The author uses a dynamic microsimulation model to analyse the
distributional effects of an expansion of education in Côte d'Ivoire in
the medium and long term (1998-2015). The simulations are performed in
order to replicate several policies in force or subject to debate in
this country. Various hypotheses concerning the evolution of returns to
education and labour demand are tested. The direct effects between
education and income as well as the different transmission channels,
such as occupational choices, fertility, and household composition, are
analysed. The effects of the expansion of education on the growth of
household incomes, their distribution and poverty depend very crucially
on the hypothesis made on the evolution of returns to education and
labour demand. If returns to education remain constant and the labour
market segmented, the effects will be very modest.
The medium and long term effects of an expansion of education on poverty in Côte d’Ivoire. A dynamic micro-simulation study, presented at Staying Poor: Chronic Poverty and Development Policy, Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, 7-9 April 2003. Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC), Manchester, UK, 44 pp.