Estimated lifetime net fiscal impact of Article 8 main applicants
Published 26 June 2026
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The Home Office produced an indicative estimate of the lifetime net fiscal cost of Article 8 in-country main applicant grantees for the 2025 cohort, using the Migration Advisory Committee lifetime fiscal cost model, alongside internal and published Home Office data on Article 8 volumes.
1. Background
Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights protects the right to respect for private and family life. Within the immigration system, grants made on the basis of Article 8 relate to individuals who are permitted to remain in the UK on the basis that refusal would constitute a disproportionate interference with their private or family life, even where individuals do not meet the requirements of the Immigration Rules, such as Minimum Income and English language.
The Home Office has used the Migration Advisory Committee lifetime fiscal impact model to estimate the long-term fiscal impact of a range of family migration routes. The model estimates the discounted value of taxes paid, less the cost of public services and transfers consumed over an individual’s lifetime. It includes direct, indirect and capital taxes, alongside spending on health, education, welfare and wider public services. It excludes visa fee income and Immigration Health Surcharge contributions.
The model estimates a net lifetime fiscal impact of:
- -£112,000 net cost for the average Family Partner visa grantee (out-of-country)
- -£141,000 net cost for a Family and Private Life grantee (in-country)
The Family and Private Life estimate in paragraph 4 above is used as a proxy for the wider Article 8 cohort. This suggests that Article 8 migrants have a more negative estimated lifetime fiscal impact when compared to the Family Partner route, which is generally associated with lower average fiscal contributions than other migration routes (such as Skilled Worker visas) because they are not selected primarily on economic criteria.
These estimates cover main applicants only and do not include the fiscal impact of their dependants.
2. Methodology
2.1 Considerations
The estimated average lifetime fiscal impact for a Family and Private Life in-country grantee is applied to the 2025 volume of first-time Article 8 main applicant grantees. This produces an indicative estimate of the aggregate lifetime fiscal cost of the 2025 Article 8 main applicant cohort.
This Family and Private Life estimate is used as a proxy for the Article 8 cohort. Fiscal impacts differ across the cohort depending on various factors, such as their age and employment. The use of a single cohort average does not capture variation across the cohort and should be interpreted as an indicative estimate.
2.2 Fiscal impact calculations
This section sets out the approach used to estimate the lifetime net fiscal cost of an Article 8 main applicant.
Overall modelling structure
The dynamic model estimates fiscal impacts across the lifetime of an individual migrant using discounted future values. Formally, the model calculates the present value of all future taxes and spending from arrival until death or emigration, discounted using a real discount rate aligned with HM Treasury Green Book guidance.
The model estimates only the direct fiscal effects of migrants through taxes and spending. It does not attempt to model wider macroeconomic or behavioural effects such as impacts on native wages, productivity, housing markets, public service quality, fertility, or long-run growth.
Data sources
The model combines a range of data sources to estimate lifetime fiscal impacts. These include:
- Family Resources Survey for representative income, benefits and expenditure
- Home Office visa and Certificate of Sponsorship data
- HMRC Real Time Information (RTI) payroll data matched to visa holders
- ONS population projections
- OBR spending profiles and demographic assumptions
- Migrant Journey data to estimate settlement and emigration patterns
- Annual Survey of Hours and Earning (ASHE) data to model age-earnings trajectories
Revenue methodology
On the revenue side, the model estimates direct, indirect and wealth-related taxes over each migrant’s lifetime.
Direct taxes, including income tax and National Insurance contributions, are calculated from observed or imputed earnings using UK tax rules. Future earnings are projected using age-earnings profiles, with migrants assumed to experience similar age-related wage growth to UK workers. The model also includes indirect taxes such as VAT and duties, wealth-related taxes and corporation tax.
Spending methodology
On the spending side, the model allocates a range of public expenditures to migrants over time.
This includes public goods such as defence and infrastructure, which are allocated across the population, as well as spending on health, education, welfare and pensions. Health and social care costs are assigned using age and gender profiles and rise significantly at older ages. In this model, welfare spending is assumed to begin after settlement and converge towards resident patterns. Education spending is allocated by age, and the model also includes an adjustment for public capital to reflect the cost of maintaining infrastructure per person.
