. There were 8,633 arrivals in 2022 (71% of whom arrived between August and December). This compares with 1,437 Afghan arrivals in 2021, 494 in 2020, 69 in 2019 and 3 in 2018.

4. Asylum claims from small boat arrivals

The majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum. In 2022, 90% (40,302 of 44,666 arrivals) claimed asylum or were recorded as a dependant on an asylum application. However, small boat arrivals account for less than half (45%) of the total number of people claiming asylum in the UK in 2022.

Most asylum claims from small boat arrivals are still awaiting a decision; more recent periods will naturally have a higher proportion of asylum applications awaiting a decision, as less time has passed to allow for applications to be processed. 97% (34,793) of small boat asylum applications in the latest year, or 83% (56,883) of all small boat asylum applications since 2018, are awaiting a decision.

Table 1: Small boat arrivals applying for asylum and initial decision outcomes on their applications, 2018 to 2022^1,2,3

	Total to date (2018 to 2022)	2022
Small boat arrivals	83,236	44,666
Asylum applicants (people)	76,134	40,302
Of which, applications (main applicants only)	68,693	35,836
Applications awaiting a decision	56,883	34,793
Applications withdrawn	1,622	703
Applications which received an initial decision (% of applications)	10,188 (15%)	340 (<1%)
of which:
granted refugee status or other leave (grant rate)	6,242 (61%)	210 (62%)
refused	952	87
not considered on third country grounds	2,994	43

Notes:

1. Applications awaiting a decision, withdrawn, and which received a decision are a count of applications, not people (meaning they exclude dependants).
2. Applications granted includes grants of refugee status, humanitarian protection and other forms of leave.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision.

Of those small boat arrivals who have received an initial decision (10,188) since 2018:

• 61% (6,242) were granted refugee status or another type of leave
• 9% (952) were refused, for reasons such as their asylum claim being ‘clearly unfounded’, or the claimant not meeting the requirements for refugee status or other forms of leave
• 29% (2,994) of applications were not considered on third country grounds – this means that the UK will not consider the asylum claim (and will instead seek the person’s removal to a safe third country), because the applicant was present or had a connection to a safe third country where they could reasonably have been expected to claim asylum before reaching the UK

The prevalence of asylum claims from small boat arrivals, and the outcomes of those claims, vary across nationalities.

Albanians were the top small boat arriving nationality applying for asylum in 2022, making up 27% of total small boat arrivals applying for asylum over the year. Of the 12,561 Albanian small boat arrivals in 2022, 85% applied for asylum (10,699 people, relating to 9,573 applications). Of these applications, 469 were withdrawn (5%) and 68 have received an initial decision (<1%), with the following outcomes:

• 24% (16) were not considered on third country grounds
• 76% (52) were refused for other reasons
• none were granted refugee status or another type of leave

The outcomes for Albanian nationals arriving on small boats may differ markedly from those for Albanians whose asylum cases are being decided at present. This is likely due to the different situation and demographics of those cases – for example, in 2022 Albanian small boat arrivals consist largely of men (77% are adult males aged 18 and over), whereas all initial decisions made on Albanian asylum applications will include more families and females (65% of initial decisions related to females or children aged 17 and under), including some who may have been victims of modern slavery (see section 5 below).

Afghans were the second highest small boat arriving nationality applying for asylum in 2022, making up 20% of total small boat arrivals applying for asylum over the year. Of the 8,756 Afghan small boat arrivals in 2022, 92% applied for asylum (8,022 people, relating to 7,623 applications). Of these applications, 64 were withdrawn (<1%) and 107 have received an initial decision (1%), with the following outcomes:

• 2% (2) were not considered on third country grounds
• 1% (1) were refused for other reasons
• 97% (104) were granted refugee status or another type of leave

Total small boat arrivals in this section on asylum claims may will differ slightly from the total small boat arrivals cited elsewhere in this publication due to differences in the dates on which data was extracted.

For more details on people applying for asylum, see the ‘How many people do we grant protection to?’ chapter of the Immigration System Statistics quarterly release.

5. Potential victims of modern slavery

Modern slavery includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM). Statistics on modern slavery referrals show the overall number of NRM referrals has been increasing. For more information on NRM referrals, see the ‘About the statistics’ section.

5.1 Small boat arrivals with modern slavery referrals

A small proportion of small boat arrivals are referred into the NRM as potential victims of modern slavery. Of the 83,236 people that arrived in the UK on small boats between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2022, 7% (6,210 people) were referred to the NRM. Most of these individuals (5,897 or 95%) also had an asylum claim lodged.

NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival into the UK. NRM referrals may be triggered by, or occur after, other immigration events (such as detention in preparation for return). A Home Office report on modern slavery referrals from immigration detention and prisons (July 2021) shows that the prevalence of NRM referrals from within detention has increased in recent years, especially amongst those detained for third country removal (applicable to small boat arrivals who have travelled via a safe third country) – with over half of people detained for third-country return in the second half of 2020 being referred to the NRM while in detention.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

5.2 Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds, and conclusive grounds.

