Official Statistics

Alternative Claimant Count statistics, Great Britain: January 2013 to May 2019

Updated 19 July 2019

The latest release of these statistics can be found in the Alternative Claimant Count statistics collection.

1. Introduction

The Alternative Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.

Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This is a feature of the design of Universal Credit and has the effect of increasing the Claimant Count irrespective of how the economy performs. For this reason, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have stated that the figures are no longer a reliable economic indicator.

To address this, these new Alternative Claimant Count experimental statistics measure the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit began) with the broader span of people this covers.

The statistics thus provide:

  • a consistent measure of local levels of claimant unemployment over time and across areas
  • a better indication of labour market change

For the first time, national and regional figures have been seasonally adjusted. The purpose of this is to remove systematic calendar-related variation associated with the time of the year which could otherwise cause misinterpretation of trends within the data. This facilitates comparisons between consecutive time periods, rather than just year-on-year. Our approach to seasonal adjustment is consistent with the approach used by ONS for the Claimant Count. About these statistics contains more information about the process used.

The Alternative Claimant Count series starts from January 2013. Over a longer period, the Labour Force Survey provides a consistent measure of unemployment at national and regional level. Trends over time for local areas can be considered using the Claimant Count prior to 2013, and the Alternative Claimant Count from 2013. However, the figures cannot be directly compared as they are defined differently (figure 1).

Figure 1: Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, May 2005 to 2019, seasonally adjusted

Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, May 2005 to 2019, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics and Labour Force Survey.

Figure 2 illustrates the differences between the Alternative Claimant Count and the Claimant Count at a local level. For Newcastle-upon-Tyne (which was one of the first local authorities to roll out Universal Credit Full Service to new claimants in May 2016), the Claimant Count subsequently rose as more people were brought within Searching for Work conditionality. This was irrespective of changes in the local labour market. Under Universal Credit, claimants are assigned to conditionality groups which translate to the work-related tasks the individual must do in order to fulfil entitlement conditions. The Searching for Work conditionality group comprises those people who are not working, or have very low earnings. The claimant is required to take action to secure work/better paid work.

These new statistics measure claimant unemployment in Newcastle-upon-Tyne by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013. Changes in the series over time and comparison to other areas thus provide more meaningful insights to changes in the local labour market.

Figure 2: Newcastle-upon-Tyne local authority: Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count, January 2013 to May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Newcastle-upon-Tyne local authority: Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count, January 2013 to May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics.

2. Main story

In Great Britain, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in May 2019 was 1.23 million.

This is a:

  • 0.8% increase in the last month
  • 0.2% decrease in the last quarter
  • 3.0% increase in the last year
  • 26.4% decrease in the last 5 years

The claimant unemployment rate (as a proportion of the population aged 16 to 64) in May 2019 was 3.0%.

This rate has:

  • remained broadly consistent compared to May 2018 (2.9%)
  • fallen by 1.2 percentage points compared to May 2014 (4.2%)

Of the 1.23 million people in Great Britain in May 2019:

  • 204,000 (17%) were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and 715,000 (58%) were in the Searching for Work conditionality group under Universal Credit – the remaining 308,000 were ‘additionals’

  • 651,000 (53%) were male and 577,000 (47%) were female – in comparison, males also represented 53% in May 2018, 3 percentage points lower than in May 2014

  • 199,000 (16%) were young people aged 16 to 24 – this compares to 182,000 (15%) in May 2018, and 317,000 (19%) in May 2014

At regional level:

  • the highest claimant unemployment rate in May 2019 was for the North East at 4.5%
  • the lowest was for the South East at 2.1%

At local authority level (figures not seasonally adjusted):

  • the claimant unemployment rate ranges from 0.7% in the Isles of Scilly to 6.8% in Birmingham
  • just over a quarter (98) of all local authorities saw a fall in the claimant unemployment rate between May 2018 and 2019

3. What you need to know

The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. Before 2013 this was simply the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance.

Since the introduction of Universal Credit from April 2013 the Claimant Count is measured as the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and the number of Universal Credit claimants placed in the ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality group.