Dynamic lifecycle assumptions
The model is dynamic and depends on long-run behavioural assumptions.
Earnings are assumed to follow UK age-earnings curves, with growth slowing later in life. Emigration and settlement probabilities are estimated using Migrant Journey data, while mortality is based on ONS life tables. Future fiscal flows are discounted to present value using a real discount rate of 3%, alongside an assumption on long-run GDP growth of 1.5%. These assumptions are central to the model and introduce uncertainty into the estimated lifetime fiscal impacts.
3. Findings
The model estimates a net lifetime fiscal impact of -£141,000 per main applicant for a Family and Private Life route (in-country) grantee, compared with -£112,000 for the Family Partner grantee.
Table 1: Home Office lifetime fiscal cost estimates and employment assumptions
| Cohort (2022 to 2023) | Fiscal impact per main applicant | Starting earnings (average) | Starting employment rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family and Private Life | -£141,000 | £19,619 | 63% |
| Family Partner | -£112,000 | £21,119 | 50% |
The fiscal impact is directly related to the earnings and employment rates of the cohort, which have been derived by aligning Home Office application datasets with HMRC earnings data.
This suggests the estimated fiscal profile of the Article 8 migrants has a larger negative fiscal lifetime cost when compared to the Family Partner route, which is generally associated with lower average fiscal contributions than other migration routes (for example, Skilled Worker visa holders) because they are not selected primarily on economic criteria. The fiscal impact of the cohort is less favourable over a lifetime than over the standard 10-year appraisal period because fiscal costs and contributions occur unevenly across a lifetime. Migrants are typically more economically active during their working years, while costs associated with healthcare, pensions and wider public services accrue later in life. A lifetime framework therefore captures costs and contributions that would not be fully reflected in a shorter appraisal period.
4. Key caveats and limitations
- these estimates are for main applicants only and exclude dependants
- these estimates are cohort specific and calibrated to 2022/23; estimates may vary for other cohorts
- Family and Private Life (in-country) grants are used as a proxy for the wider Article 8 cohort, which will include other routes which include a consideration of Article 8
- results are sensitive to assumptions on employment, earnings growth, settlement, emigration, mortality, public spending and discounting
- the model does not account for wider macroeconomic effects
- some tax and spending categories require allocation assumptions, including public goods and corporation tax
- future welfare receipt and use of public services are uncertain and are partly modelled using assumptions about convergence toward resident patterns
- the estimate should be interpreted as indicative and assumption sensitive, not as a precise measure of the value or cost of the cohort
5. Volume calculations
According to internal Home Office analysis, in 2025, there were an estimated 34,400 first-time Article 8 main applicant grantees in-country.
| Cohort | Volume |
|---|---|
| First-time Article 8 main applicant grantees in 2025 (in-country) | 34,400 |
6. Combined impact
As the estimate covers a single main applicant Article 8 grantee, the aggregate impact is the volume of first-time in-country Article 8 main applicant grantees multiplied by the estimated average lifetime fiscal cost per main applicant.
| Cohort | Volume | Assumed net lifetime fiscal cost |
|---|---|---|
| First-time Article 8 main applicant grantees in 2025 (in-country) | 34,400 | £4.9 billion |
Calculations: (34,400 first-time in-country Article 8 main applicant grantees in 2025) x (£141,000 net lifetime fiscal cost) = £4.9 billion net cost.
7. Conclusions
Based on the calculations above, the indicative lifetime net fiscal cost of first-time in-country Article 8 main applicant grantees in 2025 is estimated at approximately £4.9 billion.
This estimate relates to main applicants only. It does not include the fiscal impact of dependants associated with the cohort. It should therefore not be interpreted as the total fiscal cost of all individuals linked to Article 8 grants in 2025.
The estimate is subject to significant uncertainty. It relies on long-term assumptions about earnings, employment, settlement, emigration, mortality, public spending and tax receipts. It also depends on allocation assumptions for public goods and taxes and does not capture wider macroeconomic or behavioural effects. Results should therefore be treated as indicative rather than precise estimates of lifetime fiscal impact.