A positive reasonable grounds decision means the decision-maker believes, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Table 2 shows that most small boat arrivals with NRM referrals have received a reasonable grounds decision, but not yet received a conclusive grounds decision. This is because most reasonable grounds decisions are issued within 5 days of the referral, but conclusive grounds decisions can take considerably longer. More recent periods will naturally have a higher proportion awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, as less time has passed to allow for a decision to be made. 76% (2,047) of small boat NRM referrals in the latest year, or 70% (4,373) of all small boat NRM referrals since 2018, are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision.

As shown in table 2, the majority (85%) of reasonable grounds decisions for small boat arrivals since 2018 have been positive. Of the 505 conclusive grounds decisions issued, 85% were positive.

Table 2: Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals, 2018 to December 2022^1,2,3,4

	Total to date (2018 to December 2022)	2022
Small boat arrivals	83,236	44,666
Arrivals with NRM referrals	6,210	2,691
Reasonable grounds (RG) decisions	5,767	2,536
Positive (%)	4,878 (85%)	2,150 (85%)
Negative (%)	889 (15%)	386 (15%)
Awaiting RG decision	120	87
Conclusive grounds (CG) decisions	505	103
Positive (%)	427 (85%)	72 (70%)
Negative (%)	78 (15%)	31 (30%)
Awaiting CG decision	4,373	2,047
Referrals withdrawn / closed	308	63
Awaiting reconsideration	15	5

Notes:

1. The time periods relate to the date of the small boat arrival, not the date of NRM referral or decision. NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival into the UK. The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time as people have more time to be identified and referred into the NRM.
2. Individuals will be counted in multiple groups shown in the table. For example, those who are awaiting, or have received, a conclusive grounds decision will have previously received a positive reasonable grounds decision.
3. Referrals withdrawn / closed includes some cases where contact with the individual has been lost; these may be reopened if the individual makes contact in future.
4. Cases awaiting reconsideration includes both those awaiting a new reasonable grounds decision and those awaiting a new conclusive grounds decision.

5.3 How do NRM referral rates change for different small boats cohorts?

The number of people with an NRM referral may vary within different cohorts of small boat arrivals. For example, table 3 shows that for small boat arrivals with a refused asylum application one quarter (25%) were referred to the NRM, compared to only 11% of those who had been granted asylum following their claim.

Please note these NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the small boat arrival went through the asylum process. Additionally, these figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

Table 3: Small boat NRM referral rate for those with asylum claims, 2018 to 2022^1,2,3,4,5

Asylum case outcome	Total asylum initial decisions	Of which, cases with an NRM referral	NRM referral rate
Grants of Protection and Other leave	6,242	678	11%
Refused	3,946	984	25%
Total initial decisions	10,188	1,662	16%
Grant rate	61%	41%

Notes:

1. Includes main applicants only.
2. The small boat NRM referral rate is the percentage of small boat arrivals who received an NRM referral.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision.
4. NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the small boat arrival went through the asylum process.
5. Figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

The small boat modern NRM referral rate varies for different nationalities. Table 4 shows that over the 5 years 2018 to 2022 the rate was 4% for Iranian small boat arrivals (726 of 17,912 arrivals), but 23% for Sudanese arrivals (872 of 3,763 arrivals) and 32% for Vietnamese small boat arrivals, meaning almost one third of Vietnamese small boat arrivals were referred to the NRM (653 of 2,030 arrivals).

Table 4: Small boat NRM referral rate, for top 10 nationalities and total, 2018 to 2022

Nationality	Small boat arrivals	Small boat NRM referrals	Small boat NRM referral rate
Iran (Islamic Republic)	17,912	726	4%
Albania	13,458	1,719	13%
Iraq	12,766	318	2%
Afghanistan	10,778	241	2%
Syria Arab Republic	6,173	171	3%
Eritrea	5,358	697	13%
Sudan	3,763	872	23%
Vietnam	2,030	653	32%
Egypt	1,603	105	7%
Ethiopia	1,185	152	13%
Other	8,210	556	7%
Total arrivals	83,236	6,210	7%

There were 12,561 Albanian small boat arrivals in 2022. Albanians were the most common small boat nationality referred to the NRM in this period, accounting for just over half (55%) of total small boat NRM referrals in 2022.

Just under one in 8 (12% or 1,467) Albanians who arrived on a small boat in 2022 were referred to the NRM in that period. Of the 1,467 Albanians referred, 1,382 had received a reasonable grounds decision (of which 1,239, or 90%, were positive). Of the 1,239 with positive reasonable grounds decisions, 1,175 were awaiting a conclusive grounds decision and 64 had received a conclusive grounds decision (of which 35, or 55%, were positive).

About the statistics

These statistics should not be used to infer the size of the irregular population in the UK, nor the total number of people entering the UK irregularly. For a number of reasons, it is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population, or the number entering irregularly, and so we have not produced any official estimates for this number.