However, as more people are brought within the coverage of the Claimant Count, the Claimant Count is set to rise noticeably over time and will happen irrespective of how the economy performs. This is a feature of the design of Universal Credit which brings additional groups of people into ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality to help encourage and support these claimants into work. Examples of these people are partners of claimants or people who previously only claimed Housing Benefit or Child Tax Credits.

As a result, the ONS withdrew the Claimant Count from their national Labour Market Statistics Bulletin in March 2017, stating that the Claimant Count was no longer a reliable economic indicator. ONS stated that the change in composition of the count could leave users with a misleading representation of changes in the labour market.

To address this, these new statistics show the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits comprising:

  1. Jobseeker’s Allowance
  2. Universal Credit – Searching for Work conditionality (excluding those on the health journey pre-Work Capability Assessment)
  3. estimates of those additional claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013

This last group includes:

  • people who are not in work but previously claimed Housing Benefit only, this means did not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance
  • people whose household previously claimed Child Tax Credit from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), but are not themselves earning more than the Universal Credit administrative earnings threshold; and nor do they have responsibility as the main carer for their child
  • people who are the partner of a claimant of Employment and Support Allowance or Income Support, but who do not themselves have caring responsibilities, a disability or a limitation on their ability to work

This consistent claimant unemployment series thus provides a better indicator of local labour market change over time than the Claimant Count.

4. Great Britain

In Great Britain, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in May 2019 was 1.23 million. This is a 3.0% increase from May 2018.

Figure 3 shows the fall in Jobseeker’s Allowance both before Universal Credit roll out (linked to an improving labour market), and during Universal Credit roll out (linked to the transition of claims to Universal Credit). At May 2019, the Universal Credit Searching for Work conditionality group covered 58% of all claimants. In comparison, at May 2018 only 31% were in this group.

Number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by type of claimant, January 2013 to May 2019, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

Notes about figure 3.

  1. ‘additionals’ comprise claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013.

To put these figures into context, figure 4 shows the claimant unemployment rate as a proportion of the population aged 16 to 64 by gender since January 2013.

The overall rate in May 2019 was 3.0%, broadly consistent with May 2018 (2.9%). It has fallen by 1.2 percentage points compared to May 2014.

Figure 4: Monthly claimant unemployment rate by gender, January 2013 to May 2019, seasonally adjusted

Monthly claimant unemployment rate by gender, January 2013 to May 2019, seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

Gender

Figure 5 shows how the gender split of claimants is equalising over time. In May 2014, 56% of claimants were male. Over time, that proportion gradually decreased to around 53% in May 2019.

Month Male Female Total
May 2019 651,000 577,000 1,228,000
May 2018 628,000 565,000 1,192,000
May 2017 638,000 568,000 1,206,000
May 2016 665,000 570,000 1,235,000
May 2015 720,000 606,000 1,326,000
May 2014 928,000 740,000 1,668,000

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

Age

Youth claimant unemployment (those aged 16 to 24) was 199,000 in May 2019 (16% of total claimant unemployment), up 1 percentage point from the same time last year.

Additionals

The additional group of unemployed claimants are estimates of those who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013. This covers:

  • people who are not in work but previously claimed Housing Benefit only, this means did not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance
  • people whose household previously claimed Child Tax Credit from HMRC, but are not themselves earning more than the Universal Credit administrative earnings threshold; and nor do they have responsibility as the main carer for their child
  • people who are the partner of a claimant of Employment and Support Allowance or Income Support, but who do not themselves have caring responsibilities, a disability or a limitation on their ability to work

Of the 1.23 million people claiming unemployment benefits in May 2019, 308,000 (25%) were ‘additionals’.

The largest group of additionals (61%) were those people not in work but claiming Housing Benefit only.

Figure 6: Additional claimants by type of claimant, May 2019, seasonally adjusted

Month Child Tax Credits (%) Housing Benefit only (%) Partner of IS claimant (%) Partner of ESA claimant (%) Other Additionals (%)
May 2019 34.2 60.8 0.5 4.3 0.3

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.

5. Regional

Of the 1.23 million people claiming unemployment benefits in May 2019, almost a sixth (199,000) were living in London. The next highest region was the North West with 163,000, followed by the West Midlands with 142,000.

