Transparency data

Estimates of future jobs supported by the Defence Investment Plan

Published 8 July 2026

The Defence Investment Plan (DIP) was released on 30 June 2026. It contained several estimates of UK jobs.

This note has been produced to provide an overview of the methodology used to produce estimates of the number of future direct and indirect jobs^{[footnote 1]} supported by the MOD’s expenditure with UK industry and commerce, given expected future spending levels set out in the DIP. The strengths and limitations of the estimation method are also set out.

This note is part of the Ministry of Defence’s (MOD) commitment to support understanding and prevent misinterpretation by proactively taking an open, clear and accessible approach to the use of data, statistics and wider analysis in the public domain. It is part of our commitment to comply with the Standards for the Public Use of Statistics, Data and Wider Analysis and associated practices.

The jobs forecasts in the DIP have not been released as Official Statistics due to not sufficiently meeting the standards required of the ‘Quality’ pillar in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Overview and expected use

The estimates provide a broad indication of the potential number of jobs that would be supported by the future MOD spend with UK industry and commerce.

To do this we base the estimates on the average spend-per-job in the most recently available data, from 2023/24, which are then projected forward and adjusted. The jobs estimates will be used to support communication of one aspect of the potential impact of defence investment decisions.

Methodology

The estimates of future direct and indirect jobs supported by future MOD spending are based on a top-down approach using data based on the latest available financial year, 2023/24. The key steps are as follows:

1. Estimate the overall spend per Full Time Equivalent (FTE) job, taking into account both Direct and Indirect jobs. 
       Divide MOD’s estimated total spend with UK industry and commerce^{[footnote 2]} by the estimate of total (direct and indirect) UK jobs supported by that spending^{[footnote 3]}. Using 2023/24 figures this results in an average MOD spend of approximately £190,000 per direct job and £238,000 per indirect job supported in UK industry and commerce. 
2. Adjust the spend per job ratio for future years. 
       Using both forecasts of the GDP Deflator^{[footnote 4]} and a UK whole economy productivity forecast produced by the OBR^{[footnote 5]}. 
3. Generate a future spend profile for MOD’s budget. 
       The assumed MOD future budget (Total Defence Expenditure Limit (TDEL)) was based on the December 2025 Strategic Finance planning assumptions plus the additional funding agreed as part of the DIP. 
4. Generate a future spend profile for MOD spend with UK industry and commerce. 
       The assumed future MOD spend with UK industry and commerce has been estimated based on the UK spend proportions of the total budget in previous years. In both 2023/24 and 2024/25^{[footnote 6]} this was 53% and it has been assumed this will remain constant to 2029/30. 
5. Calculate the estimated future jobs in industry and commerce over given periods. 
       The investment in each financial year is divided by the corresponding year’s average spend per job figure. This is then compared against the baseline year (2023/24 MOD published statistics). 

Example results

A worked example of the calculation to estimate direct jobs supported, using hypothetical MOD budgetary figures, is provided below.

Financial Year	Spend per Direct Job	Inflated and Productivity Adjusted Spend per Direct Job	MOD Budget (TDEL)	Proxy: Spend with UK Industry and Commerce (53% of TDEL)	Total Direct Jobs Supported
2023/24	£190,397	[z]	[z]	[z]	[z]
2024/25	[x]	£198,133	[z]	[z]	[z]
2025/26	[x]	£205,453	[z]	[z]	[z]
2026/27	[x]	£211,425	£400,000,000	£212,000,000	1,003
2027/28	[x]	£217,364	£400,000,000	£212,000,000	975
2028/29	[x]	£223,309	£400,000,000	£212,000,000	949
2029/30	[x]	£229,543	£400,000,000	£212,000,000	924

Some shorthand is used in the table above, [x] = not available and [z] = not applicable.

In this hypothetical example, we would forecast that MOD industry and commerce spending would support approximately 924 direct jobs by 2029/30.

Assumptions and quality

Assumptions

• The MOD spend and jobs data used in the calculation includes those related to MOD’s Total Departmental Expenditure Limit (TDEL). 
• We assume that historic spend per jobs figures remains constant in future years. We have then applied adjustments to account for productivity improvements and the impact of inflation. 
• We assume that the recent proportion of MOD spend with UK industry and commerce as a proportion of MOD’s total budget remains constant until 2030 going forward. 
• Published indirect job statistics are estimated using ONS data on UK industry. We assume that MOD requirements on industry and the supply chain will have similar characteristics to the UK as a whole. 

Strengths and limitations

• The chosen methodology creates a straightforward and consistent method for estimating the number of jobs affected by future Defence spending with UK industry and commerce. We do not try to estimate the “crowding out” of jobs elsewhere in the economy. This refers to the likelihood that the defence-related jobs may employ workers who have vacated other jobs. 
• The approach uses underlying data from MOD Official Statistics which have been quality assured. 
• The method requires no judgements to be made on which industry sectors the investment will fall into; these are often unknown. 
• Using the latest available data for spend and jobs (2023/24 at the time of writing) rather than an average over multiple years means the calculations are based on the most recent situation possible. 
• The simplicity of the method could reduce the accuracy of the estimates. There is likely to be considerable disparity in the spend per job in different industry sub-sectors. On the other hand, errors would also have resulted had we attempted to categorise future spending into sub-sectors based on limited information. 
• The estimates are based on TDEL spending rather than Capital Departmental Expenditure Limit (CDEL). We assessed that TDEL spending captures more industry and commerce jobs. 
• We included an adjustment for OBR forecast economy-wide productivity increases, which we assumed would apply to the industry and commerce sectors affected by defence spending. There is no attempt to include an additional estimate of efficiency savings over time, which would likely be expected over the course of longer-term projects. We do not have good data on likely efficiency gains. If they occur, this would reduce the number of jobs being supported by MOD spending with industry and commerce. 

1. Direct jobs refer to those jobs supported within companies receiving payments for goods and services directly from MOD. Indirect jobs are those that occur further down the supply chain through sub-contracting or via suppliers to the direct contractor. ↩

2. Spend with UK industry is sourced from the MOD regional expenditure with industry 2023/24 Official Statistics (Data Tables: Table 1). ↩

3. Jobs supported by MOD expenditure with UK industry and commerce, broken down by direct and indirect, is sourced from MOD supported employment estimates 2023/24 Official Statistics (Data Tables: Table 1). ↩

4. Forecast GDP deflator at market prices is sourced from GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP November 2025 (Budget 2025) (Column D). Outturn data are as at the Quarterly National Accounts from ONS, last updated 30 September 2025. Forecast data are consistent with OBR EFO data as at the Budget 26 November 2025. ↩

5. Trend Productivity is sourced from Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2025 - Office for Budget Responsibility (Annex A: Table A.1: Economy Forecast – Trend Productivity per hour). ↩

6. Proportion of MOD spend that is with UK industry. In the recent Regional Expenditure publication, total spend with UK industry represented 53% of MOD’s TDEL spend in both 2023/24 and 2024/25. We have adjusted the future spend profile of MOD’s budget by 53% to give a proxy spend with UK industry. ↩