Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia
- Department for International Development
- 1 January 2014
- Document Type:
- Journal Article
- Food and Nutrition
- Hay, S.I., Robinson, T.P., Bhatt, S., Martin, V., Gilbert, M. Gething, P.W., Farrar, J.J., Golding, N., Guo Danhuai, Hang Zhou, Huang Zhi, Jiang Hui, Lai Shengjie, Linard, C., Messina, J.P., Sheng Zhou, Tatem, A.J., van Boeckel, T.P., Xiao Xiangming, Yu Hongjie, and William Wint, G.R.
Two epidemic waves of an avian influenza A (H7N9) virus have so far affected China. Most human cases have been attributable to poultry exposure at live-poultry markets, where most positive isolates were sampled. The potential geographic extent of potential re-emerging epidemics is unknown, as are the factors associated with it. Using newly assembled data sets of the locations of 8,943 live-poultry markets in China and maps of environmental correlates, we develop a statistical model that accurately predicts the risk of H7N9 market infection across Asia. Local density of live-poultry markets is the most important predictor of H7N9 infection risk in markets, underscoring their key role in the spatial epidemiology of H7N9, alongside other poultry, land cover and anthropogenic predictor variables. Identification of areas in Asia with high suitability for H7N9 infection enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and control, helping to restrict the spread of this important disease.
Gilbert, M.; Golding, N.; Hang Zhou; William Wint, G.R.; Robinson, T.P.; Tatem, A.J.; Lai Shengjie; Sheng Zhou; Jiang Hui; Guo Danhuai; Huang Zhi; Messina, J.P.; Xiao Xiangming; Linard, C.; van Boeckel, T.P.; Martin, V.; Bhatt, S.; Gething, P.W.; Farrar, J.J.; Hay, S.I.; Yu Hongjie. Predicting the risk of avian influenza A H7N9 infection in live-poultry markets across Asia. Nature Communications (2014) 5: 7 pp. [DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5116]
Published: 1 January 2014
Document Type: Journal Article
Theme: Food and Nutrition
Authors: Hay, S.I. Robinson, T.P. Bhatt, S. Martin, V. Gilbert, M. Gething, P.W. Farrar, J.J. Golding, N. Guo Danhuai Hang Zhou Huang Zhi Jiang Hui Lai Shengjie Linard, C. Messina, J.P. Sheng Zhou Tatem, A.J. van Boeckel, T.P. Xiao Xiangming Yu Hongjie William Wint, G.R.