Official Statistics

Alternative Claimant Count statistics January 2013 to May 2020

Published 16 July 2020

The latest release of these statistics can be found in the Alternative Claimant Count statistics collection.

This release of statistics is to 14 May 2020 and includes revisions to previous statistics. Figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated.

Figures and rates from April 2020 onwards show higher levels of claimant unemployment given the impact of coronavirus and the UK Government’s response. To provide additional context on the characteristics of claimants, estimates of the proportion of claimants who are working are included in this release for the first time.

Feedback and queries about the statistics can be sent by email to: stats.consultation-2018@dwp.gov.uk.

1. Main Stories

In the United Kingdom, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in May 2020 was 2.69 million.

This is a:

  • 31.3% increase in the last month
  • 102.0% increase in the last quarter
  • 116.1% increase in the last year
  • 89.6% increase in the last 5 years

Some claimants of unemployment related benefits are wholly unemployed and seeking work, others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support. Of the 2.69 million people claiming unemployment related benefits in May 2020, 14.6% had evidence of earnings or hours worked. In comparison, the employment rate was 16.7% in May 2019 and 12.5% in May 2015.

Over the last month, 842,000 people newly claimed unemployment benefits and 280,000 ceased claiming.

The net increase of 562,000 claimants has led to a substantial increase in the rate of claimant unemployment (as a proportion of the population aged 16 to 64) in May 2020 (6.5%). This is the highest recorded rate seen throughout the entire statistical series (from January 2013).

Of the 2.69 million people in the United Kingdom in May 2020:

  • 243,000 (9%) were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and 2.21 million (82%) were in the Searching for Work conditionality group under Universal Credit – the remaining 235,000 (9%) were ‘additionals’

  • 1.57 million (59%) were male and 1.11 million (43%) were female – in comparison, males represented 52% in May 2019, 2 percentage points lower than in May 2015 (54%)

  • 478,000 (18%) were young people aged 16 to 24 – this compares to 197,000 (16%) in May 2019, and 239,000 (17%) in May 2015

At regional level:

  • the highest claimant unemployment rate in May 2020 was for London at 7.8%
  • the lowest was for the South West at 5.3%

At local authority level (figures not seasonally adjusted):

  • the claimant unemployment rate ranges from 3.0% in the Orkney Islands to 12.6% in Blackpool
  • all local authorities saw a rise in the claimant unemployment rate between May 2019 and 2020

2. What you need to know

The Alternative Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. Before 2013 this was simply the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, since the introduction of Universal Credit from April 2013 the Claimant Count is measured as the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and the number of Universal Credit claimants placed in the ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality group.

Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This is a feature of the design of Universal Credit which brings additional groups of people into ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality to help encourage and support these claimants into work. This has the effect of increasing the Claimant Count irrespective of how the economy performs.

To address this, these Alternative Claimant Count statistics measure the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit began) with the broader span of people this covers, comprising:

  1. Jobseeker’s Allowance.
  2. Universal Credit – Searching for Work conditionality (excluding those on the health journey pre-Work Capability Assessment).
  3. estimates of those additional claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013.

Compared to the ONS Claimant Count, the alternative series provides a more consistent measure of trends in national and local levels of claimant unemployment over time irrespective of the rollout of Universal Credit. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Claimant Count continues to provide an accurate count, at a point in time, of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.

Those claiming unemployment-related benefits may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support.

Enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus mean that an increasing number of people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. Consequently, changes in the Claimant Count may not be due wholly to changes in the number of people who are unemployed.

National and regional figures are seasonally adjusted. The purpose of this is to remove systematic calendar-related variation associated with the time of the year which could otherwise cause misinterpretation of trends within the data. This facilitates comparisons between consecutive time periods, rather than just year-on-year. Our approach to seasonal adjustment is consistent with the approach used by ONS for the Claimant Count. About these statistics contains more information about the process used.

The Alternative Claimant Count series starts from January 2013. Over a longer period, the Labour Force Survey provides a consistent measure of unemployment at national and regional level. Trends over time for local areas can be considered using the Claimant Count prior to 2013, and the Alternative Claimant Count from 2013. However, the figures cannot be directly compared as they are defined differently (figure 1).

Figure 1: Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, United Kingdom, June 2006 to May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, United Kingdom, June 2006 to May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics and Labour Force Survey.

Figure 2 illustrates the differences between the Alternative Claimant Count and the Claimant Count at a local level. The Alternative Claimant Count models what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013 to provide more meaningful insights to changes in the local labour market. For Newcastle-upon-Tyne (which was one of the first local authorities to roll out Universal Credit Full Service to new claimants in May 2016), the Claimant Count subsequently rose as more people were brought within Searching for Work conditionality. But this was irrespective of changes in the local labour market and gave misleading rises in local unemployment estimates. Under Universal Credit, claimants are assigned to conditionality groups which translate to the work-related tasks the individual must do in order to fulfil entitlement conditions. The Searching for Work conditionality group comprises those people who are not working, or have very low earnings. The claimant is required to take action to secure work/better paid work.