Compared to May 2018, all regions except Scotland saw increases. The South East saw the largest increase of 5.9% on the previous year, followed by the West Midlands at 4.9% and the South West at 4.7%.

The highest claimant unemployment rate in Great Britain in May 2019 was for the North East (4.5%). The next highest was for the West Midlands (3.9%). The region with the lowest claimant unemployment rate was the South East (2.1%). See figure 7 for more information on other regions.

Figure 7: Claimant unemployment rate by region, May 2019, seasonally adjusted

Region Claimant unemployment rate (%) Change on year
North East 4.5 0.0
North West 3.6 0.2
Yorkshire and the Humber 3.4 0.0
East Midlands 2.6 0.0
West Midlands 3.9 0.2
East 2.3 0.1
London 3.3 0.1
South East 2.1 0.1
South West 2.2 0.1
Wales 3.2 0.0
Scotland 3.2 0.0

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics

6. Local area

In May 2019, the highest claimant unemployment rate across all local authorities was Birmingham (6.8%). It was also one of the top 5 local authorities with the largest percentage point rise since May 2018 (up 0.4 percentage points). The next highest was Middlesborough (6.6%) followed by Wolverhampton (6.5%).

The local authorities with the lowest rates were the Isles of Scilly (0.7%), Hart (1.0%) and South Northamptonshire (1.1%).

Figure 8 shows a map of claimant unemployment rates by local authority in May 2019. It shows 5 bands each containing 76 (20%) local authorities.

The bottom quintile (light blue) shows the group of local authorities which have the lowest claimant unemployment rates.

The top quintile (dark blue) shows the group of local authorities which have the highest claimant unemployment rates in Great Britain. This view allows for better comparison of claimant unemployment rates across local authorities irrespective of the rollout of Universal Credit.

Figure 8: Claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

View the information in figure 8 as an interactive map.

Notes about figure 8.

  1. data is banded using quintiles. This means group ranges are calculated to split local authorities evenly, so 20% of local authorities fit into each group.

  2. rates are calculated by dividing the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in a local authority by the population aged 16 to 64 in that local authority.

  3. rates for May 2019 have been calculated using the mid-2018 population estimates as, at the time of release, this was the latest data available.

  4. care should be taken on interpreting local authorities with small figures as this can have larger impacts on the rate and rate of change.

Figure 8 shows a number of areas in the top quintile including parts of the North East, southern parts of the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, northern and southern parts of Wales, south western parts of Scotland and areas within the South East, Birmingham and London.

In contrast, the bottom quintile covers areas including the majority of the East, South East and the West Midlands.

Figure 9 shows a map of the change of claimant unemployment rate between May 2018 and May 2019 by local authority.

Figure 9: Change in claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), May 2018 to May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Change in claimant unemployment rate by local authority (quintiles), May 2018 to May 2019, not seasonally adjusted

Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.

View the information in figure 9 as an interactive map.

Notes about figure 9.

  1. read the notes about figure 8.

  2. figures are based on percentage point rate of change between May 2018 and May 2019.

Hyndburn saw the largest percentage point increase in claimant unemployment rate over the last year (0.5 percentage points). Manchester saw the second largest rise, followed by Birmingham (both 0.4 percentage points).

Across all local authorities, 98 (26%) saw a fall in their claimant unemployment rate between May 2018 and 2019. The largest decrease was in Hartlepool (0.7 percentage points), followed by North East Lincolnshire (0.5 percentage points) and Blaenau Gwent (0.4 percentage points).

7. About these statistics

The statistics are experimental Official Statistics, badged as provisional (for the latest 3 months) and are subject to revision in future releases.

Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare changes over time that are not driven by seasonal factors, the data has been seasonally adjusted. This allows for comparisons between consecutive time periods, for example, to the previous quarter or month. All figures stated in this statistical release are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated.

The background and methodology document provides a fuller explanation on the purpose, coverage, construction, sources and limitations of the statistics. For example, this includes an explanation of why the back series starts in 2013 (linked to data availability) and on how the claimant unemployment rates have been calculated.

Lead statistician: Luke Stockham