Research and analysis

Jet zero: modelling framework

Updates to the Department for Transport’s aviation model.

From:
Department for Transport
Published
21 March 2022

Documents

Jet zero: modelling framework

PDF, 1.81 MB, 60 pages

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Econometric models to estimate demand elasticities for the National Air Passenger Demand Model

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Details

The Department for Transport’s aviation model provided the foundation for the analysis in the:

The model framework was described in detail when a full set of forecasts was last published in 2017.

Recent improvements have focused on bringing the model up to date to accurately represent UK aviation passenger demand, aircraft movements and emissions for 2019, the last normal year of aviation activity before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

The precision in forecasting aviation emissions throughout the period 2020 to 2050 has been further refined.

The supplementary report Econometric Models to Estimate Demand Elasticities for the National Air Passenger Demand Model outlines the results of a major exercise to re-estimate the demand elasticities, which form an important element of the model.

Published 21 March 2022