It is possible that the Claimant Count can surpass the Alternative Claimant Count in local areas, most usually areas where Universal Credit had been rolled out early. The Alternative Claimant Count includes estimates of those additional claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013, but removes claimants on the health journey pre-Work Capability Assessment. Initially, this will cause the Alternative Claimant Count to show larger figures than the Claimant Count, as there will be more additional claimants included than health journey cases removed. However, as Universal Credit rolls out over time and the additional claimants begin to transition to Universal Credit, this weighting begins to shift.

Figure 2: Newcastle-upon-Tyne local authority: Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count, January 2013 to May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Newcastle-upon-Tyne local authority: Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count, January 2013 to May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics.

3. United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in May 2020 was 2.69 million. This is a 116.1% increase from May 2019.

Figure 3 shows the fall in Jobseeker’s Allowance both before Universal Credit roll out (linked to an improving labour market), during Universal Credit roll out (linked to the transition of claims to Universal Credit), and the recent upturn (primarily linked to the coronavirus pandemic). At May 2020, over 4 in 5 claimants of unemployment benefits were covered by the Universal Credit Searching for Work conditionality group (79%). In comparison, at May 2019 just over half of all claimants (55%) were in this group.

Number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by type of claimant, United Kingdom, January 2013 to May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

Notes about figure 3.

  1. ‘additionals’ comprise claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013.

To put these figures into context, figure 4 shows the claimant unemployment rate as a proportion of the population aged 16 to 64 by gender since January 2013.

The overall rate in May 2020 was 6.5%, a rise of 3.5 percentage points compared to May 2019 and 3.1 percentage points compared to May 2015.

Figure 4: Monthly claimant unemployment rate by gender, United Kingdom, January 2013 to May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Monthly claimant unemployment rate by gender, United Kingdom, January 2013 to May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

Gender

Figure 5 shows how the gender split of claimants began to equalise over time but has since shown a sharp rise in male claimants in the most recent year. In May 2015, 54% of claimants were male. Over time, that proportion gradually decreased to around 52% in May 2019 but has since risen to 59% in May 2020.

Month Male Female Total
May 2020 1,572,000 1,114,000 2,686,000
May 2019 652,000 591,000 1,243,000
May 2018 653,000 598,000 1,251,000
May 2017 671,000 608,000 1,279,000
May 2016 707,000 613,000 1,320,000
May 2015 767,000 650,000 1,417,000

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

Age

Youth claimant unemployment (those aged 16 to 24) was 478,000 in May 2020 (18% of total claimant unemployment), up 2 percentage points from the same time last year.

Additionals

The additional group of unemployed claimants are estimates of those who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013. This covers:

  • people who are not in work but previously claimed Housing Benefit only, this means did not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance
  • people whose household previously claimed Child Tax Credit from HMRC, but are not themselves earning more than the Universal Credit administrative earnings threshold; and nor do they have responsibility as the main carer for their child
  • people who are the partner of a claimant of Employment and Support Allowance or Income Support, but who do not themselves have caring responsibilities, a disability or a limitation on their ability to work

Of the 2.69 million people claiming unemployment benefits in May 2020, 235,000 (9%) were ‘additionals’.

The largest group of additionals (57%) were those people not in work but claiming Housing Benefit only.

Figure 6: Additional claimants by type of claimant, United Kingdom, May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Month Child Tax Credits (%) Housing Benefit only (%) Partner of IS claimant (%) Partner of ESA claimant (%) Other Additionals (%)
May 2020 37.1 57.3 0.5 5.0 0.2

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

4. Regional

Of the 2.69 million people claiming unemployment benefits in May 2020, over a sixth (466,000) were living in London. The next highest region was the North West with 326,000, followed by the South East with 302,000.

Compared to May 2019, all regions that saw increases in claimant unemployment. The North East saw the smallest increase at 68.9%, whilst the South East saw the largest increase of 158.3% on the previous year.

The highest claimant unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in May 2020 was for London (7.8%). The next highest was for the North East (7.4%). The region with the lowest claimant unemployment rate was the South West (5.3%). See figure 7 for more information on other regions.

Figure 7: Claimant unemployment rate by region, United Kingdom, May 2020, seasonally adjusted

Region Claimant unemployment rate (%) Change on year (percentage point)
North East 7.4 3.0
North West 7.2 3.7
Yorkshire and the Humber 6.7 3.3
East Midlands 5.8 3.2
West Midlands 7.4 3.6
East 5.7 3.4
London 7.8 4.5
South East 5.4 3.3
South West 5.3 3.2
Wales 6.3 3.2
Scotland 6.1 3.0
Northern Ireland 5.6 2.7

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics

5. Local area

In May 2020, the highest claimant unemployment rate across all local authorities was Blackpool (12.6%). It was also one of the top 3 local authorities with the largest percentage point rise since May 2019 (up 6.2 percentage points). The next highest was Thanet followed by Birmingham (both 11.2%).

