SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – roadmap Step 4, 9 June 2021
Statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Paper from SPI-M-O summarising further modelling on easing restrictions for England (Step 4). It was considered at SAGE 92 on 9 June 2021.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 92:
- University of Warwick: Road map scenarios and sensitivity – Step 4, 9 June 2021
- LSHTM: Interim roadmap assessment – prior to Step 4, 9 June 2021
- Imperial College London: Evaluating the roadmap out of lockdown – modelling Step 4 of the roadmap in the context of Delta variant (B.1.617.2), 9 June 2021
It should also be read in the context of the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 9 June 2021, also released under SAGE 92.
This updates earlier SPI-M-O statements on modelling of easing restrictions, such as the most recent SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – roadmap Step 3, 5 May 2021 from SAGE 88.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Figure 2 has been redacted as it includes statistically disclosive and identifiable data. We have provided an alternative Figure 2 for release which conveys a similar point.
Other redactions in this document have been made to remove security markings.
Last updated 13 May 2022 + show all updates
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First published.