This is because:

• some irregular migrants will successfully evade border controls and remain in the UK undetected
• some migrants who enter the UK regularly may subsequently become ‘irregular’ migrants – for example if they overstay a visa (it should be noted that there are a number of ways in which a migrant’s departure from the UK may legitimately not be recorded on the system)
• the data sources available count the number of recorded detections - in some instances the same person may be detected multiple times, either on the same route or across different routes (such individuals will be counted multiple times in the statistics)
• some migrants who enter the UK irregularly may subsequently become ‘regular’ migrants – for example following a successful asylum application

Figures on detections may be affected by the levels of operational activity at the border and overseas, so should not be used to infer levels of irregular migration. Changes in detection could be a result of changes in operational activity as well as changes in the number of people attempting to enter the UK irregularly and recording practices.

Small boats

A ‘small boat’ is one of a number of vessels used by individuals who cross the English Channel, with the aim of gaining entry to the UK without a visa or permission to enter – either directly by landing in the UK or having been intercepted at sea by the authorities and brought ashore. The most common small vessels detected making these types of crossings are rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), dinghies and kayaks.

The statistics in this release include individuals who:

• are detected on arrival to the UK
• are detected in the Channel by UK authorities and subsequently brought to the UK

These statistics do not include individuals who:

• arrive on larger vessels, such as go-fast craft, yachts, motor cruisers, tugs and fishing vessels – although these are rarely used by irregular migrants at present
• arrive in the UK clandestinely on larger vessels not referenced above, including where hidden in a vehicle on a ferry
• are prevented from departing France, or those intercepted by French authorities and returned to France
• arrive in the UK undetected, or where there have been reports of people making the crossing, but no actual encounters

In some instances, particularly during periods of high numbers of arrivals, it can take some time for the full information from an asylum claim to be checked and recorded on case working systems. Data on the total number of small boat arrivals (from 2021 onwards) is derived from manual records collated by Border Force officers. More detailed breakdowns (for example, nationality, sex and age) are derived from case working systems, including the asylum application, which take longer to complete. As a result, data for some periods, particularly more recent periods, may have a number of cases where a full breakdown is not yet available.

On 14 April 2022, the government announced that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would take operational command of responding to small boat crossings. The MoD published provisional daily and weekly numbers on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’, from April 2022 to 30 January 2023.

From 31 January 2023 leadership of small boat operations returned to the Home Office. The Home Office publishes provisional daily and weekly numbers since 1 January 2023 on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’. Figures in this report may differ from the provisional daily figures due to more time available for additional information to be recorded and additional quality assurance to be undertaken.

Modern slavery referrals – National Referral Mechanism (NRM)

When referred to the NRM, the Home Office makes a ‘reasonable grounds’ decision on whether an individual could be a victim of modern slavery.

Reasonable grounds decisions are those taken by the competent authorities to determine if there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support if they need it. In England and Wales this support includes accommodation, financial support and other material assistance, legal aid and medical treatment while pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children.

Conclusive grounds decisions are those taken following a positive reasonable grounds decision by the competent authorities as to whether, on the balance of probabilities, there are sufficient grounds to decide that the individual being considered is a victim of modern slavery.

Adults in NRM support in England and Wales who receive a positive conclusive grounds decision receive a minimum of 45 days of ‘move-on’ support, after which they can continue to receive support on a needs-basis until they exit through the Recovery Needs Assessment process. Those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits NRM support.

The Devolved Administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland provide support to victims. In Northern Ireland individuals will receive support for at least 45 days while their case is considered. In Scotland, individuals will receive support for 90 days or until a Conclusive Grounds decision is made, whichever comes sooner; however, in some cases support may be offered beyond the 90 days if a Conclusive Grounds decision has not yet been made.

For further information, see the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

The time periods between National Referral Mechanism statistics collection and these statistics do not align. These statistics relate to the date of arrival into the UK whereas the NRM statistics are based on date of referral into the NRM or date of decision.

Other entry methods

This report also refers to some other modes of irregular entry. Data in these sections is derived from Home Office Management Information. The data is not designed for statistical purposes and should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Each dataset will be subject to a number of unknowns, for example an unknown number of people will evade detection altogether. Additionally, there will be instances where a detection may not be recorded on the system. The extent of these will vary between datasets and as such, it is not possible to compare different datasets, or infer the total number of people attempting to enter irregularly on each route.

Data on inadequately documented air arrivals relates to individuals who intentionally attempt to arrive in the UK via air routes either without adequate documentation or using fraudulent documentation. It does not include passengers who have genuinely made a mistake, lost their documents, or have arrived inadequately documented for reasons outside of their control. It does not include those who were prevented from boarding at their port of embarkation.

Data on recorded detections in the UK relates to detections of individuals outside of the controlled environment of a port, who when encountered are believed by authorities to have evaded border controls to enter the UK clandestinely, up to 72 hours before being detected. It includes detections at the ports serviced by the juxtaposed controls (Dover, Cheriton/Longport and St Pancras).

Data on recorded detections at UK ports includes individuals attempting to enter the UK clandestinely at ports. It includes, for example, those detected at ports in lorries, and shipping containers. It does not include detections at ports that are serviced by the juxtaposed controls or those prevented from leaving their port of embarkation en route to the UK, such as those detected at the juxtaposed controls.

Data tables

Data referred to here can be found in the following tables:

• Irregular migration summary tables
• Detailed irregular migration dataset