The local authorities with the lowest claimant unemployment rates were the Orkney Islands (3.0%), Shetland Islands (3.2%) and Richmondshire (3.3%).

Figure 8 shows a map of claimant unemployment rates by local authority in May 2020. It shows 5 bands each containing approximately 76 (20%) local authorities.

The bottom quintile (light blue) shows the group of local authorities which have the lowest claimant unemployment rates.

The top quintile (dark blue) shows the group of local authorities which have the highest claimant unemployment rates in the United Kingdom. This view allows for better comparison of claimant unemployment rates across local authorities irrespective of the rollout of Universal Credit.

Figure 8: Claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), United Kingdom, May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), United Kingdom, May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

View the information in figure 8 as an interactive map.

Notes about figure 8.

  1. data is banded using quintiles. This means group ranges are calculated to split local authorities evenly, so 20% of local authorities fit into each group.

  2. rates are calculated by dividing the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in a local authority by the population aged 16 to 64 in that local authority.

  3. rates have been calculated using the mid-2018 population estimates as, at the time of release, this was the latest data available.

  4. care should be taken on interpreting local authorities with small figures as this can have larger impacts on the rate and rate of change.

  5. Figures are not seasonally adjusted.

Figure 8 shows a number of areas in the top quintile including most of London, eastern parts of the North East, southern parts of the North West, southern parts of Yorkshire and the Humber, south western parts of Scotland, coastal areas within the South East, and finally Birmingham.

In contrast, the bottom quintile covers areas including the majority of the East, South East and the West Midlands.

Figure 9 shows a map of the change of claimant unemployment rate between May 2019 and May 2020 by local authority.

Figure 9: Change in claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), United Kingdom, May 2019 to May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Change in claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), United Kingdom, May 2019 to May 2020, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

View the information in figure 9 as an interactive map.

Notes about figure 9.

  1. read the notes about figure 8.

  2. figures are based on percentage point rate of change between May 2019 and May 2020.

Across all local authorities, there was a rise in the claimant unemployment rate between May 2019 and 2020.

Haringey saw the largest percentage point increase in claimant unemployment rate over the last year (6.6 percentage points). Newham saw the second largest rise (6.3 percentage points) followed by Blackpool (6.2 percentage points).

The smallest increase was in the Orkney Islands (1.6 percentage points), followed by the Shetland Islands (1.7 percentage points) and Richmondshire (1.9 percentage points).

6. Flows

Stat-Xplore includes newly published standardised statistics on On-flows and Off-flows.

On-flows: the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in one month, who were not claiming in the previous month.

Off-flows: the number of people no longer claiming unemployment related benefits in one month, who were claiming in the previous month.

These statistics are available by month (February 2013 to May 2020), by local area, benefit type and by age and gender. They offer some insights to users on monthly changes in a local area – for example the proportion of the Count which represents new claims in the previous month, and the off-flow rate – a measure of how the local labour market is performing.

Figure 10 shows the number of on-flows and off-flows, along with the net number of flows for each month.

Figure 10: Flows between claimant unemployment, United Kingdom, February 2013 to May 2020, standardised and seasonally adjusted

Flows between claimant unemployment, United Kingdom, February 2013 to May 2020, standardised and seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count on-flow and off-flow statistics.

The statistics released in Stat-Xplore allows users to produce local area analyses of flows over time.

7. About these statistics

The statistics are experimental Official Statistics, badged as provisional (for the latest 3 months) and are subject to revision in future releases.

Estimates of claimants in work: Those claiming unemployment-related benefits may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support.

Enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus mean that some additional people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. The reduction in individual worker’s pay, as a result of the government schemes to protect businesses (Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self Employed Income Support Scheme), may have also increased the number of employed people eligible for UC through their earnings falling below income thresholds. Some of these claims will fall within the work search conditionality group within UC.

Figures are estimates; using evidence of claimants’ earnings/hours worked in their latest assessment period to estimate the proportion who are jobless and those who are (or have recently been) working (excluding those self-employed). Figures include those with reported Pay as you Earn (PAYE) income in their most recent UC Assessment Period, those reporting part-time hours worked on Jobseeker’s Allowance, and hours worked/income from earnings from those on Child Tax Credits or Housing Benefit.

Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare changes over time that are not driven by seasonal factors, the data has been seasonally adjusted. This allows for comparisons between consecutive time periods, for example, to the previous quarter or month. All figures stated in this statistical release are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. Figures at local authority level and below are not seasonally adjusted as a meaningful multiplicative model which contains other metrics cannot be produced at such a low level of data.

The background and methodology document provides a fuller explanation on the purpose, coverage, construction, sources and limitations of the statistics. For example, this includes an explanation of why the back series starts in 2013 (linked to data availability) and on how the claimant unemployment rates have been calculated.

Lead Statistician: Luke Stockham

ISBN: 978-1-78659-225-5